Free Markets, Free People

"Recovery Summer" is a big "no sale"

Gallup’s latest poll brings us back to reality:

Gallup Daily tracking finds Americans’ confidence in the economy significantly lower so far in July than in June. And confidence in June was, in turn, down from May. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index for July 1-13, at -35, is lower than any monthly average in more than a year.

Recovery summer isn’t off to a very blazing start.  If the administration and its spinmeisters think they’re selling the recovery, they need to “reset” their calculation:

The decline in confidence seen in recent months is owing primarily to mounting public skepticism with the economy’s direction. Thus far in July, 30% of Americans, on average, have said the economy is getting better and 65% have said it is getting worse, for a net -35 economic outlook score. This is down sharply from -13 in April.

Economic confidence is a critical key to any recovery.  Once consumers are sold on the economy’s recovery, positive growth is usually the result.  The opposite is also true.  That’s because consumers who have lost confidence in the economy are more likely to put off buying anything but necessities.  The obvious economic repercussions of that sort of thinking is to slow growth and thus delay (or kill) any recovery. 

The political problem here (I think the economic problems should be obvious to all) is that the confidence of the consumer in the economy is heading down while all the spin is telling us we’re recovering quite well, thank you very much.

In other words, the political sales job on the economy and recover – critical to Democrats going into the mid-term elections – isn’t taking.  Consumers hear the pitch, look around them and not seeing what is said to exist, are rejecting it for the reality they are seeing and living.

Bad mojo for Dems looking at an election in 4 months.  That’s has caused all sorts of inter-party whining, wailing and fighting.  Meanwhile companies do what companies do when they lack confidence in the economy (and the policies of the government) – nothing.

Economically, without a true miracle, things will not begin to turn around sufficiently in the economy to be of any help to Democrats in November.  It appears it isn’t a question of whether or not they’ll lose seats, it is a question of how many.   With the numbers we’re seeing in various polls about how the electorate views the Democratic Congress and Obama administration’s economic policies, it’s clear that most have decided that giving the GOP another chance is the least of their bad choices for this coming election. 

Whether that has much of any impact, given the demonstrated obstinate nature of this administration, in the new Congress (and assuming they take control of at least on house in Congress) remains to be seen.  But if the Republicans take the House, the great blame-shifter in the White House will have a new entity on which to blame any continued economic failure.

Or, shorter for the GOP, be careful of what you wish for.

~McQ

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25 Responses to "Recovery Summer" is a big "no sale"

  • Recognizing that Democrats would be reluctant to record “yes” votes for a budget that would augment the deficit, the House leadership opted to deem as passed a “budget enforcement resolution” instead, just before the July 4 recess. While the distinction between an enforcement resolution and a full budget is largely technical, there is one crucial difference: Under the enforcement resolution, Democrats can no longer use a parliamentary tactic known as budget reconciliation next year — a process Democrats had hoped might allow them to pass key pieces of legislation, such as a jobs bill, with 51 votes in the Senate, as opposed to the usual 60 needed to overcome a filibuster.

    Even if the Democrats hang on to Congress in Novemeber, they’ve shot themselves (and a possible new Republican majority) in the foot.

    • I’ve reread this a couple of times and I’m not sure what the exact meaning of “next year”.  I’m presuming fiscal year.
      This could be a fatal error for hopes of using reconciliation in the lame duck session to add “cap-and-tax’ to a stripped down energy bill that Reid is now introducing.

    • Assuming, of course, that they will abide by the rules.

  • a process Democrats had hoped might allow them to pass key pieces of legislation, such as a jobs bill

     
    Call me Mr. Obvious, but we don’t need any more government jobs.

  • I saw one comment (out there) saying .. if this is “Recovery Summer,” I’d hate to see “Recession Winter”

  • Hard pivot to jobs creation in 3…2…1…

  • The well is now apparently capped (at least while they test the cap) in the Gulf.
    I wonder if Air Force One is scheduled to make a trip to the Gulf ?

    • Before he goes, the Unicorn Emperor will need his own Mission Accomplished sign.
       
      He can go down and give a speech about how future solar and wind power projects and plants in China will save or create jobs and clean up the gulf.

  • Why do I keep seeing a repeat of the 1978/79 malaise stuff coming back? 

  • I’ve been saying this for a year now: its a lot easier to talk down the economy than to talk it up. If you say “things are rough all over” people with good jobs will just figure its them and others are miserable, especially if the legacy media parades one sob story after another in front of them. They’re good at talking things down, Ace estimates the media has at least a 15% effect on growth when a Republican is president.

    Talking it up is harder. If you are out of work or have a part-time job and are struggling, then it doesn’t matter how many happy people and nice stats someone puts on the screen. It still sucks for you.

    • Even in a depression, there are people with jobs. However, it is also clear how hard it is to get a job, so those with them are also afraid. And there is more. The housing market, the fact so many are underwater, and the market is still getting worse. Worse, this far in. And then their is the deficiets and the national debt. So much is bad, all at once.

  • Blame shifting is not going to work. The Obama/Donk true believers already buy into the “It’s all Bush’s fault” mantra. 

    But the independents, the swing voters have pretty much already made up their minds that in opposition to Bush, they elected a horrible, incompetent Marxist. They are not going to be persuaded by any further blame shifting.

  • McQIn other words, the political sales job on the economy and recover – critical to Democrats going into the mid-term elections – isn’t taking.

    Not only that, but I think that the regime is undermining its credibility to the point where many people will not believe a word that they say.  The cynical dishonesty is almost breathtaking: with unemployment (even using jiggered numbers) stubbornly around 10%, The Dear Golfer and his gang keep yapping about how much better things are getting thanks to the wonderful job they’ve done.  It’s no wonder that independents are abandoning them at a cracking pace: the regime demonstrates almost daily that, not only are they incompetent, but also completely, utterly, and perhaps pathologically untrustworthy.  Claiming to have “created or saved” millions of jobs when millions of Americans are chronically out work is bad enough; continuing to claim it is evidence of brazen dishonesty and perhaps even genuine psychosis.

  • Obama has no interest in recovery. He just helped the economy into another cement overcoat today.

    His only concern is the accumulation of power and to eventually achieve his version of the “collectivization of the peasants.”

  • I think the ideal Nov 2010 outcome is Dem majorities by one vote. This keeps Nancy and whoever replaces Harry front and center during the next two years of this debacle. It also forces them to back off because they’ll be highly unlikely to get the votes they need for their more hare-brained scams. So they get pilloried for their stupidity while being unable to create even more problems.

    • I saw a very interesting piece discussing how the GOP could capitalize if they take control.  It would involve them actually governing – passing all sorts of good (by our lights) legislation, and making the Dems and or/Obama be the obstructors.

      • That would work well… if not for MiniTru.  If the GOP wins in November, I’m looking for the word “gridlock” to reenter our national vocabulary in a big way.  After all, the GOP has been blamed for obstructionism these past eighteen months despite the fact that they had little or no ability to actually obstruct anything; if they win, they really CAN be the “party of no”… and MiniTru will take good care to point that out on a regular basis.  MiniTru will also treat any legislation that is “good (by our lights)” as a national catastrophe (remember when Whoopi mused that the election of McCain would bring back slavery?).  We’ve already seen this in New Jersey and California where ANY effort to rein in spending is portrayed as nothing less than a concerted, conscious effort to literally kill to death women, children and minorities.

        And let’s not forget the other party who will scuttle any Republican efforts at good governance: the Republicans themselves.  For every Republican member of Congress who wants to cut spending here, there are ten who want to raise it somewhere else.  There are also the RINO’s who will find themselves gratifyingly popular on the Sunday morning shows if they will criticize any conservative plans to cut spending, eliminate programs, reduce taxes or otherwise try to undo some of the fiscal damage that has been done over the past several years.  Finally, there are always those nice little personal feuds that can be exploited (McCain v. Bush, anybody?) to get the GOP fighting among themselves rather than getting our frankensteinian government under control.

        Yeah, I know: I’m cynical.  But years of watching people like McCain, Lott, Stevens, Graham, Hagel and others make a sick joke of the GOP is enough to do that to anybody.

  • Placing the GOP in control of Congress is the equivalent of placing Fascists in control of Congress.

  • There’s only one thing I want from this congress and this administration, and that is for the door to hit them in the a$$ on the way out.

  • The time for talking is definitely over.

  • Unfortunately without a decently robust third party alternative, which the reigning two parties cooperate (and will continue to cooperate) against to snuff out, you have to pick the devil that is least likely to put you on fast burn – and that applies to ALL of us on either side of this fracas that don’t like ‘our’ party.
     
    Subsequently I have to keep holding my nose and pulling the ‘conservative’ party lever at election time, much as it pains me to vote for someone like John McCain, for example.
     
    Meaning we may not believe the Republicans CAN or WILL fix the problems, but they are at least a bit more likely to toss their sabots into the gears of the Democratic machinery.
     
    But if there’s a sane alternative to voting for the petit Democrats that the Republicans have become,  I for damn sure will take it.

  • I have just seen the New Signs telling me how I need to be happy for this Stimulus Recovery here in Long Beach. When I found out that they spent $20 million on these signs , I gagged and so did my dog as we walked past! I heard Gaffes Biden say, Obama saved 3 million jobs and created ….Now that is just prevarication at the enth degree. Any voter who votes for any Dem in any of the state legislative races or a Dem guv, or any Congressional Dem is slitting their throats on taxing and spending as we can now see with Obamacare, Fiscal so called Reform, and any cap and trade socialist energy programs. Nov. cannot come too soon to keep our market and free enterprise and democratic systems.

  • Unfortunately, most of those jobs Obama saved are jobs Americans won’t do, hence our need for continued illegal immigration.