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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Best armor available
Posted by: McQ
 
This, to me, is probably the most interesting story of the entire fair.

Let me set the stage. Three young men, Kirby Knowles, Stanley Chu and Tyler French, all attending Dutchtown High School in beautiful Hampton GA, are in a literature class together. The teacher assigns a project concerning current events. At the time, the problem of Dragon Skin's armor was in the news, and the argument of which was better for our troops - Dragon Skin or Pinnacle.

As you might imagine, the controversy captured the imagination of young men who also saw the possibility of turning their literature project into an upcoming science project.

When you see the work they've done, you too will be impressed.

The "bullet stopping" ability of an armor vest is found in the boron carbon plates they use. Boron carbon is the second hardest compound on earth, with diamonds being the hardest. It is formed into a ceramic by intense pressure giving it a strength of armor grade steel.

When the young men looked into the design of the plates, they found that they were formed in about 1.5 inch diameter circles which were concave. The plates overlapped thus giving the wearer the flexibility to move.

You can see a the present design in the picture below. The white circles on the right are the present system.


But, they discovered as they researched present armor technology, there are some drawbacks with the concave system. One was ricochet. If the plate didn't completely absorb the round, the concave shape meant it would ricochet away. Hopefully it wouldn't ricochet into the limbs of the soldier wearing the vest, but experience said that's exactly what happened at times. Additionally, if it hit at the joint of the plates, it could also be injurious.

So the goal of Knowles, Chu and French's experiment was to see if they could find a way to improve on the ballistic plates by testing the geometric shapes of aluminum plates while still keeping the ballistic plates flexibility.

What you see laying on the table in the picture below are the aluminum plates they used. On the right is the plate which represents the present design. During a brain-storming session, the suggestion was made to make one that is the exact opposite - convex. They did that and tried it out. That led to the design of the hybrid plate you see laying on the left.


The young men then took their idea and put it into AutoCad, refining the design. You can see the final design below.


They also designed a system to test the design. First they used a class II HeNe laser to test the design of the plates and chart the probable ricochet of each round. They did 30 trials for each plate.

The laser trial showed that the hybrid convex-concave model had he least angle deviation, with an average of 24.7 degrees, while the present design showed angle deviations up to 42.2 degrees.

The second part of their test involved using high powered pneumatic .177 cal BB gun. You can see the control box they built to safely fire the gun sitting in front of the laser.

The gun testing confirmed what they'd found with the laser. The hybrid convex-concave plate was superior in directing ricochets away from the wearer and providing even more protection than the present design.

And, as an unintended but positive consequence, they found that the design enabled the plates of the hybrid design to interlock better (the lip giving the plates overlapping it something with which to grip while maintaining desired flexibility).

I really enjoyed talking with these young men and I'm of the opinion what they've done is both impressive and important. Hopefully, with enough visibility, this design will find its way into the vests our soldiers are wearing. If they do, it will be because three young men got excited about a literature cum science project and turned their interest into something which may, in the near future, save soldier's lives.


 

Permalink | Comments ( 3 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Professional Blogging

 
QandO
 
Hybrid lawnmower
Posted by: McQ
 
Jonathan Soli, 18, a Senior at Alden-Conger High School in Alden MN got to wondering one day if he could engineer a system that uses the gases produced by the electrolysis of water to improve the performance of a single cylinder four-cycle lawnmower.

OK, formally, it was a "single cylinder, four-cycle internal combustion engine", but heck, it was his lawnmower he was going to modify.

So he built an electrolysis apparatus and attached it to the air-intake on his dad's 3.5 hp lawnmower engine, and low and behold, it ran rather well. The apparatus he'd built used 21 stainless steel plates suspended in an electrolytic solution.

Great. So now that he knew it worked, he had to figure out how well it worked. To do that, he built his own data collection system. Seriously. To include designing and etching the circuit board himself.



Ok. Electrolysis apparatus built and functioning. Check. Data collection system built and functioning. Check. Oh, how about software to collect and analyze the data?

No problem. Jonathan wrote his own. So other than not having the ability to weld stainless steel (he say he can do regular welding), Soli built every bit of this project himself.

The results? Well they weren't bad at all. Doing about 100 data collecting runs, Soli found the average efficiency of his system (the electrolysis apparatus) was 76+%. And, as expected, the H2 + O2 lowered the engine's fuel consumption and thereby lowered CO2 emissions. In fact, the reductions were rather startling over all those runs - an average of 22.7% improvement in fuel efficiency and a 28.6% reduction in CO2 emissions.

Imagine the savings such a system could bring with optimized fuel carburetion and system design. All from wondering what would happen if he stuck his electrolytic gizmo on pop's lawnmower.

 

Permalink | Comments ( 1 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Professional Blogging

 
QandO
 
Meet Morgan A Walti
Posted by: McQ
 
Morgan is an 18 year old senior from liberty high school in Hillsboro OR and he's built a bio-mechanical (bionic) arm.



First take a close look at the picture and you'll see three things. Below the arm you'll see what look like Legos. Well, as a matter of fact, they are Legos. It is from a multiple of Lego models that Morgan finally was able to build a rather good representation of how the arm and wrist work.

Above that you see the working bionic arm he built using electromagnetic solenoids. And, to the right, you see a glove with various and sundry electrodes and wires protruding from it.

When asked what inspired his project, Morgan said, with a smile, reading too many Sci-Fi books.

Stock up parents.

Once he felt he had successfully built his Lego model to mimic arm and wrist movement, he had to design a metal skeletal frame that faithfully duplicated the proper proportions of the human arm. He said for quite some time his arm had measurement marks all over it as he built the components of his bionic arm to match is own.

Because his idea was to replace servo motors and hydraulic and pneumatic systems which had been used previously (and proved very cumbersome) with the electromagnetic solenoids as actuators (which generate substantial magnetic fields), his frame had to be constructed with aluminum and polymer components in order to minimize loss. He was also faced with developing solenoids that provide the best mechanical force to temperature ratio. What you see in the picture is the result.

What he found was that the frame was sufficient and functioned mechanically like a human arm. However, while the solenoids were able to move the fingers, the original solenoids for the wrist weren't powerful enough to move the wrist. More powerful solenoids were constructed and did move the wrist.

Remarkable stuff. Obviously, this is a work in progress and Walti says further work will include the construction of stronger, more versatile frame, the integration of stronger joints and the investigation of more powerful solenoids.

Imagine this sort of technology leading, at some point in the future, to smart prosthetics which can be fitted to our returning injured heroes.

And all from reading too many Sci-Fi books.



Full size pics here:

Show/Hide
 

Permalink | Comments ( 3 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Professional Blogging

 
QandO
 
Doin’ the ISEF thing
Posted by: McQ
 
Three quick images from ISEF.

You can always draw a crowd with dog poop.



I share a spelling trait with some very smart people.



Pins trading is popular.

 

Permalink | Comments ( 0 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Professional Blogging

 
QandO
 
Congressional Questions about Domestic Spying
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
Congress is looking into domestic spying. Sen. Specter, citing "the public's interests", said that it is "up to Congress to investigate and take corrective action; there might be hearings."

Finally, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Congress is taking its oversight responsibility seriously, and asking the important questions about some of the most serious issues facing America.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 5 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Congress

 
QandO
 
Those endangered polar bears
Posted by: McQ
 
I'm certainly not averse to taking steps to save a real endangered species - reasonable steps of course. But I prefer the species actually be endangered, not just one which fits in nicely with the overall scheme of an agenda - like AGW. That description, as far as I can tell would fit polar bears:
Polar bears are not the fragile, vulnerable creatures of liberal iconography. They have thrived in the Arctic for thousands of years, both through periods when their sea-ice habitat was smaller, and larger, than it is now. They will continue to adapt - and the Endangered Species Act can't make the slightest difference.

Such realities haven't prevented green showboaters from claiming victory after the Bush Administration designated the polar bear as a "threatened" species yesterday. And it is a kind of victory, though the ruling itself is mostly symbolic - at least for now. However, this is really the triumph of bad legislation over the democratic process.
The WSJ's point is important as it points to a movement really just getting started within our legislative process. Polar bears are only a sign of what is to come if any of the three present presidential candidates gain office. Science, for all the complaints the left has about the current administration ignoring it, isn't the basis of the legislation. Nor will it be if we start talking about carbon taxes or cap and trade programs.

If science were the basis for the legislation making polar bears a threatened species, you'd think this from Dr. Mitchell Taylor and Dr. Martha Dowsley in the SPPI report on polar bears:
Although two polar bear subpopulations (Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort Sea) no longer appear to be viable due to reduction in sea ice habitat, polar bears as a species do not appear to be threatened by extinction in the foreseeable future from either a demographic or an ecological perspective.

[...]

Current and historical polar bear subpopulation performance demonstrates that viable polar bear subpopulations have persisted and generally increased throughout the current period of climate warming ...

The popular notion that polar bears are declining or already expatriated worldwide has been initiated and perpetuated by environmental organizations and individuals who apparently believe that current subpopulation numbers and trends are an insufficient basis for an appropriate status determination. ... Anecdotal information, although useful and interesting, is not equivalent to scientific information based on valid statistical analysis of sample data.
But when politicians with low, even abysmal, popularity ratings see a fairly easy and low-cost (to them) way of pandering to a special interest group, science is not going to stand in their way.

The WSJ points to the real danger, of course:
The greatest danger is that this ruling will be distorted by the courts, where it is inevitably headed. On the other hand, not listing the polar bear would have proceeded to litigation too, with potentially worse consequences. Climate-change lawsuits have already deformed the Clean Air Act, the National Environmental Policy Act and others.
And anyone who doesn't believe the same won't happen in this case just isn't paying attention.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 7 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Environment

 
QandO
 
Edwards endorses Obama
Posted by: McQ
 
If ever you wondered how far to the left Barack Obama is actually running, this endorsement should settle that for you:
At a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Wednesday evening, John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama, who was on the stage with him, to be the Democratic nominee for president.

Sounding a theme of a nation divided into parts by walls, Mr. Edwards said, "The reason I am here tonight is that Democratic voters in America have made their choice and so have I."

Mr. Edwards then went on to say, "There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to tear down that wall and make one America, Barack Obama."
And, frankly, there's a method to his endorsement:
Mr. Edwards has carefully played down his aspirations for an administration role. In an interview in January, he said he would not accept a vice-presidential spot or Cabinet position. "No, absolutely not," he said, shaking his head emphatically when asked.

But privately, he told aides that he would consider the role of vice president, and favored the position of attorney general, which would appeal to his experience of decades spent in courtrooms as a trial lawyer in North Carolina; and his desire to follow in the footsteps of Robert F. Kennedy, one of his heroes.
And for that he most likely trades his delegates for more of a particular demographic:
The endorsement comes at a time when the appeal of Mr. Obama appears to be lagging among white, blue-collar voters, a group to which Mr. Edwards openly appealed.
And so, what passes for the "bandwagon effect" at this point, finds John Edwards endorsing Barack Obama - 2 of this nation's most liberal Senators with not enough experience between them to actually understand how to get to work in Washington, much less how to change it. Two glib and attractive guys who would indeed make a picture perfect pair who are otherwise neophytes in the areas where a president spends the vast majority of his time - foreign affairs and national security.

Personally, I'd love to see Edwards as Obama's VP.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 7 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Paul Krugman VS Amy Klobuchar
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
Paul Krugman says it's those darned conservatives pushing the idea that speculation is behind high oil prices...
Traditionally, denunciations of speculators come from the left of the political spectrum. In the case of oil prices, however, the most vociferous proponents of the view that it's all the speculators' fault have been conservatives...
Meanwhile, it's Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar who says speculation is behind high oil prices, and actually introduces legislation to "curb" speculation.
Our next step should be to stop the speculation that is driving up prices in world energy markets. Oil company executives have testified recently that oil should be trading for about $55 per barrel, but that a frenzy of speculative investment has driven up its price artificially. That's one reason why I cosponsored the Consumer-First Energy Act.
This, says Paul Krugman, is the Republicans fault.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 7 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Energy

 
QandO
 
Intel’s ISEF is all about youth and science - and a bit of fun.
Posted by: McQ
 
Here's Intel's Chairman, Dr. Craig Barrett talking about what this event is all about:



You can tell by Barrett's reaction that is indeed an event he looks forward too each year. Frankly, I can't wait to wade in tomorrow.

Here's another blogger with much more video talent in his little finger than I have in my entire body giving you a bit more of the flavor of the fair.



The categories the finalists are competing in include:

Animal Sciences (94/17/43/51)
Behavioral and Social Sciences (105/14/43/62)
Biochemistry (63/14/22/41)
Cellular and Molecular Biology (71/10/28/43)
Chemistry (79/5/41/38)
Computer Science (78/17/63/15)
Earth Science (30/5/12/18)
Engineering - Electrical and Mechanical (143/15/117/26)
Engineering - Materials and Bioengineering (105/17/71/34)
Energy and Transportation (71/13/44/27)
Environmental Management (102/18/45/57)
Environmental Sciences (135/26/53/82)
Mathematical Sciences (68/12/44/24)
Medicine and Health (156/24/69/87)
Microbiology (79/15/25/54)
Physics and Astronomy (90/17/52/38)
Plant Sciences (88/12/37/51)

Totals (1557/251/809/748)

The numbers you see breakdown like this (total finalists in the category/previous ISEF participation/Male/Female)

By far the largest three categories are Medicine and Health, Electrical and Mechanical Engineering and Environmental Sciences - so I'll spend a good portion of my time tomorrow in those areas. But I've got at least one project in each area circled as a must see.

And since many of us are interested in what's going on with alternative fuels, I'll spend a little more time Energy and Transportation. I'm also up for taking the "global warming" temperature there. Last but certainly not least, I'm also up for a righteous robot or two.

Here's a video of a young lady who makes ball lightning in her garage.



Yeah, pity about that laser, huh?!

Anyway, camera in hand, I hope to be posting a lot of pics tomorrow and perhaps a video or two.

Fired up and ready to go - oh, wait, isn't some political campaign using that?
 

Permalink | Comments ( 1 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Blogging

 
QandO
 
Incremental central control
Posted by: McQ
 
The Heritage Foundation points to a law which the Senate passed yesterday which Heritage sarcastically characterizes as the "Municipal Government Bankruptcy Enhancement Act":
Yesterday the Senate voted to end debate on a bill that requires police officers, firefighters and other first responders across the nation to submit to collectively bargaining. Before the Senate votes on final passage of the bill later this week, lawmakers really ought to take a very close look at a city council vote in the sleepy California town of Vallejo last week.

The Vallejo City Council voted May 6 to become the largest city to ever declare bankruptcy in California. The cause of Vallejo's demise? Contracts with fire and police unions account for 74% of the city's $80 million budget. Why did the city sign such ridiculous contracts? Because public sector unions are a controlling force in the Democratic Party and Democrats dominate Vallejo's government. Therefore, when it came time to for the city to negotiate salaries with its unions, the Democrats were represented, the unions were represented, but the city's taxpayers were not.
The taxpayers are rarely represented in negotiations such as this. And, of course, requiring all municipalities to obey such a law is a Democratic dream come true. A monopoly for the unions backed by the might of the government.

Couple this very expensive requirement with other commitments municipalities have and Vallejo may only be the first of many municipal bankruptcies:
Bondbuyer.com reports: "The U.S. will probably see more municipal bankruptcies in the years ahead as local governments deal with the mountains of pension and retiree benefits they've promised but never funded." The Weekly Standard's Stephen Moore documented many of these nationwide unfunded liabilities earlier this year including: one of every three Los Angeles County school system dollars goes to teacher requirement costs; the 10 largest Chicago-area cities face a combined $18.7 billion in unfunded pension liabilities; Philadelphia was forced to issue a $4.5 billion bond to cover unfunded pension liabilities for 33,000 retirees.
Then, of course, there's the public safety issue of striking police and firefighters:
Liberals in Congress defend their new bill for police officers, firefighters and other first responders by pointing to language that forbids public safety unions from striking. But as the Wall Street Journal notes, similar strike bans in state laws never work: "Union officials call strikes anyway, then negotiate amnesty as a condition of ending the work-stoppage. This is what happened in 2005 when New York transit workers broke the law by going on strike and shutting down the city. They paid no price and still got their raise."
In fact, the only workers I know of who paid with their jobs when they struck illegally were the air traffic controllers. And you can bet your bottom dollar (if you can manage to keep it from being taxed away from you) that nothing like that would happen in a Democratic administration.

Heritage analyst James Sherk points out:
A union's monopoly over bargaining makes it a cartel that prevents employers from hiring workers who would do the same job for less than union wages. ... Without providing financing for the mandate, the act will force these governments to either cut services or raise taxes.
Or both.

This is precisely the type of collectivist incrementalism you can expect from a Democratic legislature and/or a Democratic administration. Just imagine what will happen if the Democrats achieve a true majority in the Senate and also take the White House.
 

Permalink | Comments ( 9 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Government

 
QandO
 
The 49 State Strategy
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
The Obama campaign says screw you guys, we're going to Oregon and Kentucky and Puerto Rico and Montana and South Dakota...
At Obama's Chicago headquarters, advisers said there was no reason to worry - West Virginia was demographically suited to Clinton and won't be part of their general election plans.
I guess they're dialing Howard Dean back to a 49 State Strategy. They're going to have much bigger problems, though, if Democrats keep saying things like this (from Oliver Willis)...
Because of proximity here in Maryland we get occasional exposure to Appalachian stuff. I know it's not nice to say but as a black man in the 21st century it isn't exactly a region I think should be having much say about the future of America. And it isn't.
Democracy!
 

Permalink | Comments ( 27 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Elections

 
QandO
 
Myanmar - "Please bring more"
Posted by: McQ
 
I just had the opportunity to speak with the pilot of the initial US C130 into Myanmar this week (thanks to the Blogger's Roundtable). CPT Trevor Hall (USAF) described the flight in from Thailand, where he and his crew had been supporting a USMC exercise, as uneventful. But the one hour and forty-five minute flight took them in over part of the devastated area, which, according to Hall, had massive flooding, houses destroyed and trees blown down. By all appearances, little if anything was being done.

They touched down at Rangoon's airport (it's called something else now, but I'll stick with Rangoon) with 30,000 pounds of water, mosquito nets and blankets as well as the CINCPAC, Admiral Timothy Keating and the director of USAID, Henrietta Fore. Both were there on a diplomatic mission hoping to persuade the junta to open up the country to US aid. ADM Keating carried a letter from the State Department assuring the Myanmar government that our military would be bringing only aid supplies and experts to help in the country's recovery. The commander of Myanmar's navy met ADM Keating and Ms. Fore and took them to meet the appropriate people in that government.

Although Hall's was the first US C130 in, he noticed C130s from Greece, Malaysia and India on the ramp.

CPT Hall said that while the airport facility there at Rangoon seemed capable of handling large aircraft such as the C17, the offload capability was very limited. His aircraft was offloaded by hand by members of the military. Of course, forklifts, etc, needed to speed the offlift operation could be flown in if necessary.

The other obstacle to distribution of the supplies is the very limited capability of the Myanmar air force. It has a few helicopters and even fewer small fixed wing assets.

CPT Hall also noted something else which seemed curious to him. As they flew in to land they observed a fairly good road network in and around the airport extending out into the rest of the city and countryside. He was rather surprised to see very little if any traffic on most of it. Certainly not a sign that a major relief effort to help 1.5 million people in dire need was underway.

He said since the initial flight, 2 Marine C130s flew supplies in the next day, and today 1 USAF and 4 Marine aircraft are taking in medical and hygiene supplies, plastic sheeting, water and other miscellaneous supplies.

Hall said they didn't know, really, what to expect when they flew in. Naturally they had prepared for the worst case scenario, but were very pleasantly surprised by their warm and gracious reception. As he and the crew helped the Myanmarian troops offload the plane, he said that every attempt at communication in broken English was basically two messages. "Thank you" and "Please bring more".
 

Permalink | Comments ( 2 ) | TrackBacks ( 0 ) | Category: Military Affairs

 
QandO
 
If Maliki lost, what did al-Sadr win?
Posted by: McQ
 
The WSJ deals with the truce which has been agreed upon between the government of Iraq and the Mahdi Army.
Initial press reports have suggested the battle has mostly come out a draw. But a 14-point "truce" between the government and the Mahdists (brokered last week by Iran) suggests otherwise. Among other details reported in the press, the agreement requires the Mahdi Army to abandon its heavy and medium weapons, end its shelling of Baghdad's Green Zone, shut down its kangaroo courts and recognize the authority of Iraqi law. In exchange, the government seems to have promised mainly that it would not arrest lower-level militia members.
A draw? A draw, at least where I come from, doesn't have one side imposing restrictions on the other side. This is dictating terms with the caveat that if they're violated, the destruction of the other side will continue as it was before.

IOW, this "truce" says to the Mahdi Army, accept these conditions and stick with them or well give you no choice at all.

The editorial hits on another important point that those who like to claim that Maliki is an Iranian pawn seem to consistently miss:
The truce suggests, instead, that Iran has grudgingly come to respect Mr. Maliki as a serious opponent. Having invested itself so heavily in Mr. Sadr's success, Tehran had little reason to suddenly lend its diplomatic offices unless it felt the Mahdi Army was on the verge of defeat. Last week's truce may have postponed that moment, but there's little doubt Mr. Sadr's movement has suffered an embarrassing defeat.
Pawns don't start conflicts which work against their master's plans. As the WSJ points out, Iran had invested its interests in Sadr and the Mahdi Army. Iran, as it has discovered, backed the wrong horse. We're now supposed to believe that Maliki will now suddenly cozy up to the country which had, directly, been threatening his leadership.

The last point to be made addresses the "no progress in Iraq" crowd, the group best known for their blinders and goal-post shifting:
However fitfully it began, the Basra campaign is a sign that Iraqis are in fact "standing up" for their own security. It is also a personal vindication for Mr. Maliki, who recognized to his credit that his government had to have a monopoly on violence in Shiite neighborhoods as much as in Sunni enclaves.

In the last year we were told first that the surge was a military failure, and later that it was a military success but that Iraq's political class had not lived up to its end of the bargain. In fact, just as surge supporters said, the Iraqis have become more confident and effective the more they have become convinced that the U.S. was not going to cut and run.
The ISF controls the streets of Basra and Sadr City. Iraq is beginning to do exactly what the detractors have said they must do. And, as the editorial points out, they're doing it because they know we'll stay and back them. The claim was that they wouldn't begin to do this until we left.

That claim, like many others, seems to have been proven false.
 

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QandO
 
Tuesday, May 13, 2008

MS 01 goes Democrat
Posted by: McQ
 
The Tupelo Daily Journal has declared Travis Childers, Democrat, the winner in a closely watched special election runoff. Childers took Republican Greg Davis 53% to 47%. This is he first deep red seat (George Bush took this district by 25 points in the last election) in the deep red South that Dems have taken.

The implication is, of course, that November Congressional elections are shaping up as a blood bath for the Republicans.

And, of course, the further implication is that if so, unless people are willing to be ticket splitters, this could also spell problems for John McCain.

I really can't fault the thinking at this point.

OTOH, the MSM (and its pundits) will try a different spin as to why Childers won.

Mark Ambinder:
Because Davis and Childers tangled via advertisements over whether Childers had been endorsed by Obama amid Rev. Wright's revenge tour, the press will be tempted to spin a Childers victory as a sign that Obama is not a drag on the ticket. Local factors and the national environment are going to be dispositive here, not Barack Obama. So don't believe the hype.
I can't fault the thinking there either.

Is it or is it not an foretaste of things to come?

Way to early to tell.
 

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QandO
 
Pwned
Posted by: Dale Franks
 
As we expeced, Barack Obama is getting a severe whuppin' in West Virginia. It's defininitely Clinton country there.

As Jay Cost wrote last week:
The conventional wisdom has it that Clinton did herself major damage Tuesday night by getting blown out in North Carolina. I completely agree. This hurt her with the pledged delegate count. Much more important, I think, is that it hurt her with the popular vote count, which she must win to press an argument with the superdelegates.

However, it is possible that she could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track.

West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania's twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania's twelfth by 46 points. A recent Rasmussen survey put her up 29 points in the Mountaineer State, with 17% undecided. Another poll had her up 40 points, with Obama under 25%.
He illustrates how deeply into Clinton Country WV and KY are via this graphic:

Clinton counties are in blue, Obama Counties are in green. The black bordered area? Well, that, my friends, is Clinton Country.

White, rural, blue-collar Democrats.

Obama is an Urban, progressive candidate, essentially, and he doesn't resonate with blue collar Democrats.

So, the real question as we move towards the preidential election, is whether those blue counties will stay with Obama in November, should he become the nominee, or whether they will go for McCain, instead.

If I was making predictions, I'd think that an Obama candidacy, if the voting were being held today, would look like this:



Somehow, in a year where the Democrats were going to run away with everything, according to conventional wisdom, it looks as if the Republicans have selected the only candidate that can possibly win the presidency, and the Democrats are choosing between two candidates with an excellent chance of losing.
 

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QandO
 
The art of haggling
Posted by: McQ
 
Will Wilkinson has just returned from Turkey and discovered he hates haggling.
I am terrible at it. As a consequence, I bought nothing in Turkey other than tickets to various things, room, food, and a poster of Ataturk. And I overpaid for all of these things, I'm sure, which has left me a bit bitter about the place. Surely this is inefficient overall, no?
No. Not if you've done your homework. And, it is both sport and entertainment all rolled into one. But, as Wilkerson discovered it's a cultural thing and for the most part Americans suck when it comes to haggling. Well with some exceptions. I happen to be married to one.

We once walked into a oriental rug emporium run by a group of Egyptian men. My wife wanted a rug, had done her homework and knew what she wanted and how much she was willing to pay. As we walked in the door an Egyptian man met up with us and walked along as we looked at the piles of rugs on the floor. He concentrated on chatting me up, basically ignoring my wife. Big mistake. Finally, she asked about a particular rug and he offhandedly threw a price at her. She stopped stock still, looked at him and said "that's ridiculous." She looks at me and says, "if that's the best he can do, we need to go somewhere else." She grabbed my arm and we headed out the door.

Suddenly all attention shifted to her and the nice Egyptian fellow threw a more reasonable price at her. The haggling had begun. For more than an hour it went back and forth with my wife headed out of the store on two more occasions.

I, as I usually do, stood there as a bemused spectator. At one point during the process, the weary salesman looked at me and asked "what is she, Israeli"? A none too subtle way of saying something pretty stereotypical and unacceptable but still pretty funny. I just smiled. When, later, they finally agreed on a price, he paused and looked at me and said "she's not Israeli, she's Egyptian" - the ultimate compliment. She'd gotten the rug for 40% of the initial price.

Haggling is in some people's blood, and my dear wife is one of them. I watched her buy a car once by asking one dealer to fax her a price and then sending that, by fax, to another dealer. That went back and forth for about 5 rounds until one dealer said "uncle". Tele-haggling. We bought the car from the other dealer.

Last week, she called our satellite TV provider and bluntly asked why she should stay with them when other providers were offering such incentives to change. The person on the other end of the line said there were no incentives available presently for current customers. "Well," she said, "I guess I'm going to be a former customer then". 10 minutes later I had free Showtime and 10 bucks monthly off my TV bill.

So next time Will heads to Turkey, I recommend some basic haggling lessons. And I know just the teacher. One note to Will though - if he doesn't haggle a bit over the price of the lessons, he's going to end up paying out the ...

But he'll make up for it with all the money saved in Turkey - I promise.
 

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QandO
 
CNN Boldly declares Clinton winner in WV (update)
Posted by: McQ
 
With zero precincts reporting and zero votes counted, WV has been declared "Clinton Country" by CNN.

The only question remaining is how large a margin she'll achieve.

ABC reports:
Racially motivated voting ran somewhat higher than elsewhere: In preliminary exit poll results, two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi.
Reports MSNBC:
The overwhelming majority of West Virginia Democratic primary voters today were white and 4% were African American.

Clinton won the white vote by 68% to 28%

[...]

She won white women by 74% to 24%, and most white men by, 63% to 33%.
One more time, in case you missed it, that's the Democratic primary we're talking about here. You know, the primary with Democrats voting?

UPDATE: AP throws a couple of unique and interesting exit poll "factors" out for what they're worth:
THE BILL CLINTON FACTOR

Three quarters of Hillary Rodham Clinton voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote. More than half of Barack Obama voters said the former president's campaigning was of little or no importance.

THE REV. WRIGHT FACTOR

Two in 10 voters said Obama shares the views of his fiery former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "a lot" and three in 10 said Obama shares Wright's views "somewhat." Nearly a quarter said Obama shares Wright's views "not much" and a quarter said the candidate doesn't share his one-time preacher's views at all.
 

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QandO
 
Intel’s International Science and Engineering Fair
Posted by: McQ
 
I'm stoked about Thursday.

I've been invited to attend and cover the International Science and Engineering Fair (ISEF) taking place here in Atlanta. Sponsored by Intel, it is the science and engineering fair for high school students with over 1500 participants from almost 50 countries setting up their projects as we speak. They're all finalists who've worked their way through various state, regional and national fairs to get to what many describe as the "Superbowl" of science and engineering fairs.

This is truly the big-time for these students - more than $4 million in scholarships, tuition grants, scientific equipment and trips is up for grabs.

Obviously, then, we're not talking about "how a volcano works" type projects. The titles of a couple projects may give you an idea of the level of scientific sophistication on display there. "A Study on the Neuroprotective properties of Epigallocatechin-3-Gallate (EGCG) in Relation to P25-Activated Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 5 (Cdk5): Implications for Alzheimer's Disease" presented by a 16 year old in the Biochemistry division. In the Chemistry division, "Evaluating Fumed Silica Composite Polymer Electrolytes on the Efficiency and Surface Chemistry of a Solid-State Battery at the Nanoparticle Level". There's also an engineering side to all of this. A couple of 18 year olds are presenting "Engineering a Modular Infrared Tracking Sensor for Use with the Foster-Miller TALON, a Man-Portable Reconnaissance Robot".

Naturally, college and university recruiters are well represented. Landing just about any of these young men or women would be a coup. And, contrary to popular stereotype that says science and engineering are men's fields, women are well represented here. 48% of the participants are female.

So Thursday, I'll be blogging from the ISEF, touring the projects and talking to the young men and women who've put them together. I'm sure I'll be totally amazed at their accomplishments (about 20% of the participants have patents or patents pending on their research). I'm also sure that 75% of it, ok 95% of it, will be over my head. But I promise to have them to explain all of it in terms even an old guy can understand.

My thanks to Intel for the opportunity.
 

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QandO
 
The Minimum Wage and Moral Hazards
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
I agree with Megan McArdle's point about the minimum wage; it is bad policy, because it is very inefficient, poorly targeted, and places the burden for social welfare in the labor market on the people most likely to hire low-skill workers. On the other hand, any "unemployment effect [due to] US-sized changes in the minimum wage is too small to be detected amidst statistical noise." [More good points here on the impact of elasticity over the short and long term]

However, I would add a point to this comment...
[T]he suggestion has been made that the minimum wage is really swell because it gets rid of low-productivity jobs that only pay the minimum wage. This sounds lovely—if you are the kind of person who has the skills to get one of the higher productivity jobs. Not so great if you're a high-school dropout with no appreciable credentials. In effect what you're talking about is a massive transfer from the weakest members of society.
There is also a cross-elasticity moral hazard to consider here. If jobs for low- and un-skilled workers suddenly begin paying appreciably more, then low- and un-skilled workers will find those jobs more enticing relative to their alternatives. What is a primary alternative to entry-level jobs for low- and un-skilled workers? Education.

So, a legislated increase in the minimum wage makes low- and un-skilled workers more likely to drop out of school and forgo educational opportunities. More efficient, direct social welfare programs would not necessarily require that kind of an either/or choice.
 

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QandO
 
Inflation, the dollar and the future
Posted by: McQ
 
According to the IMF, inflation is raising its ugly head and is a threat to world-wide economic stability:
``This inflation speed-up must be taken seriously as it creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability,'' John Lipsky, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said ... A return to 1970s- style high inflation and rising price expectations ``cannot be discarded out of hand,'' he said.
The problem is being tied to the upsurge in both energy and commodity prices, such as corn and soybeans. And of course, none of that is helped by the declining dollar:
IMF research indicates that if the dollar hadn't fallen from 2002 to 2007, oil prices would be $25 a barrel lower. Crude oil futures surpassed $120 a barrel this week for the first time. Commodity prices excluding fuel would be 12 percent lower, Lipsky said.

Middle East and Asian countries that keep their currencies linked to the dollar are seeing inflation pressures worsen as a result, Lipsky said.

``In the euro area, the sharp rise in inflation and concerns about potential deterioration in inflation expectations are dampening consumer confidence and spending,'' he said. ``The inflation outlook appropriately is central to the ECB's policy considerations.''

[...]

Crude oil prices have almost doubled in the past 12 months and commodities including corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have all reached records this year. In the U.S., consumer prices climbed 4 percent in March from a year before, up from a 2.8 percent rate in March 2007. Inflation in the 15-nation euro region accelerated to 3.6 percent two months ago, the fastest in almost 16 years.
Part, but certainly not all of the problem in the commodities market has been driven by various government decisions to subsidize ethanol made from these commodities. Thankfully, some are now reconsidering those decisions.
``Inflation rates are expected to remain high for a rather protracted period of time before gradually declining again,'' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference in Athens today.

Fed officials anticipate that slowing U.S. economic growth and rising unemployment will help curb inflation. Policy makers last week signaled they're ready for a pause in cutting rates after seven reductions since September.
Not a particularly appetizing remedy for inflation, but certainly probable in terms of the US economy. But then also off in the wings a bit is the worry of stagflation.

All-in-all, it would seem we're in for a bit of a bumpy economic ride, at least for the short-term.
 

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QandO
 
Bobby Jindal
Posted by: Jon Henke
 
Intellectuals and libertarians haven't had a lot of good things to say about many current Republican politicians (for good reasons, I think), so I'm heartened to see that Megan McArdle was impressed by Bobby Jindal...
I saw Bobby Jindal talk last week at the National Press Club. He's being widely touted as McCain's potential running mate, though I agree with Ross that this would be a mistake—for Jindal. No one should run for office this year as a Republican who doesn't have to.

Mostly I was incredibly impressed. He looks like the president of the high school chess club, so it's something of a shock to my elitist coastal ears to hear a rich good-old-boy southern accent issuing from him. But he's a hell of a talker, and most of what h