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World Will Warm Faster Than Predicted In Next 5 Years?

That’s what the Guardian is saying.   And, it claims, that will “silence” global warming skeptics.

You mean man’s link to warming has finally been proven and we will now reap what we’ve sown?

Well, not exactly.  Here’s the reason they give:

[The] [n]ew estimate [is] based on the forthcoming upturn in solar activity and El Niño southern oscillation cycles.

They then trot this out:

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.

The research, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The work is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO2 and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Notice anything in there that sounds familiar? Remember the report on this peer reviewed study? The Guardian apparently doesn’t:

Three Australasian scientists have published a study in the Journal of Geophysical Research claiming that virtually none of the observed temperature increases in the Earth’s atmosphere in recent years can be attributed to man-made factors.

And to what did the 3 scientists attribute recent warming?

“The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely” de Freitas said.

“We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis,” he added.

Again, what was it the scientists the Guardian are trumpeting included in their analysis?

“…volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation…”

And the sun – something we’ve been pointing out for a while has a huge impact on heating or cooling on the earth. It has also been very quiet for a few years.

We have obvious agreement between the two studies that three natural activities over which man has absolutely no control are driving the climate. And the Guardian gives us nothing – absolutely nothing – that supports the AGW connection which it implies the inclusion of man-made CO2 emissions and aerosols. No percentage of cause or contribution to the warming, no idea if the inclusion has any effect at all, nothing. The Australians reached pretty much the same conclusion but found no connection with man-made emissions.

One final word – I’m not a “global warming” skeptic. The globe warms and cools. Its a natural thing that the globe has been cycling through since its formation.

I’m an AGW skeptic. And this study does nothing to change that. In fact, it reinforces what the Australians did. The globe my very well warm in the next 5 years. But I still am not seeing anything that definitively links that to man. I’m seeing a lot that links it to nature though.


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30 Responses to World Will Warm Faster Than Predicted In Next 5 Years?

  • I’m always amused when the AGW folks assign the Sun a 20% or so rating on what affect it has on Earth’s climate. I always ask them what would happen if the Sun would just go “out” and if we could get by alright without that 20% factor contributed by the Sun.

  • “The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.”

    Um… Didn’t Hansen have to admit that he’d (ahem) made a mistake when he announced that 1998 was the hottest year on record, leaving 1934 as the undisputed champion?

    And ya gotta love the thing about “relatively cool years” since ’98 leading people to be skeptical of global warming. D*MN people for actually believing their own senses that the earth is getting cooler and then having the TEMERITY to conclude that global warming is a bunch of hooey!

    Now, what if the earth DOES get “warmer” in the next few years (or, at least, Hansen and his fellow con artists release a “study” that “proves” that it has)? According to The Guardian, that will silence all us AGW skeptics.* But what if it DOESN’T get warmer? Or even (gasp!) gets a bit cooler? Will that silence Algore and his fellow hucksters? Please-please-PLEASE!!!


    (*) I must say that, if I practiced science in the way that the gorebots seem to, my career as a chemist would be short and embarrassing.

    temperatures decrease: AIIEEE GLOBAL WARMING WE ARE GOING TO DIE
    temperatures stay the same: AIIEEE GLOBAL WARMING WE ARE GOING TO DIE
    nice to have a sure thing




      You left off the most important part

      AIIEEE GLOBAL WARMING WE ARE GOING TO DIE unless you peons do whatever your socialist overlords want you to do, right now! Give us complete control over your lives to save the planet!

  • Why are all these people without Ph.Ds opining on this?

  • Good perspective here:  the third picture down presses the point.

  • so they go ahead and link man made and natural causes together to assume that temperatures will rise? But I am not interested in blaming the unbelievably tiny contribution of humans to the overwhelming contribution of natural occurrences.
    This is not science, it is a classic scare hoax.

  • You left off the most important part

    I guessed that readers here would fill that part in without any urging.

  • This is not science, it is a classic scare hoax.

    Actually it is the Bernie Madoff of the science world.  When the common man realizes how they have been conned, the damage to science itself will be profound.  I really despise these people.

  • I’ve been following this long enough to have heard the AGW centrists deny that any warming could not be explained by natural variations, only CO2 could explain the warming. Now that it has moderated or cooled , global cooling can only be explained by natural variations. Come on man! Just pick a lane!

  • The global warming hysterics are starting to panic . . .   I’m guessing there is a lot of diaper rash in Warmonger land these days.  As more and more evidence contradicts their cherished theory, they will get ever more desperate to bomb the skeptic’s bridges in front of their gravy & fame train.

  • global warming. global cooling. AGW. It is too complicated. Just call it
    CACA (catastrophic anthropogenic climate alteration).

  • Climate scientists *do not* assign a 20% number to the Sun’s influence. They know full well the Sun is the largest contributor to Earth’s climate. They have calculated that *changes* in the Sun’s irradiance are on the level of 0.1 W/m2, far below the about 2 W/m2 of warming anthropogenic influences and the -1 W/m2 of cooling aerosols.

  • The GISS data correction made 1934 was the hottest year in the *US*. The US is only 2% of the Earth’s area. Actually, GISS pegs 2005 as the warmest year, globally, with 1998 second.

    • And the way things are going, 2009 is going to be one of the coldest.  Where I live, we are about to have a July without a single day in the 90s.  That has happened since the late 1800’s.  Does the modeling explain this?

  • >> I’ve been following this long enough to have heard the AGW centrists deny that any warming could not be explained by natural variations, only CO2 could explain the warming.<<
    Baloney. Climate scientists have always recognized that many factors influence climate and know full well that natural variations are present. The sun, volcanoes, chaos — all are in their models.

  • I’m sure 5 years of warming will put us skeptics in our place, just like 10 years of cooling put AGW alarmists in there’s! /sarc

  • It appears the sun, volcanic activity, and La Nina can mask AGW, but not actually cause actual warming. Strange isn’t it?

  • David, I call baloney on your baloney! GCM’s (global circulation models) do NOT include all of these natural variations. That is the major problem with them! They fail to model clouds, precipitation, chaos, evaporation, and a whole host of other natural climate drivers. They don’t model the sun either! They assume the sun as a static solar input, and this is clearly wrong. Further, they do not model the affects the sun has on clouds in the stratosphere and lower troposphere and the positive/negative feedback affects this has on atmospheric temperature. The list of modeling deficiencies far exceeds those processes that they do model. This is the reason why GCM’s were not able to model (predict) our current cooling phase and have never been able to accurately model our real climate!

    • A working model? A working model of Earth’s climate? An accurate working model of Earth’s climate? Nothing but fantasy, pure and simple. A working, sustainable, fusion reactor is a walk in the park, a snap, a piece of cake, compared to a predictive model of Earth’s climate.

      A working, sustainable, fusion reactor is most likely a pipe dream. Maybe not…but most likely. A working model of Earth’s climate is nothing but a pipe dream….at best! 


  • “The sun, volcanoes, chaos — all are in their models.”

    And their models have yet to be validated!  The 2004 IPCC Report admits there is significant problems with the models regarding the effect of water vapor in the atmosphere, but then goes ahead and uses them preaching gloom and doom.

    Go figure!

  • I guess the guardian hasn’t really been paying attention.  There isn’t any ramp up in solar activity expected any time soon and the forcasted ramp up keeps getting lower and lower.  We are also in the cool phase of the PDO and the current el nino is rather weak.

  • An outpouring of skeptical scientists who are members of the American Chemical Society (ACS) are revolting against the group’s editor-in-chief — with some demanding he be removed — after an editorial appeared claiming “the science of anthropogenic climate change is becoming increasingly well established.”
    The editorial claimed the “consensus” view was growing “increasingly difficult to challenge, despite the efforts of diehard climate-change deniers.” The editor now admits he is “startled” by the negative reaction from the group’s scientific members. The American Chemical Society bills itself as the “world’s largest scientific society.”

  • As more data rolls in, this is beginning to look like science 1, media 0. It’s definitely shaping into a win. In three or four years, no one will believe in anthropogenic CO2 induced climate change.

  • I wonder why AP seemed to miss this piece of history …

    It was delightfully appropriate that, as large parts of Argentina were swept by severe blizzards last week, on a scale never experienced before, the city of Nashville, Tennessee, should have enjoyed the coolest July 21 in its history, breaking a record established in 1877. Appropriate, because Nashville is the home of Al Gore, the man who for 20 years has been predicting that we should all by now be in the grip of runaway global warming. His predictions have proved so wildly wrong – along with those of the Met Office’s £33 million computer model which forecast that we should now be enjoying a “barbecue summer” and that 2009 would be one of “the five warmest years ever” – that the propaganda machine has had to work overtime to maintain what is threatening to become the most expensive fiction in history.

  • Well… IF the temperature of our world were to rise as they say, I would be SHOCKED!!! Global-cooling-sceptics really should turn your their heads towards the SUN! The Sun will NOT play along with Al-Gore and his servants! It is said that “this summer was the warmest summer in 130 years!!!”, “the oceans never were warmer than they are today”. So… WHERE are the Hurricanes, Typhoons and the Cyclones!?