Free Markets, Free People

Russia Freezes Iranian Missile Sale

An interesting story out of Russia via the Jerusalem Post. And while good news, albeit of a temporary nature I’m sure, I’m betting there is much more to this than meets the eye.  This is about positioning in upcoming missile defense talks with the US:

Russia has frozen the sale of the state-of-the-art S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported Wednesday.

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar was reportedly informed of the decision by his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov on his visit to Moscow on Wednesday.

Russia said the delivery of the systems would be delayed at least until the upcoming meeting between President Dmitry Medvedev and his US counterpart, Barack Obama. Kommersant cited Russia’s wish to prevent hindering dialogue with the new US administration.

Military diplomatic sources were quoted by Kommersant as saying that the issue had been the focus of Najjar’s visit.

Of course the important point is the sale is frozen, not canceled. While that’s good news for both the US and Israel (the S-300 system is reported to be a very good air defense system against not just aircraft, but cruise missiles), it may not be any more than a temporary sop to the Americans and a reminder to the Iranians that Russia is their major backer and can pull that backing at any time. And, interestingly, there’s one other reason (or at least so Israel claims):

Israel Radio quoted Moscow sources as saying that apart form the gesture to the Americans, Russia also wanted to avoid ruining a $100 million drone purchase from Israel.

I say interesting because the S-300 sale is an $800 million sale. You jeopardize an 800 million sale for a 100 million purchase? Or do you grab the 100 mil buy because you know the 800 mil sale is in the bag? I’d say the latter, meaning the freeze is most likely for show only. Unless, of course, the Russians are just incredibly stupid businessmen.

I don’t think they are, although they’re not as clever in other areas as they sometimes think. This seems to me to be a very crude (but probably effective) set up for an “aw gee and here we made this great gesture toward working with you and this is how you act?” result of our first meeting with Russia. Absolute world opinion gold for Putin and the boys if they manage it correctly and, of course, the perfect opportunity to then unfreeze the sale.  Can anyone guess who’d end up being embarrassed by such a scenario?

~McQ

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5 Responses to Russia Freezes Iranian Missile Sale

  • The drones are to be purchased by Russia, not sold by Russia.

    • I’m not sure that makes a difference. Again, whether buying or selling, why would you jeopardize a 800 million purchase with a 100 million dollar buy unless you’re pretty sure the 800 million is in the bag no matter what you do (and that’s a pretty safe bet since no one else will sell AD equipment to Iran).

  • They must really want those drones…

    I am guessing that the deal is they help with our logistics to Afghanistan, freeze the missile deal to Iran, and we don’t put anti-missile defense in Poland?

    I cannot figure out what else we could give them. Otherwise its some sort of PR ploy as McQ suggests.

  • Maybe Iran doesn’t have the cash.

  • Russia needs to continue selling the S-300s and various upgrades around the world. Russia would be guilty of very poor marketeering in selling them to Iran only to have the missile systems demonstrably proven deficient in the not-too-distant future. Such a negative demonstration might even have strategic implications for Russia.

    Hmmmmm. I wonder what sort of SAMs were around the Syrian site Irael bombed back in 2007?