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IPCC Hurricane Conclusions Called Into Question

And the hits keep on coming.  Now it is hurricane data being called into question:

More trouble looms for the IPCC. The body may need to revise statements made in its Fourth Assessment Report on hurricanes and global warming. A statistical analysis of the raw data shows that the claims that global hurricane activity has increased cannot be supported.

Dr. Les Hatton says he is neither “a warmist nor a denialist”, but a scientist. And as a scientist he took a look at the IPCC’s claims about hurricanes and found them wanting:

Hatton performed a z-test statistical analysis of the period 1999-2009 against 1946-2009 to test the six conclusions. He also ran the data ending with what the IPCC had available in 2007. He found that North Atlantic hurricane activity increased significantly, but the increase was counterbalanced by diminished activity in the East Pacific, where hurricane-strength storms are 50 per cent more prevalent. The West Pacific showed no significant change. Overall, the declines balance the increases.

“When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost exactly balances.” This isn’t indicative of an increase in atmospheric energy manifesting itself in storms.

Says Hatton, after running his statitistical analysis and reading the IPCC report, he found it’s conclusions could not be supported by the data:

The IPCC continues: “It is more likely than not (> 50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.” But, as Hatton points out, that conclusion comes from computer climate models, not from the observational data, which show no increase.

“The IPCC goes on to make statements that would never pass peer review,” Hatton told us. A more scientifically useful conclusion would have been to ask why there was a disparity. “This differential behaviour to me is very interesting. If it’s due to increased warming in one place, and decreased warming in the other – then that’s interesting to me.”

It would be interesting to others as well since it might indicate the observed warming was a result of regional weather, not global warming. Hatton has put his work on his personal web site (you can see it here) and issued an open invitation to prove his analysis wrong. Al Gore has said he’ll get right on it.

~McQ

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21 Responses to IPCC Hurricane Conclusions Called Into Question

  • Al Gore has said he’ll get right on it.

    Has anyone filed a missing person report on Gore yet? 

    • Oh, he’s still out there.  In fact, as one would expect from the Man Who Invented the Internet, he has his very own personal blog.  He said this just the other day (2-10-10):

      More evidence of the climate crisis is unfolding before our eyes. The situation in the Arctic is worse than data from satellite pictures have told us

      He goes on to cite that highly authoritative sciency-science journal, Time magazine:

      For scientists studying the health of Arctic sea ice, satellite observations are absolutely essential for providing the big picture. It was satellites that revealed in September 2007 a record minimum ice coverage in the region — the result of a massive summer melt.* And it was satellites that showed in 2008 and 2009 the modest recovery of late-summer Arctic ice that suggested to some that the specter of a totally ice-free polar ocean might be somewhat less imminent than feared.”

      “But those high-altitude observations need occasional reality checks from scientists down on the surface. It was during one such on-the-ground research expedition last fall that David Barber, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba, got an unwelcome surprise.”…

      Who are you gonna believe?  Satellite photos or your lyin’ eyes?  I mean… your eyes, or lyin’ satellite photos?  Talk about cherry picking data!  When the satellite photos show minimum ice coverage, that’s evidence of global warming.  But when the satellites show ice coverage is growing, then it’s time to get “on the ground” data to (you guessed it!) show that the satellite photos are wrong and THAT’S evidence of global warming, too.

      How pathetic is it that Algore, the prophet of global warming, has to get his “data” from Time magazine?  Doesn’t it rather say something about the state of the science (and Algore’s command of it) that he can’t get evidence from serious, peer-reviewed scientific journals?  It’s almost as pathetic as Algore’s continual refusal to openly debate any of the “deniers” he and his acolytes so regularly insult, belittle, and deride.  One would almost suspect that Algore KNOWS that he can’t stand toe-to-toe with Lord Monkton or any other informed “denier” because they’d poke huge holes in his data and otherwise show him up as the charlatan that he is. 

      So, if I was Dr. Hatton, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Algore to prove his analysis wrong.  I WOULD expect, however, to be smeared and belittled as a “denier” in the pay of Big Oil.  Hope Dr. Hatton has tenure…

      —–

      (*) Oh, yeah: I remember that massive summer melt.  Wasn’t that when New York City was destroyed by global warming-induced flooding? 

      / sarc

  • Erb- Comment?

    • Let me stand in here – mumble mumble, deniers, taken in, oil companies, mumble, my blog site, posting, me me, I, Obama thinks like I do, mumble, mumble, attack people who disagree with you, non scientific, mumble mumble, consensus, science, mumble, mumble, rhubarb, rhubarb, personal attacks, deniers, oil companies, rhubarb, rhubarb, beginning to repeat myself, rhubarb mumble, mumble, future generations, mumble mumble, do something, mumble mumble, deceived by right wing radicals and corporations, isolated incidents, science, mumble, mumble, cherry picking, rhubarb, rhubarb, smarter than you are, respect people with letters after their names rather than anonymous posters on the web.  Mumble mumble, my blog site, latest posting, mumble, brain fart.

  • The hurricane stuff was known, by hurricane specialists like William Gray, to be wrong as soon as it was noted. So these admissions are late, and obvious.

    The admission by Phil Jones, head of CRU at East Anglia, that there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995 confirms what Richard Lindzen noted a few years ago.

    The disappearing glacier nonsense was something that Crichton covered in State of Fear before it was even published by IPCC. And I’m sure that Crichton wasn’t the first to cover it.

    Then the half-hearted admission, also by Jones, that there is in fact no “consensus” on warming and that the Medieval Warm Period “might have” been warmer than now reinforce what I said here in comments a couple of years ago: that there is no “science of global warming.”

    The skeptics have been right all along, and it sounds like these “limited modified hangouts” have about the purpose of keeping some of these IPCC hacks out of the dock.

    • I think that should be “modified limited hangouts.”

      And I’ll add that this really does have to be the last time that the UN is ever trusted with science and perhaps anything else.

    • But we have to DOOOOOO SOMETHINGS!!!!!!!!!  – sorry, still in Erb shorthand mode.

  • There were a number of articles, news reports, and blog posts today about the way that AGW is crumbling.  Or more accurately, on how it has crumbled.  Phil Jones appears to be trying to ease his way onto his sword instead of simply falling upon it.  But AGW’s corpse is already beginning to stink of decay.  In the truest sense, I say good riddance to bad rubbish.

  • The Climate Nazis have been beaten, as surely as the Nazis were beaten at Stalingrad.
     
    Next up, we destroy Al Gore and his Gang of Chicken Littles.

  • and here is another one.  Antarctic sea ice actually increased by 50% vs what the IPCC report said
     
     

    • Oh, but according to Algore and the sciency-science types at Time, the ice isn’t NORMAL ice: it’s more like Swiss cheese.  Nossir, just because there APPEARS to be more ice doesn’t mean that there actually IS more ice.  It just looks that way to, you know, people who don’t REALLY understand the sciency-science of Arctic ice, global warming climate change, consensus, social justice, and… um… er… all that stuff.

      • Right, there’s really only 25% more true ice, but THAT ice isn’t caused by cooling, it’s caused by warming, this is WARM ice, not cool ice.  Their model for climate change predicted all this, that sometimes it would get cool during the warming period.  That cooling might happen for as many as 30 or 40 years, but then it would warm up again for a while, followed by possible cooling.  And all of this is caused by man, and is different than any warming and cooling that EVER occurred before!
         
        And we have to dooooo something, even if we don’t really DO anything if we pass laws that collect money and SAY we’re doing something it will convince the globe that we care, and are going to get serious and once we pass those laws the magic will begin to occur.   But if we don’t pledge ourselves to Gaia now with new confiscatory laws and wealth redistribution systems Tinkerbell will die! Do you want that?!!!! then bad things will happen, bad bad things, that even President Imeme won’t be able to save us from.

  • I thought this was debunked with the one study that showed a decline in hurricane energy and the other thing where they could only guess how many hurricanes fell in the ocean and didn’t make a splash because there was no satellite to see it.

  • Saw a clip on CNN today where the anchor said ‘our next report on how January was the warmest January in recorded history’.
    Really?

  • I never realized that Tom Friedman was a disciple of the “Weirding Way“. He still acts a bit clumsy if you ask me.

  • A year ago they were the last, best hope of the world, a shining band of brothers (and sisters) who were saving the planet and taming the excesses of self-destructive capitalist greed. The Force was with them and the world lay at their feet. They were going to be greeted as liberators by a grateful world desperate to be saved.

    Too funny .. liberators