Obama wins
With Ohio called, it looks like my basic model was right (e.g., VA is still not called), but my model still only gave McCain a 30% chance of a win.
That's all moot to the bet though (which is why I got 4-1 odds), so I'll be paying off Thason next time I'm in Blacksburg. [Do you want cash or a nice dinner?]
In related news, Dave called me up and said he wants a shotgun for Christmas.
Update
Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:32:07 -0600
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What got me really interested in following election returns
Now this is election coverage!
Vote Silly Party!
Tue, 04 Nov 2008 07:36:15 -0600
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The Election Returns Drinking Game!
This is an incomplete framework based on input I got from students of mine. Not all of the ideas are original, and I welcome your contributions
Central Rules:
When a state is declared for your Presidential candidate: Drink!
When a state flips from its result in 2004: Everyone drinks! Pursuant to the previous rule, when a state flips to your candidate, you drink twice! (Sorry, McCain voters...)
Tue, 04 Nov 2008 07:33:21 -0600
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Voting Report - Christiansburg
I've just returned home from voting. I arrived at my polling place (the Christiansburg Recreation Center) at about 6:05, and I stood in line for an hour. I estimate that there were about 200 people in line in front of me when I arrived. The end of the line was essentially in the same place for the entire time that I was there.
The weather was nice enough, so the people in line were polite and in
Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:18:13 -0600
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Update from the Other Side
I should make it known that I don't plan to offer odds to anyone else (scroll down to the update) on the outcome of tomorrow's little event - not unless they're really, really good wagers. I don't know if the other party still remembers - considering that he went into the hospital recently for appendix surgery - but I also have a even-odds lunch bet on the outcome of the election.
I felt the
Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:52:22 -0600
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On Polling
Wow, I sparked a lot of comments in response to me saying that I don't trust most of the polls and that I think McCain has about a 30% chance to win. (For fun, I've taken to calling him "The Arizona DJ, Emcee Cain". I encourage others to do as well).
Since a quick comment did an apparently piss-poor job of it, here's a post so I can use some formatting to help me better convey my thoughts.
====
Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:39:49 -0600
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Larry Parks died
His obit is here.
He was a good man.
Mon, 03 Nov 2008 08:14:26 -0600
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A shout-out to our friends at the Weekly World News
Oh well. So much for that speech last night. It looks like McCain has this thing sewn up. Might as well cancel the election.
(The pictures are priceless...)
Thu, 30 Oct 2008 07:56:46 -0500
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People on Free Republic are insane
Entertaining, but insane:
"A National Emergency
Posted on Tuesday, October 28, 2008 7:38:07 PM by SwaggerStick
There is little doubt for those of us who have sound minds this election has migrated from dishonest and biased media coverage to outright corruption. There is little doubt voter fraud will extend well beyond the noise level to a significant enough level that will jeopardize the
Thu, 30 Oct 2008 06:41:04 -0500
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Does McCain want McCain to lose?
I'll do you one better. Let's go right to the top of the ticket:
You've really got to wait for the room to go quiet after the punch line, and then marvel at how well a septuagenarian can tap dance verbally...
Wed, 22 Oct 2008 18:38:51 -0500
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Does Biden want Obama to lose?
Says Biden:
Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember
Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:57:46 -0500
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Politics and Demographics in Knox County
The MetroPulse has a really good article on the politics and demographics of Knox County. (h/t puppy blender). Mostly, it's noting a correlation we all know (positive correlation between urbanism and liberalism), but I liked the precinct-by-precinct map (I'm a sucker for maps).
From my experience, the same trends held in Raleigh, Blacksburg, and Lynchburg. For the curious, I lived in the
Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:07:52 -0500
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My Post Election Bumper Sticker
Regardless of who wins.
Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:04:48 -0500
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Fritz's first post
Since the country is in the process of socializing our financial sector while choosing between a socialist and a Marxist for President (you can decide which is which - doesn't really matter to me) to lead the socialization efforts for the rest of the economy, I'm not in the best of blogging moods, so I've decided to turn over my blogging duties to Fritz der Hund Neel (our larger, younger Shepherd
Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:47:16 -0500
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CRT Update
Updating this earlier post (CRT is #1), we're still on the first page of google results (and will probably be the first hit behind wikipedia by the end of the year), but more importantly, as of yesterday, CRT officially achieved another goal (hint: it's not the patents), which means that after a few invoices, we should have the capital to start some prototyping work so that maybe by the end of
Tue, 07 Oct 2008 07:42:34 -0500
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McCain, the Bailout, and my disgust
What little credibility / attractiveness as a candidate McCain had with me is now lost.
His major claims for what he'll do in office is 1) He'll fight earmarks (as a proxy for corruption), 2) He'll veto bad bills, with a particular eye toward vetoing spending bills. Fight fight fight, principles and all that.
Yesterday, he voted for what I believe to be a very bad plan, which was furthermore
Thu, 02 Oct 2008 09:47:31 -0500
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Bail out fails? Yay? (Updated)
Looks like the bailout failed.
Now it's time to see if I was right that the market will right itself. Expect a few more lending institutions to fail, but the market was bloated and depositors will be ok. (I am ok with supplementing the FDIC as needed, just not with, well, lots of stuff in the Paulson / Dodd / Pelosi / Frank plan)
Update:
The "crash" of the stock market (smaller percentage wise
Tue, 30 Sep 2008 05:03:32 -0500
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Throwing good money after good
(Polyscifi - all bailout all the time!) Another bail plan I think is much better is this one by Arnold Kling (it's a little way down there):
The right policy response to a surge in demand for this "money" would seem
to be to exchange "money" for bonds, which in this case means issuing Treasuries
and buying private securities. If that's the right policy, then I would have the
government invest in
Sat, 27 Sep 2008 16:25:03 -0500
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Simple drinking game for McCain Obama debate
1 shot for every use of the word "change"
Cheers.
Fri, 26 Sep 2008 19:57:40 -0500
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Wahoos and Russert
(link)
[Luke] Russert, 23, said about [UVA]: "The smartest kids in the state go there so it is leaning a little bit toward Obama. Dem be fightin' words. Intellectual pistols at daybreak to resolve this once and for all - round-robin quizbowl tournament between UVA, VT, WM, JMU, GMU, ODU, and LU. Cage match rules apply.More seriously, I think it would be cool (and awesome publicity) if VTACO
Thu, 25 Sep 2008 10:35:05 -0500
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A less bad bailout plan
Is in this Andy McCarthy post:
Wouldn't it be better to make this taxpayer money available for loan, let the institutions buy them at whatever price the market will bear, and take back collateral as was done with AIG? I realize this will mean companies holding truly worthless paper will fail, but shouldn't they fail anyway?
And won't they eventually fail anyway (i.e., wouldn't propping them up
Thu, 25 Sep 2008 07:00:22 -0500
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What the?
McCain suspends campaign for the bailout.
Althouse and McQ seems to like it ok, but I think it makes McCain look unstable. Then again I'm almost as opposed to the bailout as one can be, so I might be a bit biased.1
1. Only almost, because, honestly, Preethi makes me look like an opposition piker. Lots of yelling at the TV in the Neel household.
Wed, 24 Sep 2008 18:03:32 -0500
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It's simply awesome that Biden gets so much exposure
(link) Joe Biden: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and
didn't just talk about the princes of greed," Biden told Couric. "He said,
'Look, here's what happened.'"
Jesse Walker: "And if you owned an experimental TV set in 1929, you would have seen him. And
you would have said to yourself, 'Who is that guy? What happened to President
Hoover?'
Joe Biden: so
Tue, 23 Sep 2008 11:23:13 -0500
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The enemy of my enemy is my ???
I approve the main idea of VoteNoBailOut.org as I think the $700 billion bailout is a greased pole ride to full-blown socialism, but it seems counter-productive to protest the bail out via ANSWER who wants the country to be riding *their* greased pole ride to full-blown socialism.
Mon, 22 Sep 2008 23:20:46 -0500
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Jennifer Government, meet Chad Ocho Cinco
So, the reports are that the NFL has issued the new jersey. (This notwithstanding the fact that they haven't made the change on their website.) The Bengals home page has made the change on their official roster. So has Yahoo. So where could this possibly still be a controversy?
That's right - those nerds on Wiki...I mean, those Wikipedians. Note that for true and representative entertainment,
Sun, 07 Sep 2008 13:39:09 -0500
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