Free Markets, Free People

Prediction FAIL–what happened to all the “climate refugees”?

You perhaps recall that the AGW doomsayers, via the UN, announced in 2005 that by 2010 there would be 50 million “climate refugees” driven from their homes by the adverse effect of global warming. 

It’s always nice to check up on the accuracy of such predictions to gauge how well they jibe with reality.

In this case, it’s a complete miss.  As most of us know, the measured “global temperature” has been steadily going down (as the natural cycles of the earth again do what they’ve done for billions of years).  So what’s the status of all of those refugees?

Well, Gavin Atkinson gives us a nice little update based on the recent census data from various “at risk” places.  Remember, we were supposed to see the first effects of warming on the “very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean”.



Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas.  The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.

St Lucia:

The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.


Population 2002, 81755

Population 2010, 88311

Solomon Islands:

The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.

It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100-thousand.

How about all those cities that were going to be underwater because of melting glaciers and ice packs?

Meanwhile, far from being places where people are fleeing, no fewer than the top six of the very fastest growing cities in China, Shenzzen, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai, Puning and Jinjiang, are absolutely smack bang within the shaded areas identified as being likely sources of climate refugees.

Similarly, many of the fastest growing cities in the United States also appear within or close to the areas identified by the UNEP as at risk of having climate refugees.

When it all comes down to it, AGW increasingly appears to fall in the category of the usual lefty doomsaying that never lives up to the fear factor with which its proponents attempt to radically change the way we live in order to supposedly save us from ourselves.    Think the population bomb with fossil fuel as the target instead of government mandated population control.

Of course the unfortunate thing is many of our politicians on the left and a whole raft of politicians throughout the world (and particularly in the UN) continue to push this farce.  The reason is simple.  There’s a whole lot of money to be extracted from this scare.  World governments can cash in on a “problem” they’ve literally invented out of thin air.

So don’t look for it to go quietly into the night.  All that crap about putting science first is just that.  They’ve picked their side for obvious reasons and intend to push it all the way to the bank. 

That’s one of the reasons stories like this need to be highlighted – so when they inevitably try to get in you wallet again, you have something to fight back with.  This is the reality of their predictions – and it is completely the opposite of what their “science” told them would happen.



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19 Responses to Prediction FAIL–what happened to all the “climate refugees”?

  • Well, didn’t The Annointed One (as he was then known) tell us that the seas would start to recede on the day he was nominated?  See?  There’s a prediction that DID come to pass.

    / sarc

  • Climate refugees are like any either climate change effect… could be more, could be less, could be much the same. This is all within the ranges predicted by the computer models I believe you will find, and absolutely *no* reason to cease funding, cut-off junket trips or, hey, who’s that laughing???

  • >sarc on<
    “Remember, we were supposed to see the first effects of warming on the “very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean”.
    Ahem!  Ahem!  I think you underestimate the danger!  These Islands, if not in danger of sinking from the additional weight of the extra population alone, are certainly in danger of capsizing at least!  Crowds of them could gather in one place for a global warming rally and the next thing you know they’re in the ocean and the underside of the island is now on top!  The Science is settled, do you REALLY think a representative to the Congress of the United States of America would ever hold such views if they weren’t backed by accepted consensus and hard science!
    And how do you explain all those Mexicans immigrants to the US eh?  Obviously they are fleeing, fleeing I tell you, the country of Mexico due to a combination of excess heat and rising ocean levels!
    I fail to understand what risk there is in protecting ourselves from the coming heat storms!  What about the children!  Would less pollution be so bad?  Don’t you want blue skies and singing birds?  Why do you want to kill old people who won’t be able to afford boats to save themselves?!!!
    >sarc off<
    I’m sure I missed something didn’t I?

    • Don’t the rich countries of the world OWE it to less developed countries to give them money that will help them develop to… um… er… reduce the threat of global warming climate change climate disruption???

      And don’t you want to reduce our dependency on foreign oil???

      Sad thing is, the left makes these excuses with an utterly straight face when the facts of “climate change” (snort) don’t quite pan out.

      • Yeah.  But after reading that story yesterday out of Bolivia about giving “Mother Earth” the same rights as humans.  It was clear that to get that money they had to give up a lot.

        The country, which has been pilloried by the US and Britain in the UN climate talks for demanding steep carbon emission cuts, will establish 11 new rights for nature.

  • The perception that the oceans are rising is an interesting one.
    I found this interactive map of Japan that showed the “sea level” over a period of time.  You could go from each town and city and check out their history.  What was interesting was that in some towns and cities, the “sea level” was going up, as these folks say it should, and then right next door in a town not 30 miles away, the history would show “sea level” going down.  There didn’t seem to be any discernible pattern which made me wonder if the sea is doing one thing … and the ground is doing something else.

    • There is a really long pattern of the sea and the earth not getting along well.  They seem locking in some false dichotomy, and have lost all sense of the greater middle.
      This is a rich field for future diplomacy.  With Facebook.

  • Long before there are any refugees from rising seas you’ll see clever rich people bailing out of their sea-fronting properties, leading the market in a general collapse of beach properties. No way that various billionaires and multi-millionaires are going to take a bath in that market! Does anyone see this happening at the moment, or even back during the height of the hysteria? Nah, thought not. Follow the money…

    • Like all Malthusian BS, the smart money will bet against the predictions.
      It was ever thus.
      Which is not to say that individual witch-doctors will not make out like bandits occasionally.
      But look where OwlGore bought his latest palatial estate.  ‘Nuff said…

  • What kind of idiot makes a prediction with an actual number and an actual date.
    You’re supposed to do only one or the other, or neither.
    “Climate Change could produce up to 50 million refugees in the future”
    “Climate Change could force people to flee their homes as early as 2010.”
    p.s. Does Katrina count?

    • Two types:

      1. Religious true-believers
      2. Naive scientists

    • “p.s. Does Katrina count?”
      No, because George W. Bush blew up the levies around New Orleans, probably the explosives were left over from the WTC and they needed to dispose of them, an alternate, and equally plausible I might add, theory is he may have been trying to get Ray Nagin, who hired assassins to kill his father back in the the early 90’s.

    • “Climate Change could produce up to 50 million refugees in the future”
      … or ecnomists making SWAGs (Simple Wild Ass Guess) of economic performance …
      “This will save $34 tillion over the next 13 centuries”
      … both are equally useless

  • Easterbrook’s law of doomsaying holds: Predict dreadful events whose arrival impends no sooner than 5 years hence, no later than 10. That time window is near enough to cause worry, far enough off that when it actually rolls around everyone will have forgotten what you predicted.

    … with the internet remembering “everything” I’m sure this needs a revision

  •  Florida adapted to climate refugees long ago. They are called tourists, or ‘snowbirds’. Or ‘suckers’; the yankees who pay for Florida real estate sight-unseen and then find that, due to rising sea levels, it has turned into swampland.

  • I recall a year or so back reading a pouty little just-you-wait op-ed by some Bostonian hot earther.  The gist of it was that doom (doom!  I say!) was headed inexorably for all of us carbon-spewing redneck denialists.  We were gonna be really really sorry when we all started drowning and then we’d try to come crawling to his oh-so-elevated eden, but he would just laugh in our faces.  Wish I could remember his name.  I’m having one of those days that puts me in the mood to go savagely mock some supercilious a-hole, and this news is just the ticket.