Free Markets, Free People

Unemployment Preview

According to Gallup’s private read on unemployment, we currently stand with an unemployment rate of 10.1%. Gallup says:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September — up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month — the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September — and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday.

The government’s final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup’s modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday’s ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government’s national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup’s mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

So, when looking at the numbers we have from ADP, showing a 39,000 job loss for the month, plus the sharp spike upward in the last half of September, tomorrow’s unemployment figures from the BLS will miss most of the job losses, and will show a national unemployment rate that is smaller than it truly is.

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8 Responses to Unemployment Preview

  • And that doesn’t take into account UNDEREMPLOYMENT (college grads, including sciences majors) working for minimum wage, or people whose hours have been severely curtailed.
    And it doesn’t account for people who have just given up, though many are going back to school – for what I couldn’t imagine except to go from $8 an hour to $9 an hour.

  • The government will do whatever is necessary to ensure its official number doesn’t reach double digits.

  • ” tomorrow’s unemployment figures from the BLS will miss most of the job losses, and will show a national unemployment rate that is smaller than it truly is.”

    Which will be corrected, barely mentioned, and hastily buried, after November 2nd.

    • On the contrary, if Republicans make the kinds of gains that they are hoping for, I expect that the next day’s headlines will read something like “Unemployment figures adjusted upwards as Republicans gain control of congress.

      • Ah, excellent point.
        What we need to observe, clutching our life jackets firmly, is that IF the Republicans wrest control of the ship in November, that  Captain O’Moron, and the operators of the ships PA systems (Able idiots CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, CNN, NYT, etc)  will exert their best efforts to convince us that we are now all totally and completely doomed, rather than allow the situation to improve.  I’m sure they still have the scripts from 8 years of the ‘George W. Bush and the Republicans are destroying the economy’ show to fall back on.

  • They warned me that if I voted for John McCain, the economy would end up in the crapper, and they were right.