Free Markets, Free People

So let’s talk politics on this semi-Super Primary Tuesday

We’ll start with Sean Trende at RCP who wonders if 2010 is Anti-incumbent, anti-liberal or anti-Democrat. Trende treats us to a very long and analytical argument which can be summed up with “yes, to all three questions”. Trende is of the opinion that Democrats could lose up to 60 plus seats. Newt Gingrich says 70 plus. I’m sticking with at least enough to make Nancy Pelosi something other than 3 heart-beats away from the Presidency. And I’ll be honest – I’m sort of hoping the Dems retain the majority in the Senate. Anyway, read Trende’s article, see if you agree.

Next up is Howard Fineman who is pretty sure that Obama’s strategy for the midterms is to run against the GOP. He sort of fired that first shot today when he said, in a speech, that if the GOP had had its way and his stimulus had not passed unemployment would be a lot worse than it is today. I’m sure someone will remind him soon of his claim that if the stimulus was passed, unemployment wouldn’t go past 8%. He also apparently challenged the GOP, in a speech in Youngstown today, to tell the workers in a steel plant he was touring “why doing nothing would be better for America”.

Here’s a wild stab – we wouldn’t be up to our asses in trillions of dollars of new debt we can’t afford and looking down a budgetary road that promises trillions more of debt we can’t afford.

But hey, that’s just me. Meanwhile, back to Fineman:

Two years later the president is tentatively unveiling the strategy he and fellow Democrats will pursue in this fall’s election season, and it has a heavy dose of … looking backward. It’s going to be as much about history as hope, and more about attacking Republicans than promoting his own vision. The goal is to give pause to independent voters eager to punish Obama for their economic insecurity by voting for GOP candidates. The message: we can’t return power to the very people who gave us the catastrophic Great Recession to begin with.

Does he honestly think that will sell? Seriously now … does anyone think that trying to blame the other party two years into your presidency and 4 years into a Democratic Congress is going to fool anyone but those who want to be fooled? If I were a member of the GOP I’d pray he did this – it would effectively kill the hope and change meme and squarely plant him in the “old style” politician he said he wasn’t. It’s also a strategy that says he can’t run on his record.

Peter Wallsten has a WSJ piece in which he claims Democrats face a threat from their own base. I heard a Pennsylvania Democrat say today he was voting for Arlen Specter because Pat Toomey, the Republican Senatorial nominee, polled much better against Specter than he does against Sestak. Wallsten claims the rebellion is brewing “among white, working-class voters” – the “bitter clingers” of the past campaign. They’re fed up with the Democrats and Obama.

Lloyd Briggs said he is “fed up” with Washington over the Wall Street bailouts. Peggy Cendarski frets that the Democrats’ “unfair” health-care overhaul will punish those who already have good insurance coverage.

These and other Democratic voters in this blue-collar town said they are ready for a change in Washington. Some are open to backing Democratic challengers to lawmakers the party has supported for many years, and some said they may leave the party entirely come November.

There isn’t any apparent passion for Democrats in PA, although there are some very interesting races. But it is clear that what Democrats have done in the past year – with bailouts and huge spending sprees – has not resonated among the base.

More than a third of Democrats, for example, feel their own party members in Congress are “more concerned about the interests of large corporations” than those of average Americans, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released last week.

Not good news for Democratic incumbents, and I might add, not good news for a strategy that plans to call out the GOP for not voting to bail out Wall Street.

So watch the races carefully that are being voted today. They will provide an indicator of the mood of the country (as if VA, NJ and MA haven’t already given us an inkling). I’m particularly interested in the PA race (both senatorial and Murtha’s old district), KY (Rand Paul) and AR (Lincoln). We’ll talk about them tomorrow – but in the meantime, mull all of this over and remember it as we watch the year unfold toward the mid-terms.

~McQ

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11 Responses to So let’s talk politics on this semi-Super Primary Tuesday

  • 1/3 of Democrats think their reps are putting the intersts of large corporations AHEAD of everything else?  I guess I can see it, when you have scum like Chris Matthews basically begging for Obama to nationalize the oil industry and execute the head of BP (no joke – he really did)

    What a dangerous bunch of deranged people. The sooner they lose power, the better

  • McQDoes [Imeme] honestly think ["It's all the GOP's fault!"] will sell? Seriously now … does anyone think that trying to blame the other party two years into your presidency and 4 years into a Democratic Congress is going to fool anyone but those who want to be fooled?

    Short answer: yes.  Why?  Because it’s worked before.  How else can we explain how Imeme got into the White House in the first place?  He’s been making basically the same pitch since he was innaugurated: “Bush screwed things up so badly that I’ve got to spend scads of money just to keep us afloat.” While some people who initially bought this snake oil are starting to realize that it was AND IS a pile of hooey, there are many people, especially in MiniTru, who accept it as gospel.  Look no further than Comrade Fineman, who writes:

    [M]ost fair-minded analysts would say that Obama’s calm leadership, even before he took office, helped save the U.S. and the world from a more widespread and immediate meltdown.

    This would be laughable if it wasn’t a serous meme being aggressively pushed by MiniTru.  The coverse of it is also covered by Fineman:

    [I]t was obvious that outgoing Republican President George W. Bush had made a hash of the economy and led the country into two controversial wars.

    If Fineman sat back on his haunches as just started bleating, “Obama good, Bush baaaad!”, he could hardly seem more like a sheep from Animal Farm.  I’m waiting for Imeme or some other democrat to tearfully demand of his audience, “Surely, comrades, surely you do not want BUSH to come back???”

    Conservatives, of course, won’t buy it.  Tea Partiers won’t buy it (hence why Imeme and his thugs hate them so much; they know their mortal enemy when they see it).  On the other hand, democrats will lap it up.  And independents, who are “independent” not because they are moderate but rather because they are simply willfully uniformed, may be conned into buying it.

    McQIt’s also a strategy that says he can’t run on his record.

    OF COURSE HE CAN.  Oh, not his real record, but rather the one he likes to tout.  You know: where his stimulus package created or saved four six three [insert number here] jobs?  Or where he (as Fineman says) saved the country AND THE WORLD from financial collapse?  Or where he gave us free health care and reigned in those greedy, vicious, EVIL insurance companies?  Or where he reformed Wall Street and made those greedy, nasty, EVIL stockbrokers pay for wrecking our economy?  Cash for Clunkers.  Mortage bailout.  Etc., etc.  Imeme has quite a record… so long as you ask only him or his partisans about it.  It’s part ‘n’ parcel of SanFran Nan claiming with a straight face that the current Congress is the most ethical EVAH! or Joe Biden claiming with a straight face that he’s forgotten more about foreign policy than most people ever learn, or JaNo claiming with a straight face that “the system worked”: just listen, smile, nod, and don’t ask for proof.

  • Rand Paul wins in the KY Senate GOP  primary.

    In related news, imbecilic political science professors immediately begin working on new talking points explaining why the tea party movement is no big deal.

    • No Billy, the meme du jour is how the GOP is being hurt by the Teabaggers, extremists who are purging the party of nice, fair-minded moderates.

      • I’ve got to work harder to keep up with leftist talking points.

        I admit that I’m hamstrung in that effort because I still getting confused by their inconsistency. Going from “they are a small fringe group not big enough to matter” to “they’re a mob that’s hurting the GOP” is just too big a jump for me.

    • Rand Paul?  Who’s he?  According to the honest, unbiased, totally neutral Politico, the REAL story last night was PA-12, also known as “The GOP’s special failure“.

      All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday.

      In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

      Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t the dems have something like a 3:1 registration advantage in PA-12?  Yet, it was a hard-fought campaign for al-Murtha’s annointed successor.

      I don’t want to seem like I’m trying to find a victory in a defeat; I had hoped that Burns would win, and certainly expected him to do a bit better.   But if the dems think that PA-12 means that their majority is safe in November, then I think the REALLY need to put down the bong.

  • Obama will have tough sledding if he tries to run against Bush/GOP again. The more prinicipled members of his base, and a whole lot of folks already are peeved he is like Bush reduxe.
    My advice to the GOP. Run on jobs and the deficit. Here’s how: Offer up spending cuts where 50% of the savings will be used against the deficit and 50% of the deficits used to reduce payroll taxes, to encourage job creation and give the working man a break, not Wall Street. Boom. Democrats dead. p.s. Wait until very close to election to reveal this, or the Dems will steal it…minus the spending cuts.
    Another one might be to implement a flat tax, and link it to how many IRS employees can be made redundant due to the reform.  No one’s gonna cry over those guys looking for jobs. Might freak out the tax lawyers though.

  • Buh-bye Arlen.

    Feeling down? Good. I recommend suicide.

  • The fallacy of looking back is that it bring “Obama Doesn’t Care” clearly into view.
    Meanwhile, Specter doesn’t expire for another 7 months.
    Everybody in DC should look out for another “Magic Bullet”