Free Markets, Free People

Early voting numbers may spell Harry Reid’s electoral doom

Sharon Angle might not be anyone’s choice for Senator if she were running against anyone else, but apparently when the opponent is the much loved Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, she’ll do just fine:

In Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’s Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state’s voter population.

[…]

Some 47 percent of early voters in the bellwether Washoe County so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats, according to the Washoe County Registrar. Nearly 11,000 people had voted in Washoe over the first three days of early voting, which began Saturday.

Voter registration in the county is evenly split, 39 percent to 39 percent. The disproportionate turnout is a concrete indication of the Republican enthusiasm that is expected to portend a nationwide GOP wave.

Early voting is often an indicator of how a race will go on election day as it tends to demonstrate which side has, as the article notes, the most enthusiasm about the election. Right now the numbers are pointing to a decided advantage for the GOP.

Well, you say, that’s a heavily Republican county. What about turnout in a heavily Democratic one? The news is pretty much the same:

In Clark County, which is heavily Democratic, more Democrats than Republicans have voted, but Republicans are outperforming their share of the electorate.

Out of the nearly 47,000 votes cast in Clark County, 46 percent were Democrats, 39 percent Republicans, according to the Clark County Election Department. But while Democrats make up 46 percent of the county’s registered voters, Republicans constitute just 33 percent.

Harry Reid, the best argument going for not using seniority as a basis for picking your leaders, may end up being a statistic. Perhaps his loss will push unemployment back up over 10%. It would be a fitting end for a politician who has done much to "lead" us into the mess we now suffer.

I know its early and yes, I know he could eek out a win, but I’m just feeling it in my bones. Angle will be a junior Senator with little power and someone Nevadans can get rid of in 6 years if she turns out like I think she will. But I think they’re realizing that in relative terms, she’s a small price to pay for getting rid of Harry Reid.

I say, “Amen” to that.

~McQ

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12 Responses to Early voting numbers may spell Harry Reid’s electoral doom

  • I’m not sure if I buy this analysis.  It shows that voter enthusiasm is high.  This will likely be better for Republicans.
    The problem is that there is still 6 weeks to go.  It’s one thing if this were the day of the election and enthusiasm was high.  Then the information would be coming too late.  But 6 weeks?  That’s a lot of time for the Dems to do get out the vote and count the dead efforts in an attempt to redress the balance.
    I’d still suggest not getting cocky.

  • Correction, Jeff. There are 2 weeks or so left (November 2) and if we’re seeing this kind of enthusiasm now, I can’t wait to see what election day is going to be like. So I think the signs are very good that Harry will go down.  Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

  • Doh!  Still 2 weeks is a lot of time.  We’re nowhere close to being within the Democrats OODA loop.

  • Angle will be a junior Senator with little power and someone Nevadans can get rid of in 6 years if she turns out like I think she will.

    Care to be specific?  Or, like your description of O’Donnell, you should merely limit the specifics to “not the perfect candidate.”
    And so they oust Reid – yeah, that’s good – but the Dems will still hold a majority and merely elect another douchebag leader.  But what of the long-term consequences for the tea-party movement.
    It will whither on the vine.
     
    Sure, there might be a couple of good ones in there, but you’ve got a host of “tea party” candidates who do and say the craziest things.  And what of the one that might actually get elected?  Well, she’ll be a “junior Senator who will turn out like we think she’ll turn out.”
     
    Umm… Yay, tea party!?!
     
    Too bad.  It started out so well and had such potential.  Then the whack-jobs and theo-cons came in and… there you have it.
     
    Cheers.

    • Pogue’s description of his first child: “He started out so well and had such potential.  Then he started pooping his diaper and spitting up and… there you have it.”
       
      Look, I’m too cynical after a lifetime of disappointment in politicians to get my hopes up too much. But these folks look like the best effort in my lifetime to push us in the direction of limited government.
       
      They’ve had less than 18 months so far, and this is their first major election. Sure, some of the candidates are amateurish. This is surprising? At least their heart is in the right place, and I sure can’t say that about Harry Reid, et. al.
       
      Besides, so far, they’ve pushed out some contemptible, self-centered politicians, such as Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski. Plus some mushy time servers, such as Bennett in Utah and Castle in Delaware. That means they’re already ahead of the curve in my book.
       
      Let’s survey the scene on Nov 3 and see what we’ve got. No, it won’t be perfect. Heck, it won’t even be anything capable of making significant change as long as Obama is prepared to stonewall. It *might* be an interesting foundation for 2012.
       
      In short, it’s a start. So it’s kind of early for your world-weary cynical tone, don’t you think?

      • Meanwhile Nancy Pelosi can say “We need to pass the bill to find out what’s in it” and she will get re-elected and is not considered crazy.
        Or we can elect a really smoooove talker without any executive experience to be President, but that’s not crazy.
         
         
         

    • Ousting Harry Reid is a victory in itself.  No small reward in that itself.  It sends a hell of a statement.
       
      Yeah, he”s incumbent for a bazillion years, yeah he had the democratic campaign coffers at his disposal, yeah being leader he could bring home the bacon and yeah his opponent was a flake.  But the policies he’s implemented in the past few years are so deeply rejected, none of that mattered and he was wished into the cornfield.

      • And I believe that is the most irksome for the left and why they are so ready to find any reason to change topic.  They aren’t being voted out of corruption.  At least it never caught up with Harry before.  And they aren’t being voted out because of people just simultaneously want a change for the heck of it.
         
        They are being voted out for their policies.

    • It’s kind of frightening to think that Congress (as a group and individually) can poll so poorly and disappoint so thoroughly, yet the parties can still manage to find people that make it difficult to vote against an incumbent.

  • Well, you say, that’s a heavily Republican county.

    That’d be an odd thing to say about a 39-39 even split in registrations…

  • I wish that these sorts data would not be reported as they can (and probably do) affect the outcome: people don’t vote because they get the idea that it’s a foregone conclusion.  It also MAY add a bit of impetus to any plans for chicanery: “OMG!  We’re getting pounded!  Activate Plan B: canvas every graveyard you can find!  Round up every homeless drunk you can lay your hands on!  Start examining the ballots for ANYTHING that we can use to claim that the voters were deliberately misled!  AND GET BOISE ON THE PHONE!”

    Billy Hollis[Tea Party candidates] look like the best effort in my lifetime to push us in the direction of limited government.

    Amen.  And, really, are we seeing anything from tea party people (Angle, O’Donnell, etc.) that we don’t see from long-time politicians, the “elites” who have been running our country into the ground for decades?  Gosh, some of the tea party candidates say things that can (sometimes fairly) be construed as loopy, ignorant or outright dumb!  Fair enough: did any of them misstate the number of states in our country, as did The Dear Golfer?  Or yap about FDR going on TV in ’29 to reassure that country about the Great Depression, as did Plugs?  How about assaulting somebody, as did No. Carolina Representative Etheridge or NY Representative Hinchey?  Maybe they sort-of forgot to pay all their taxes, like Taz Rangel.  No?  Well, surely they steered government money to companies and  banks controlled by their spouses, like DiFi and Maxie.  Uh-uh?  Then… why SHOULDN’T we vote for them instead of the corrupt, arrogant, and frankly stupid bunch of courthouse loafers that we have in DC now?

    Quite aside from hoping that the tea party candidates represent a first wave of people who will (slowly, perhaps) return our government to something like what the Founding Fathers intended, I also hope that they explode the myth that members of Congress, simply by virtue of their lofty titles, are somehow smarter, wiser, and more knowledgable than the rest of us, luminous being who shouldn’t ever even be questioned, much less removed from their phoney-baloney jobs.  Castle, Murkowski, and Crist have given us a good look at how disgracefully entitled these people feel themselves to be; the sooner the lot of them are among the ranks of the unemployed, the better.