Free Markets, Free People

Democrats whistling past the midterm graveyard

II’m always entertained by those on either side of the political spectrum who, when faced with an obvious and impending defeat, begin lists of why that won’t happen. This whistling past the graveyard is truly a testament to thinking which can somehow put aside every negative fact out there and some how spool up a "positive" outcome for his side. Today’s example is from a Democratic strategist who has discovered four more reasons Democrats will win in the mid-terms.

He sounds strangely like Republican strategists about a month before the 2008 presidential election who had umpteen reasons why McCain would win, none of which panned out. I have a feeling our Democratic strategist will have to reevaluate his ability to objectively analyze political races after the vote in November.

Nevertheless, his four reasons are, 1) Democrats will end up spending as much money as Republicans, 2)Voters aren’t voting for "generic" Republicans and that’s not good for Republicans, 3)Obama has switched to "campaign mode" and will save the day, and 4)the "enthusiasm gap" will close.


I feel for the guy. This is the thin thread upon which he hangs his hopes that Democrats won’t lose the majority in the House or seats in the Senate.

Feel free to read his "reasoning". It is full of stuff that might appeal to a political junkie who is knee deep into the whys and wherefores of this election. But for the average Joe – meh.

As the public’s attention as a whole slowly turns toward this November election, they will be guided by their overall perception of the shape of our country and its economy and who it is they think got us in this shape.  It is going to be incredibly hard shift the blame on the Republicans.  Crying about partisanship and in-fighting isn’t going to answer the mail.  For most, I would guess, the blame has already been placed.  So massive expenditures and “robust” GOTV efforts are unlikely to have the effect this gentleman might expect.  And, as he notes, the other side is going to be spending too – as well as mounting their own GOTV effort.

As for his point about Obama and campaign mode, let me beg to differ.  When has he ever switched out of that mode?  That’s part of his problem and why his job approval rating is 42% and only 38% say they’d vote to reelect him if the election was held today.  You’ve got politicians running from him.  HIs signature “accomplishment” is something not a single Democrat will campaign on.  And, you have professionals like Charlie Cook continuing to move races, as he did with 4 today, from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” (see bottom right).

And that fact naturally speaks much more eloquently to this fantasy of closing the enthusiasm gap than anything else I can think of.

The Democrats are in a pickle of their own making.  They have had control of the Congress for 6 years and are hooked up to a failing presidency.  Those stark facts are what the public is going to take with them to the polls, and barring some economic miracle within the next 30 days, all this talk about generic politicians, the savior Obama, enthusiasm gaps closing and money to be spent is going to sound a lot like “we know McCain’s going to win and here’s why”.

Sometimes what is going to happen is just obvious – and this seems to be one of them.



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11 Responses to Democrats whistling past the midterm graveyard

  • He sounds strangely like Republican strategists about a month before the 2008 presidential election who had umpteen reasons why McCain would win, none of which panned out.

    >>> Brngs to mind that pre-election post that was run here (quite close to the election) about how some guy had done extensive research and came up with a plausible sounding (we thought lol) rationale about why McCain would take PA, and thus wind up winning the election.


  • They don’t call it the “Silly Season” for no reason.
    It’s funny though, because Dems have often acted like the GOP still has control of the Congress.

    • That is probably the most damning fact.  Trying to create the perception that things would be better if the GOP hadn’t blocked all of this great legislation falls flat in the face of two things: the sizable majorities they enjoy in both houses of Congress, and the fact that most of the legislation that they’ve managed to pass has been either ineffective (bailouts, stimulus, GM takeover, etc) or unpopular (Obamacare, Cap and Trade).  And there’s really no way to deflect the blame for the lack of a budget for the coming fiscal year, or the unpopularity of their desire to raise taxes (under the insultingly transparent cover of ‘allowing tax cuts to expire’).
      As I said previously, the one thing worse than being inept, is being inept and condescending.

  • It would be very sad indeed if Democratics maintained majorities in the House and Senate next year.

    Conservatives do need, however, to avoid complacency.  In order to bring about a real change, conservative votes need to be actually cast and accurately counted, and neither of these accomplishments can be taken for granted.  Now that the TEA Party has attended rallies, it is needful to show up to vote, watch that the votes are fairly counted, and hold the elected officials accountable for TEA Party supported policies.

  • Well, after Palin was selected but before the financial crisis hit, it looked like McCain could win.

  • I think the whistling you are hearing is pucker from sphincters…no other place.  This is really looking to be a WAVE election.
    The hard part for those of us who give a flip about Constitutional government is what happens AFTER the election.
    We have only begun a LONG, HARD, EXPENSIVE process

    • RagspierreWe have only begun a LONG, HARD, EXPENSIVE process[emphasis original – dj505]

      This is unfortunately true.  Even if we cut the federal government / budget to 1960 levels, we are so friggin’ in debt that we’d have to keep taxes and “spending” high just to pay our debt.  We’ve dug ourselves into a huge hole.  At least people are starting to get interested in not digging deeper.

  • What else are the Liberals going to say? 

    We passed Obamacare and we’re proud of it.  Of course, my family has special government coverage because I support you, my constituents, and you don’t want me to wait in a line.  We needed that $500B from medicare to pay for the illegal aliens.  The Medicare patients are all so old they offer little to the Greater Good.

    Cap & Trade will make energy prohibitively expensive so we can save the planet.  Buy a Smart Car or a Leaf or a Volt or one of those Prius things.  Our Gov’t SUVs are all being fitted with video cameras so we don’t crush you when we back up. 

    I know none of you will mind paying more taxes.  All these new intitlements need the cash.

    Hey look, illegal immigrants are already here, we have to give them amnesty and register them to vote.  Doing otherwise would be unfair!

    In the next session, we plan to pass legislation forcing businesses to hire the unemployed.  We’ll make it a quota system.  After all we can’t keep them on unemployment compensation forever.

    We are always looking for ways to reduce government spending.  For example, effective 1 January 2011, the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader will fly coach (unless they are democrats).
    I’m a professional politician and I know what’s best for you.  Trust me!