Election 2012–the shape of things to come?
Larry Sabato has released a first look at how things appear today in reference to the 2012 Presidential election. As he says, it’s only use is to establish a “baseline” from which to watch the events and the trends over the next year plus before the election.
As it stands now, the electoral votes for the Safe, Likely and Leans numbers are 247 for Dems and 180 for Reps. Note the toss up states (111 EVs). They say a lot.
Remove the leaners and you’re at 196 D and 170 R. That, at least to me, is a much more likely place to start. The leaners and tossup states are going to be the obvious places to watch. Not including them leaves 172 EVs to be claimed. You need 270 to be elected.
So … have fun and speculate away.