Free Markets, Free People

So how is November looking for the two parties?

Well, the POLITICO is reporting that, against all odds, the Democrat’s Senate majority may be in jeopardy. Apparently,a Republican polling firm, looking at 13 of the races, found them all to be within the margin of error (however the poll was so small that margin of error is huge). Another – American Crossroads – came up with similar results in a larger poll. As POLITICO points out, both together do suggest there’s an opening for Republican Senate candidates that wasn’t really visible previously. All 13 hot races seem to be very, very competitive.

Then there’s the House. Gallup has the generic Republican up by 6, 49% to 43%. In terms of the "generic" polling, that’s a huge gap. And watching the Democrats thrash around for something to run on beside their record tells you pretty much all you need to know about how the House should go.

Also in play are 37 governor’s races.  Scott Walker, a Republican candidate for governor in WI, makes the point that has elected other governors like Chris Christie of NJ – “austerity is ‘in’”.

And the focus of the people – almost all the people – is the economy.  Most are in no mood, given the shape of the economy, to hear about grand new spending programs or the cost of more government.   What they are interested in hearing about is how government is going to get its books balanced without again reaching into their wallets.

That naturally plays much better for Republicans than most Democrats.  Consequently you could see a good majority of those governor’s races going to the GOP.

So to answer my question in the title – not so hot for the Dems, looking pretty darn good for the Reps.  Of course, winning is step one for the GOP – if they don’t step up and do whatever is necessary to rein in this government, cut spending and work toward reducing the debt, they’ll be looking at a bloodbath as well, two year’s hence.

There’s very little patience among the populous these days.  For the GOP, be careful of what you wish for.

~McQ

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33 Responses to So how is November looking for the two parties?

  • The November election comes too late. The intentionally wrecked train is already a tangled mass of twisted metal and unrecognizable bodies.

    If the Republicans control the next Congress it will be an emergency morgue set up next to the political equivalent of Ground Zero in the aftermath of 9/11.

    If the Democrats retain control, the next Congress will become the mother of all cannibal pots.

    “Our Allende,” Pelosi, and Reid have done a generation’s worth of damage. They have, I believe, put a destructive crack into the extended order itself.

    We will be dealing with this catastrophe for the rest of our lives.

  • I think we may be reaching the “poll fatigue” point.  Am I wrong, or are there several organizations that produce new polls on a near-daily pace?  As for the races, I am surprised to see that the Democrats have not shored up their position, if the polling is accurate.  Polling and discussion have indicated a belief that they will suffer losses in November, but as time passes the belief is that the number of lost seats will increase.
     
    I think you’re right, with the economy still doing poorly and no end in sight, people will get out to the voting booths to show support for the guys who make the more attractive promises.  And it’s always easier to sell the voters on your agenda when you’re the minority party, because you haven’t had the opportunity to actually implement anything.  “Running on your record” seems to be a bad strategy for politicians, doesn’t it?

  • I hope these July & August polls are right and hold up for the November election.   I also hope if the Republicans win the House & Senate they will actually legislate like conservatives.
    Janis Joplin sang:  “Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?”
    I’m singing “Oh Lord, won’t you send Harry Reid to he unemployment line”

    • I share your concern about the actual legislating.  Only a little while Trent Lott talked about “co-opting” newcomers.

      • This is how power behaves.  It is predictable.
        This is why POWER has to be dissipated, back into the hands of the people, and especially OUT of the central government.
        The genius of Federalism…part of it…allows people to make choices about local and state governance, while not IMPOSING those same choices on ALL of us.  If the voters of Massachusetts want to be full-bore communists, I DO NOT care, IF they allow me the right to live in a state that follows the opposite model.
        We HAVE to insist on a return to our charter.  One GOOD election will help, but it won’t carry that goal.

        • If the voters of Massachusetts want to be full-bore communists, I DO NOT care, …

          I care, but it isn’t my business.  It is, however, the business of the millions of Massachusetts residents who dissent and, if they asked me, I’d happily help those people to fight their government’s attempts to steal their lives away from them.

          …IF they allow me the right to live in a state that follows the opposite model.

          You have the right to live your life on your own terms (as long as you respect the rights of others) and nobody is doing you any favors to leave you to your own choices.  They deserve neither thanks nor respect for abstaining from harming you.  And, if they’re harming their close neighbors, they’ll eventually be a threat to you.
          Remember, you eventually run out of other people’s money, so any committed socialist knows to keep expanding the base.

  • I think it is way to early to rely much on the polls. Once we get close to November I think we will see an unprecedented amount of journalistic fraud by the main stream and liberal media supporting the Democrats. Once we see how this effects independents and if they are able to energize African-Americans through claims of racism will the polls be more revealing.——–CONEY

  • More and more the Midterms seem to be hinged on the side whose base is most energized.  And right now that is the Right – Republican/Tea Party mix.  I’ll get back to that later.

    The best example of this is the recent Missouri/Michigan prelims.  Two things sttod out loud and clear to anyone who could look at it with an unbiased eye.  First was the Proposition C Vote.  Prop C, in Missouri, asked the voters to vote Yes if you did not support Health Care Mandates, i.e. forcing a health care tax on individuals who want to opt out of Health Care.  The vote was some 71% yes.  You would have a problem in today’s world to get 71% of the electorate to agree that the sun rises in the East.  So to have such a huge majority essentially voting against the Health Care Mandate was a slap in the face of the Democrats and their agenda.

    Second issue was the overall turnout for both parties.  The voter turnout in both Missouri and Michigan was easily 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans.  That is huge in both states.  Missouri is a purple state but Michigan has been hard core Democrat for some time and to have both of these Primaries turn out 2 Republicans for every Democrat casting a vote is huge – regardless of your agenda.

    Republican/Tea Party Mix:  It appears that this has energized the right even more than previously thought.  You now have a real choice on the right.  Would you the voter prefer the standard Republicn candidate or the Tea Party equivilent, where both appear on the Republican ticket.  For once  there seems to be a real choice to be made and a statment to be made – do I stand with the standard Republican who would tend (generically I might add) to be more Centrist or do I stand with the Tea Party advocate who would tend to be further to the right (again, generically speaking).  I see this as a refreshing alternative to Centrist vs Centrist – or in some cases RINO vs RINO.  I do not believe that a selection one way or the other will split the ticket.  So far, the 3rd Party route seems to be in the minority – and I hope it stays that way.

    The main point is this: Democrats have got to be worried, money advantage or not, given the level of enthusiasm on the right and the seeming despondency prevalent on the left.

  • It was on this very site many years ago that one of the principals said, “I like the Republicans…but only when they are in the minority.”  I suspect it was Dale Franks that said it, but I can’t be sure.  Regardless, we all knew what he meant: when the Republicans become a majority, they start behaving like Democrats.

    Let’s hope that’s not the case this time.

    —Tom Nally, New Orleans

    • Franks might have said that, but that was a conceit advanced by Jon Henke.

      The way I see the two parties is derived from Coulter’s Rule: There are a lot of bad Republicans; There are no good Democrats.

      I put it this way: Democrats are aggressive malignant socialists; Republicans are janitorial socialists.

      If my characterization of the Republicans is correct, their next tour of duty in the majority will largely involve liposuction of ObamaCare, not repeal. They’ll stand around with their d!cks in their hands, per usual, and say, “See how much better she looks with those nice slender Republican thighs and all that jiggle around the triceps tightened up.”

      Switching metaphors, they will inherit a transcendently expensive shantytown that will collapse somewhere else every time they turn around. The truth of the matter is that Obama stepped into a situation that had been ripening for him for fifty years, or more. So many clear distinctions, between right and wrong, what works and what doesn’t, good and evil, had been smudged over that the proof of my concept is that he got nominated and elected in the first place. Once he had the power, along with both houses of the Congress, he was able to lay into America with the virulent effect that no external enemy could have ever achieved.

      And it would be delusional to believe that he is done. This is a man on a mission of destruction. He is uninterested in any further political success. He intends to make this ruin such that it cannot be undone, and then he’s going to sail off to wealth and solipsistic abandonment, talking about the wonders he wrought for the rest of his life.

  • I’ll say it again – best case scenario is for the GOP to win just enough that they have de facto control of both chambers, while the Dems have actual control. Baracky’s agenda will be destroyed and he can’t play the “obstruction” card (though he will try, but since he was crying about it when the Dems had supermajorities as well, I doubt it resonates)

    And while that happens, the GOP can take a load of statehouses and be absolutely “Machiavellian” in the redistricting process LOL.  Remember Erb, no crying.

    • Exactly. Especially because without a GOP president they can’t repeal anything anyways. Better to give the Dems just a little more rope so 2012 becomes the real turning point.
      Though, I think the Dems will slowly switch over to anti-union, less spending – they want to survive after all.

  • ” … if they don’t step up and do whatever is necessary to rein in this government, cut spending and work toward reducing the debt, they’ll be looking at a bloodbath as well, two year’s hence.”
    Yes and no.
    Yes in the same token as when they took power in 1980.
    Tthere is a good book you probably can’t find “Political Coalitions in the 1980s  that has someone who gave an acceptance speech to the effect “We haven’t won the right to pass our agenda.  We have won the right to prove we can govern so that in the future we can pass our agenda.”
    NO the hell to pay will be limited in 2012.   The Dems are defedning 24 seats to 9 … there isn’t much to lose.   BUT if they don’t show some kind of good sense, they could end up giving Obama a second term which would in effect be complete loss.
     
     

  • Of course, winning is step one for the GOP – if they don’t step up and do whatever is necessary to rein in this government, cut spending and work toward reducing the debt, they’ll be looking at a bloodbath as well, two year’s hence.

    If the GOP doesn’t get it together, the bloodbath will encompass the entire nation, thoroughly engaged in a last ditch feeding frenzy, not just the political parties.

  • There is reality .. and then there is perceived reality.
    Take the Democrats .. they took control of the Congress in 2006 but nobody noticed .. outside of DC.
    Obama will have the same problems Bush had come two years down the road .. a war that Democrats don’t like, deficits, a Congress that he doesn’t control.  It will be hard for Obama to focus the American people’s attention on Congress, no matter what they are doing, when the Narcissist-in-chief won’t share “face time” with them.

    • Neo, except that the Media manages to make sure everyone is informed when its a GOP congress…not so much when its a Dem congress…

  • Let’s ask the “unaskable question” … Will Obama “Wag the Dog” ?

    • Well, yes, of course that’s coming. And Republicans will be right there cheering him on for it, because they want Iran’s nuclear facilities destroyed. But I would caution anyone who gets enthusiastic about Obama pumping military steroids in on top of the presidential steroids. If he doesn’t know what he is doing in any other regard, it’s inconceivable to me that those who want to get things done on the heavy duty national security agenda would want Obama to handle it.

      It’s a recipe for something unspeakable.

      • Take your cues from Jimmy Carter to get an idea of an Obama military action.  It will look something like Operation Eagle Claw (or Operation Evening Light or Operation Rice Bowl) none of which is not remembered in the Presidential or military highlight reels.  No wonder the Iranians are digging large mass graves.

    • No, he will not. He is going to enjoy the perks of office and blame the GOP Congress for everything. Its his natural MO and it worked for Clinton too. This way he gets to play President but not be required to do anything.
      Any war that happens on Obama’s terms (he will be re-elected barely I think) will be foreign forces thinking he is weak.

  • I think it’s too optimistic to think that even if the republicans take control of one or both houses, they’ll do much to roll back any of this mess.  First, Obama will just veto it and they won’t aquire veto proof majorities.  Second, people want their perks, they just don’t want to pay for them, so it will be difficult to get a consistent majority of voters actually behind cutting entitlements.  And no one believes they’re going to stop earmarks and pork.
    Pub’s are playing the same game as the Dem’s just at a more moderate pace.

    • There will be cuts made – when it is finally impossible to keep putting them off. I agree that 2010 is too early. It might happen first in the states, and then morph into federal elections.

  • The Republicans winning congress sure helped Bill Clinton move to the middle and win his second term.   Could the same happen for Mr. Obama?

  • The democrats passed the teachers and state workers UNION stimulus today.  They will expect a lot of pay back in the upcoming election.  Let’s see the Fed sends stimulus money to save teachers jobs just as school is starting back – no teacher lay offs – teachers pay their union dues – the unions spend tons of money for ads for democrats – unions donate tons of money in democrat districts.  That sounds about right to me.

  • Keep in mind that this teacher bailout also amounts to a huge contribution by Democrats to their own election campaigns. The National Right to Work Committee estimates that two of every three teachers belong to unions. The average union dues payment varies, but a reasonable estimate is that between 1% and 1.5% of teacher salaries goes to dues. The National Education Association and other unions will thus get as much as $100 million in additional dues from this bill, much of which will flow immediately to endangered Democratic candidates in competitive House and Senate races this year.

     
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704164904575421613093659730.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop