Libya: Military Science 101 at work
I noted the other day that once Gadhafi’s forces figured out how to adapt to the coalition presence and tactics, they’d probably begin to swing the momentum back to their side. Why? Because they’re better trained and equipped than the “rebels”. According to AP that has already begun:
Gadhafi’s forces have adopted a new tactic in light of the pounding that airstrikes have given their tanks and armored vehicles, a senior U.S. intelligence official said. They’ve left some of those weapons behind in favor of a "gaggle" of "battle wagons": minivans, sedans and SUVs fitted with weapons, said the official, who spoke anonymously in order to discuss sensitive U.S. intelligence on the condition and capabilities of rebel and regime forces. Rebel fighters also said Gadhafi’s troops were increasingly using civilian vehicles in battle.
The change not only makes it harder to distinguish Gadhafi’s forces from the rebels, it also requires less logistical support, the official said.
This was both predictable and inevitable (the same thing happened in Kosovo).
Think about it – what is the hardest thing to distinguish? Whether or not a civilian vehicle is occupied by good guys or bad guys. Make your side pretty much identical from the air to the other side and it makes the job the coalition has undertaken much harder. That’s precisely what the Gadhafi troops have done.
AP also throws this out there:
The shift in momentum back to the government’s side is hardening a U.S. view that the poorly equipped opposition is probably incapable of prevailing without decisive Western intervention – either an all-out U.S.-led military assault on regime forces or a decision to arm the rebels.
I hear a lot of talk about the US (or others) arming the rebels and how that will make the difference. Nonsense. While not having the weaponry that the other side has is indeed a disadvantage, it isn’t the rebel alliance’s biggest problem. Their biggest problem is they’re an untrained and undisciplined rabble. And an untrained and undisciplined rabble confronting even marginally trained troops with at least a modicum of discipline are going to lose if all else is equal.
While weapons may help, they certainly won’t make the difference.
The battlefield setbacks are hardening a U.S. view that the opposition is probably incapable of prevailing without decisive Western intervention, a senior U.S. intelligence official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity.
I assume our “unique capabilities” will again be in demand as others “volunteer us” to be a part of the “intervention” that seems inevitable. Obviously Obama doesn’t want this going on for long but it appears that Gadhafi and his supporters have both the will and the means to defy Obama’s wish. That leaves the US with the specter of a long and drawn out civil war with the coalition ineffectively hanging out at 30,000 feet.
Finally, we find out today that the CIA is operating among the rebels. Given their huge history of success in these sorts of endeavors, that has to give you a warm fuzzy feeling, huh? And while I wouldn’t technically claim it violates Obama’s “no boots on the ground” pledge, it does stretch it a bit.