Free Markets, Free People

2010 Midterm Elections

According to Chris Cilliza of The Fix, Charlie Cook, one of the best of the Democratic Party election handicappers, isn’t high at all on the chances of House Democrats of retaining the majority.  Watch the video – he immediately says the same thing I’ve been saying – there is no “communication problem” with President Obama.  Instead he’s sees what has happened to Obama and the Democrats as being “fundamental and total miscalculations” on their part.

Cook also finds it hard, after discussions with what he calls the brightest of House Dems, he finds it very hard to “come up with a scenario in which the Democrats don’t loose the House”.

Interesting comparision: Bush/Iraq = Obama/Health Care. Now, I don’t know if I’m as pessimistic as Cook seems to be (and trust me Cook knows this infinitly better than I do as he’s proven election after election), but it is certainly true that I think House Democrats will loose a significant number of seats and their easy majority will become a difficult one next January where they’ll actually have to take Blue Dogs seriously since it might be that bloc that provides the swing votes necessary for either side to have their way.

Cilliza finds another respected election handicapper who disagrees slightly with Cook – not with Democratic losses, just with the amount:

Stu Rothenberg, another noted political handicapper in Washington, has pegged Democratic House losses as between 24 and 28 seats. He writes: “We currently expect Republicans to fall short of the 40 seats they would need.”

In a polarized House, the loss of between 24 and 28 (I think it could actually be a little higher than that) is significant. The health care bill passed the House by 3 votes if my memory serves me correctly. As I point out above, controversial bills would have to be toned down and take a much more conservative tone to pass the House if those gains above are realized.

But to this point, all of the above is idle speculation. In terms of an election 9 months is an eternity. What I think will help cement either Rothenberg or Cook’s prognostications, however, is if the Democrats manage, by hook or crook, to pass health care legislation – especially with no Republican votes for it. Then I think Cook has it right. I think the voter’s wrath will be such that any name on the ballot with a “D” after it will be fair game.

~McQ

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30 Responses to 2010 Midterm Elections

  • I think that this is a huge part of the reasoning behind the “ambush summit” that the President wants to have with Republicans.  Using reconciliation to pass health care could lead to a disastrous backlash in November, and Democrats will do anything that can be done to soften the blow.  I think that the Obama administration is hoping to pass health care reform while keeping the damage from the midterms low enough that Republicans cannot undo the new legislation.

    • The republicans wouldn’t undo the new legislation if it did pass.  Perhaps they’ve promised to do as much, but I’m not aware of said promises which speaks to how serious they are about doing that. 

      In fact a promise to undo it would pretty much kill any effort to try to ram it through especially if they said if reconciliation is used to enact it, it will be used to reverse it. 

      That would be doubling down and the republicans don’t have the balls. 

      • This brings up an interesting question:
        Suppose the Republicans do repeal the legislation.  Is such a bill subject to veto by the President?

  • What video? (link missing?)

  • What if Obama uses the ambush summit, but the voters don’t care – they wanted a no vote by the GOP. Seems like O is playing with fire big time.

    • Keith Hennessey thinks that this whole “health care summit” and new ObamaCare bill are nothing but efforts by the dems to shift blame for their ultimate failure to pass a health care takeover with an eye to mitigating the damage they face in the mid-terms (H/T Hot Air):

      * The President proposes a “compromise” and blames Republicans for being unreasonable and unconstructive. Legislative failure is the Republicans’ fault, not the President’s.

      * Speaker Pelosi continues to press for a two bill strategy in which the House and Senate will pass a new reconciliation bill. If the Senate cannot or will not do so, legislative failure is the Senate’s fault, not the House’s or Speaker Pelosi’s.

      * Supported by outside liberals, Leader Reid points out that the House could just take up and pass the Senate-passed bill. Legislative failure is therefore not his fault or the Senate’s.

      I hope that he’s right and that this effort is D-E-A-D.  We shall see.  However, democrats are like rats trying to get into a granery: they won’t give up.  Then, there’s always the spectre of the GOP, if they get a majority, doing their own bill that will eventually become ObamaCare.  O’ course, Yosemite Sam, Grahamnesty, and the rest will quickly rush to the mikes to explain how they were (gasp!) LIED TO by Imeme, Dingy Harry and the rest and had NO IDEA that those crafty democrats had put language into the bill for single payer, tax hikes, union exemptions, abortion on demand, etc.

      It really ought to be harder to fool a member of Congress, but it is increasingly clear that they constitute the most corrupt, incompetent, and often downright stupid group in the country outside a mental hospital.

      At any rate, the dems clearly know that they are in trouble.  At least, SOME of them do:

      President Obama’s attempt to press ahead with a comprehensive health-care bill on Monday prompted one reaction in Washington more than any other: confusion.
      “I was actually surprised that they’re pushing it again. The most important thing is jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. We need to focus on jobs,” said Rep. Heath Shuler, North Carolina Democrat and a leader of the 54-member Blue Dog coalition of conservative Democrats.
      Shuler, speaking to The Daily Caller on his way out of a meeting of the Democratic caucus on Monday evening at the Capitol, expressed the sentiment that is increasingly common in Washington, the reason so many are scratching their heads at Obama’s insistence on trying to pass a catch-all piece of legislation.
      “I don’t think a comprehensive bill can pass,” he said.

      But, some of them clearly don’t:

      House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, gave a sharp rebuttal to Shuler’s remark.
      “You know what? With all due respect to everyone, we just saw the president’s proposal today. I don’t know that anybody in our caucus is saying we’re not going to pass a bill,” she told The Daily Caller as she left the caucus meeting.
      “We will pass a bill. We will pass a bill,” she said.

      It is interesting to speculate why Imeme, SanFran Nan, Dingy Harry, and the rest of the dem leaders keep ignoring the apparent reality that health care takeover is becoming an absolutely radioactive issue for them, and that even those Americans who want Uncle Sugar to do SOMETHING about health care are much more concerned at the moment with the unemployment numbers.  Is it that Imeme and the rest are insane?  So trapped in the DC bubble that they genuinely don’t know that this is killing them?  Confident that the people really don’t know “what’s good for them” and will thank them once ObamaCare becomes law and they see how gosh-darned wonderful it is?  Who knows?  All I know is that, unless the GOP does something even more stupid than normal between now and November, the dems are gonna get creamed.

      Tee-hee.

  • Obama will lay in sufficient damage before the November elections to throw the country off the rails for a decade, at least.

    What’s his real goal? I think he wants to finally kill off the goose who lays the golden eggs. He wants the U.S. to become a third world country. Everything inside the state, nothing outside the state. There was certainly more than enough foundation for that waiting for him when he came into office, and as you can see he hasn’t hesitated to build on it. And he’s certainly undaunted by massive public resistance to his designs.

    I’m not an optimist about the prospects for a mere change in ownership in D.C. in November, because it’s going to take a lot of guts to do the right thing down there, and so far I see only gutlessness.

    If any of you have listened the past few days to that idiot Bill O’Reilly, you’ll have a sense of what can happen at the mush-brained center of the “center right.” Anyone like that who tries to shoehorn Obama back into the normative terms of American political discourse can just STFU as far as I’m concerned. Reducing this to “policy debates” is like reducing Italian fascism to a policy debate. This is the United States off America, not a European country, not a third world country.

  • If the Republicans do capture the House in nine months, those Bush Republicans who voted for subsidies for corn ethanol and sugar beets and ‘No Child Left Behind’ and huge expanision of Medicare are going to give us their version of expansive and intrusive government in a Republican health care bill.

    Democrats losing the House merely two years after winning it means the new House in 2011 will still be dominated by Bush big-government Republicans.

  • I’m already feeling sorry for Mrs. Reid. 
    Harry is going to beat the hell out of her.
    I hope she will have 911 on speed-dial.

  • “I was actually surprised that they’re pushing it again. The most important thing is jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. We need to focus on jobs,” said Rep. Heath Shuler, North Carolina Democrat and a leader of the 54-member Blue Dog coalition of conservative Democrats.”

    I think I have finally figured out why Obama and company keep coming back to the Health Care issue and avoid doing anything about Jobs – they don’t know how to deal with the Jobs issue!

    They threw Billions of $$ at Jobs through their Stimulus Bill and they got SQUAT for their efforts, no matter how they try and spin it.  They are in the process of pushing through Mini-Stim II and they are clueless as to what it is going to accomplish except more of the same.  It is merely a shadow of the Big Bill passed last year and the results will be the same – SQUAT!

    All of their so-called experts tell them they have to go ALL IN and really push through a multi-Trillion $$ package (see hippy-dippy Nobel economist Paul Krugman) but they are afraid the Tea Party movement will then go Nuclear on their asses!  They won’t try and do the one thing they know will work which is to cut taxes ala Bush – but that won’t do for obvious reasons!!!  So to avoid their own stupidity, they turn back to the only thing that might save them (See Clinton) and that is trying once again to pass Health Care or at least blaming the GOP for the failure.

    So  . . . How’s that Hope & Change working out for you?!?!

    • CBO now claims it was good for 1 to 1.2 million jobs.

    • SShiellI think I have finally figured out why Obama and company keep coming back to the Health Care issue and avoid doing anything about Jobs – they don’t know how to deal with the Jobs issue! [emphasis original – dj505]

      I think that there is much in what you say, but I think Martin McPhillips has another piece of the puzzle: the dems rely on voter misery (such as that caused by unemployment) to gin up support for them and their policies, which are geared toward expansion of the State and eventual elimination of the private sector, something that they do not understand*, cannot control, and hence do not like.  I don’t think they WANT the US to become a third-world country, though this is the inevitable result of their policies and they wouldn’t really mind it very much so long as they get to keep THEIR mansions, private jets, and limos.  So, they must walk a tightrope: misery must be high enough that people think that they need the dems and a big nanny state, but not so high as to either kill the goose that lays the golden eggs OR force people to realize that the nanny is actually more of a prison guard.

      SShiellThey threw Billions of $$ at Jobs through their Stimulus Bill and they got SQUAT for their efforts, no matter how they try and spin it.  They are in the process of pushing through Mini-Stim II and they are clueless as to what it is going to accomplish except more of the same.

      Well, I don’t know that they got squat.  After all, there are billions of dollars that are unaccounted for, spent in congressional districts that don’t exist to create jobs that didn’t actually employ anybody.  That money went somewhere…

      —–

      (*) The libs’ inability to understand the private sector is why a “stimulus” designed by them can no more be expected to work than a bridge designed by a literature major who hated playing with Tinker Toys as a child can be expected to stand.

    • The Democrats aren’t really worried too much about insuring the uninsured right now, but the whole idea of capping the cost is necessary if they do step two, immigrantion reform to bring in millions of new Democrats into the voting ranks, who are the bulk of the uninsured that they really care about.

  • Seventy-one percent (71%) of all voters now view the federal government as a special interest group.

    Breathtaking.   It’s easy to see why fleeing Democrats end up as Independents.

    • Oh, good grief!  As if the GOP didn’t have enough trouble without this peckerhead using his position for nothing more than a fully-funded, five-star ego trip.  Bah.

      And I remember when he was the darling of the GOP.

      We need a better political class.  We really, really do.

  • clearly what happened to team Obama and the congressional Dems is that they (1) started to believe their own BS  (2) started to act like the way they PROJECTED the Republicans had acted, and (3) became eaten up with hubris.
    So, they took an easy one and cocked it all up. They could have gone just a little slwer with their agenda, they could have triangulated just a little, they could have given a little here and there and peeled off a few Rino’s, and if they had done that they would have gotten 99% of everything they wanted.
    But like some totalitarian war machine in it’s final deathmarch they became totally immune to commo sense and acted with all the arrogance and pushiness that they projected onto Bush and the republicans.
    So they scewed themselves, and I laguh at them!

  • This is the subtitle of the piece:

    The Obama administration’s assault on American identity

    It’s by Rich Lowry and Ramesh Ponnuru. Long and a bit tedious, it runs through some of the basics.

    Victor Davis Hanson linked to it at The Corner and offered some thoughts. Here’s one:

    4) “We in Europe are the Obama” — Obama also fails to see the irony that only an exceptionally free and proud America could have provided the military umbrella necessary to Europe’s development into an essentially disarmed socialist society — one dependent militarily and economically on the U.S. largely because we are so unlike it. Or, as a French intellectual whispered to me at a party not long ago, “There is only room in the West for one Obama — and we in Europe are the Obama.”

    • This now requires the proper definition of “the Obama”  … big on themes, empty on execution

  • Good bloody hell:

    “In a letter to Sen. Chuck Grassley, Attorney General Eric Holder discloses that nine lawyers who were appointed to handle detainee issues for the Obama Justice Department had previously worked on behalf of Guantanamo detainees.”

    Recall that Holder’s D.C. law firm was heavy into representing Gitmo prisoners.

  • This just demonstrates how utterly clueless the Demmies are: Tonight, on Softball with Wittle Chrissie Matthews, one of the Three Stooges, Howard “Aaaaarrrrrgggg!” Dean says, with a straight face (because he needs to be in a straight jacket), that the Dems will only lose about 25 seats, but retain the House and the Senate.
     
    This is the same Howard Dean who predicted on Countedout with Keith Blubberman that “health care will be on the President’s desk by Thanksgiving.”
     
    Uh, yeah, Howie. We see how your last prediction went, and I am seem pretty sure this one will go the way of the coocoo birds, or the place where Howard Dean’s brain is.

    • This sort of thing increasingly bothers me.  Politicians and their armies of hired mouthpieces (including their allies in the media ON BOTH SIDES) have spun, distorted, fabribated, falsified, cherry-picked, and otherwise lied so much that it’s impossible to take ANYTHING they say at face value.  Well, the idea that politicians lie is nothing new, but it seems to me that it’s reached the point where even THEY don’t know what they truth is any more.  Worse, because they all play this game, truth loses its value.

      Under the spreading chesnut tree
      I sold you, and you sold me.
      Here lie they,
      And there lie we,
      Under the spreading chesnut tree.

    • The “warped reality based community”