Free Markets, Free People

Independents and key demographics

As I mentioned on the podcast last night, I’ve quit looking at how Democrats or Republicans react to a particular poll. Their reactions are all too predictable. If the Dems are for something by 86%, the Reps will be against it by 90%. Nothing to learn there. Nope, I pretty much zero in on how the independents feel about a particular issue to try to figure out who has the most support. And as I’ve mentioned, more and more the independents seem to be siding with the GOP. That’s not good news for the Dems, no matter what Chuck Schumer thinks.

That brings us to another key to electoral success. Key demographics. We heard so much made of the “young vote” in 2008. They were a key because they actually turned out for once and voted mostly Democratic.  One of the most coveted demographics, however, is that of the elderly – over 65. That’s because they always vote.

So, with that given, let’s take this poll if FL as an example of what’s happening out there.  Yes, it’s a temperature check of the citizens of that state at this time. We all recognize it can change. With that disclaimer out of the way, the usefulness of this poll is found in the information about how independents view recent events.  It also contains info on the key elderly demographic.  For objective observers there are no real surprises.

Florida voters dislike the new healthcare law so much that President Barack Obama and the state’s top Democrat, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, are paying a hefty political price, according to a new survey and analysis by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Only 34 percent of Florida voters support the new law while 54 percent are against it, according to the poll. Opposition is significantly strong among two crucial blocs: those older than 65 and voters with no party affiliation. Seniors disfavor the bill by a 65-25 percent margin, while independents oppose the law 62-34.

The poll, conducted last week, is the first to be taken in Florida since Obama signed the healthcare reform bill into law.

If you’re wondering why the president continues to try to sell this thing and why Nancy Pelosi has told Democrats headed out on Easter recess to do the same, this Florida poll gives you a nice indicator. Independents as a whole oppose the bill almost 2 to 1 and elderly independents show the same level of opposition.  It certainly doesn’t appear that the president’s umpteen speeches or the assurances of Congress that this bill is wonderful have met with much success.  Apparently only the Dems bought into the Bill Clinton assurance that everyone would love them once they passed that law.

Why they think that’s going to change if they just push a little harder, especially with the corporate write-downs in the news, is beyond me (and why is Henry Waxman keeping those write-downs in the news with hearings?).

A couple of other results from the poll to mull:

It shows that Floridians have a more negative than positive view of Obama by a margin of 15 percentage points. And they oppose his so-called “cap-and-trade” global warming legislation as well as the new healthcare law.

Why are FL voters opposed to cap-and-trade?

Only 35 percent believe global warming is proved, while 57 percent say it isn’t an established fact. By a 34-50 percent spread, voters oppose the cap-and-trade legislation. And five times as many voters believe it will raise the cost of fuel.

And I have to say I believe the majority to be correct on all counts.

This has had an effect on the numbers for Democratic Senator Bill Nelson as well. His approval rating has dropped a significant 18 points. His only saving grace is he has until 2012 before he must again run. The bad news may be he’ll be on the same ballot as Obama. As for his sudden unpopularity, this was the reaction of his spokesperson:

“If there’s a dip in the polls, it’s due to this inaccurate and unfair bashing for sticking up for these seniors,” McLaughlin said.

Of course it is – and they’re too dumb to know it, aren’t they Mr. McLaughlin? It is that persistent little thread that I see throughout the Democratic reaction (the dumb rubes are being hornswoggled by the slick Republican pitchmen) to bad poll numbers that indicates they’re still deceiving themselves. The old “it’s not the message, it’s the delivery” fantasy that Dems continue to believe.

In the meantime, the polls continue to tell the same tale, over and over and over again.



5 Responses to Independents and key demographics

  • McQ[W]hy is Henry Waxman keeping those write-downs in the news with hearings?

    It’s the Chicago Way: “Gee, dat’s an awfully nice business ya got dere.  Be a shame if sumpin’ happened to it.”

    I’m sure that Waxman figures that what he’s keeping in the news is crooked, greedy CEO’s.  And, from the perspective of liberals and their mouthpieces in MiniTru, that’s exactly what he’s doing.  Remember: the meme is that ObamaCare is the most wonderful law to come along since the Civil Rights Act and people don’t like it because they’ve been deceived by nasty ol’ Republicans, Fox News, talk radio, all of whom are nothing but paid shills of evil corporations.  To that end, check out this headline from al-AP just this morning:

    THE INFLUENCE GAME: Drug lobby’s health care win

    O’ course, conservatives and libertarians were warning months ago about the sweetheart deal Imeme and the dems were making with Pharma to get their (ahem) support for this monstrosity.  Glad that the media has finally figured it out, if only to keep casting corporations as evil, manipulative, etc.

    Seniors disfavor the bill by a 65-25 percent margin…

    If all the cuts to Medicare that we’ve heard about come to pass, I expect those numbers to become even more unfavorable to the dems.  It’s quite ironic that, after decades of threatening that “the Republicans are going to take away your Medicare!”, the dems actually do it.  This, of course, underscores the ultimate problem with ObamaCare: it has never been about health care, it’s been about reducing the costs to the federal government.  You can’t reduce costs without reducing benefits.  Seniors are about to find that out.

  • That brings us to another key to electoral success. Key demographics. We heard so much made of the “young vote” in 2008. They were a key because they actually turned out for once and voted mostly Democratic.



    “We are worried about ‘the cow’ when it is all about the ‘Ice Cream.’

    The most eye-opening civics lesson I ever had was while teaching third grade this year…..

    The presidential election was heating up and some of the children showed an interest. I decided we would have an election for a class president. We would choose our nominees. They would make a campaign speech and the class would vote.

    To simplify the process, candidates were nominated by other class members. We discussed what kinds of characteristics these students should have.

    We got many nominations and from those, Jamie and Olivia were picked to run for the top spot.

    The class had done a great job in their selections. Both candidates were good kids.

    I thought Jamie might have an advantage because he got lots of parental support.

    I had never seen Olivia’s mother.

    The day arrived when they were to make their speeches.  Jamie went first.

    He had specific ideas about how to make our class a better place. He ended by promising to do his very best. Everyone applauded and he sat down.

    Now is was Olivia’s turn to speak..

    Her speech was concise…She said, “If you will vote for me, I will give you ice cream.”

    She sat down. The class went wild. “Yes! Yes! We want ice cream.”

    She surely would say no more. She did not have to.

    A discussion followed. How did she plan to pay for the ice cream?

    She wasn’t sure.. Would her parents buy it or would the class pay for it.

    She didn’t know.

    The class really didn’t care. All they were thinking about was ice cream.

    Jamie was forgotten. Olivia won by a landslide.

    Every time Barack Obama opened his mouth he offered ice cream and 52 percent of the people reacted like nine year olds. They want ice cream.

    The other 48 percent know they’re going to have to feed the cow and clean up the mess.”

    This is the ice cream Obama promised us!

  • I live in Florida.  I got Nelson email Saturday trying to justify his vote on health care.  I replied, in no uncertain terms that he was an idiot, it was too bad he was not running in 2010, and if he were in the House, he would be a “Pelosi Poodle”.  I couldn’t think of a nice description  for Reid that started with “R”.
    Anyway, Ron Klein is trying to justify his vote on his web site, Nelson is sending email to anyone in sight, and Obama is running around trying to sell this pig.  I would say we have some scared politicians.  It could not happen to nicer guys.