Free Markets, Free People

Why aren’t we seeing a jobs recovery? Maybe it’s ObamaCare’s fault

So you’re wondering why the “recovery” stalled?  Well we all know that correlation is not causation, but this sure looks suspicious doesn’t it?

 

Heritage-Chart

 

So looking at the chart, we see job growth starting to pick up at an average of 67,000 a month.  Not earth shattering, but much better than the average (ten times less) after the passage of ObamaCare.

Why, people wonder, would something like that happen with the passage of a bill that is supposed to improve health care and make it cheaper to boot?  Wouldn’t that encourage people to hire and expand.

Well … no.  Because we had to pass the bill to find out what was in the bill.  And what we’ve found out is none to pleasing.

As Tina Korb points out at Hot Air:

As the report states, correlation cannot prove causation — but the change in course is statistically measurable and testing reveals a structural break between April and May of 2010. Moreover, small-business owners have said Obamacare is a deterrent to hiring. Take Scott Womack, the owner of 12 IHOP restaurants in Indiana and Ohio, as just one example. Before Obamacare became law, he had development plans in Ohio. Now, he’s worried he won’t be able to carry out his original plans unless Obamacare is repealed. Those restaurants he planned to open would provide jobs not only for his future employees, but also for everyone involved in the construction of the restaurant buildings themselves.

But … and you knew there was one, this threw a wrench into everyone’s works.  Why?  The Heritage Foundation points out 3 reasons businesses are discouraged from doing so by the law:

  • Businesses with fewer than 50 workers have a strong incentive to maintain this size, which allows them to avoid the mandate to provide government-approved health coverage or face a penalty;
  • Businesses with more than 50 workers will see their costs for health coverage rise—they must purchase more expensive government-approved insurance or pay a penalty; and
  • Employers face considerable uncertainty about what constitutes qualifying health coverage and what it will cost. They also do not know what the health care market or their health care costs will look like in four years. This makes planning for the future difficult.

Korb provides the link between what that law is doing and the current debt and deficit talks going on in Congress:

The Heritage report recommends repeal — and comes as a welcome reminder that the health care law can’t be ignored as the president and Congress attempt to address the debt and deficit or as the nation attempts to right the still-struggling economy. Nor can it be ignored in the upcoming presidential election. Likely U.S. voters have said jobs and the economy are their No. 1 issue. That means the repeal of Obamacare should be a top priority, too.

Couldn’t agree more.  I’ve seen any number of people saying “yeah, repeal it” but then asking “what are you going to replace it with”?

Uh, personal responsibility?  How about we try that for a change?   It is each citizen’s job to care for themselves and do (and pay for) those things necessary to see that they aren’t a burden on the rest of the citizenry.

What a concept, huh?

~McQ

Twitter: @McQandO

24 Responses to Why aren’t we seeing a jobs recovery? Maybe it’s ObamaCare’s fault

  • Now, to be sure, there are plenty of Americans who are firmly convinced that we would all be better off if we grew our own food, bought only locally, kept firms small, eschewed modern conveniences like home appliances, went back to using only natural products, expropriated wealthy savers, harassed the capitalistic class until it felt itself unwelcome and vanished. This paradise has a name, and it is Haiti.

    A small quote from Capital Is Nowhere In View, in turn quoted by Ed Driscoll yesterday in one of his excellent pieces.
    When I evoke the Obamabanana Republic, I am not kidding in the least.

  • McQSo you’re wondering why the “recovery” stalled? 

    I don’t wonder at all.  It’s RAAAAACISM!!!  Oh, and greed, because those nasty rich people would rather sit on their money than do the right thing and hire people.

    / sarc

    • You’d have thought that somebody could have predicted that ObamaCare would be the economy killer we know it will be (you ain’t seen NOTHIN’ yet)…
      oh….wait….

      • Oh, come now!  How could ANYBODY have predicted that adding a huge cost and regulatory burden as well as tons of uncertainty to an already struggling economy would harm the economy, ESPECIALLY after we blew through invested $800 billions in stimulus?

        / sarc

  • Folks, let’s get real –

    If there is no political will to repeal the lightbulb ban, what on Earth makes you think that there is going to be the political will to repeal Obama’s core legacy and a major achievement of the Democrat machine?

    We will see the economy collapse into rubble before we’ll EVER see the will to do away with ObamaCare.

    I’d love to see it sent to the dustbin of history, but as far as the centers of power are concerned, it is a done deal.

    • What makes you say that about the light bulb ban?

      • Actually, I think there’s a decent chance that the light bulb ban repeal will be attached to something or other, and used as a bargaining chip by the Democrats to get a slew of other goodies they want.

        The Democrats can then go back to their green base and say, “What you gonna do? Those whackjob Republicans just insisted, and we had to do something. Here, have some more solar and ethanol subsidies.”

        The Republicans will then go back and trumpet to the Tea Party about how they killed the light bulb ban, and expect to be lionized for it. They’ll act like it’s the biggest triumph of this Congress.

        And if that doesn’t make you sad and pessimistic about the ultimate outcome of the debt bomb and the coming meltdown of the welfare state, I don’t know what will.

        • Guys, the light bulb ban was voted against by a large majority…just not the 2/3 required according to the rule it was brought to the floor under.  And that was after Pelosi whipped the snot out of her caucus.
          THEN, just the other day, enforcement was de-funded.
          There is enough reality to be glum about, we don’t need to make it up.

          • I don’t see how that is in conflict with what I said.

            It is indicative of the ineptitude and out-of-touch thinking of the GOP that the bill was ever passed in the first place. (Well, either that, or they colluded with the manufacturers to force consumers to buy higher priced goods – take your pick.)

            If they can’t get definitive action by shaming the Democrats (in both House and Senate – symbolic bills in the House that everyone knows won’t pass the Senate don’t count) when the public is on their side about ten to one, then they sure as heck are not up to getting action on anything serious when the going gets tougher.

            And, to be honest, the whole “defunding enforcement” thing really, really bothers me. I consider that kind of dodge toxic to the relationship between government and the people. I guess it’s better than the alternative of hauling people into court for buying light bulbs, but that doesn’t make it good.

          • It is indicative of the ineptitude and out-of-touch thinking of the GOP that the bill was ever passed in the first place. (Well, either that, or they colluded with the manufacturers to force consumers to buy higher priced goods – take your pick.)

            Agreed, as to the people who passed that stupid law.  But when do past sins become past?

          • “But when do past sins become past?”

            Believe me, I would forgive just about anything these establishment GOP types ever did in the past if they would get serious about what needs to be done now.

            I’m even willing to give Eric Cantor the benefit of the doubt. I’ve always considered him the prototype of the oleoginous establishment Republican. But if he has seen the light and is prepared to hold the line in the debt/spending/taxes debate, I’ll be happy to forgive him for past lapses. I’d like to see a long enough trend line to establish sincerity, of course – say over a couple of years.

            I’m simply saying that I see no evidence that we’ll get enough of those to get some action. The best predictor of their future behavior is their past behavior. Their past sins put the onus on them to show us that they’ve changed. They certainly don’t get a pass for fine words or symbolic votes – we’re way past that, and no one who’s paying attention believes them when they do that anyway.

            They also don’t get their past sins on major issues (Medicare RX, No Child Left Behind, TARP, etc.) forgiven for minor corrections of stupid, stupid minor things they should not have done in the first place. Their most likely motivation on such minor actions is playing political loyalists, and preparing to get back to business as usual. They’ve played that game all their lives, and I think the bulk of them cannot adapt to the “we’ve run out of other people’s money” condition they find themselves in.

          • When a law is repealed, it is understood that the law is bad and that its passage was a mistake, that the enforcement of the law is worse than the problem that was supposed to be resolved by the law (e.g., Prohibition).

            Defunding is, ipso facto, a recognition that the political will to strike a bad and unpopular law is not present. As long as the law remains, the possibility of its resurgence remains. Don’t be surprised if this law is “re-funded” when the Democrats re-take Congress at some future point in time.

            Repeal is a legitimate means of obtaining a “redgress of grievances”. De-funding is a gimmick meant to assuage those who are not paying attention.

  • Oh, and HERE’s a piece of really awesome news – Americans relying on credit for basic necessities.
     
    Yeah, that’s not gonna hurt in the morning.

    • Hey, why not?  We learned from the mortgage crisis that we are all perfectly free to borrow beyond our means, safe in the knowledge that we can claim “predatory lending practices” and wait for Uncle Sugar to either pay off the debt or just flat cancel it (and serve those rich fatcat Wall Street bankers right!).  Call it the National Credit Card Consumer Protection Act of 2012.

      Anyway, people have a RIGHT to basic necessities.  It’s even in the Constitution somewhere.  Not that we need to look to that musty, old, incomprehensible, written-by-a-bunch-of-white-slaveowners document for anything, you understand.  Just saying that it’s in there in case any raaaaacist teabaggers want to dispute the government’s right to promote the general welfare by helping middle class Americans.

      • Ah Doc, if only you were joking.  I can foresee the answer to this bit of news being precisely as you have said:
        “National Credit Card Consumer Protection Act of 2012.”
         
        And of course we shall pay for it off the backs of the ‘rich’, because that is right, and just, and proper and above all, fair.

      • And meanwhile, I will foolishly go on paying my debt off, and trying to live within my means.
         
        That way maybe a Texas grand jury will no bill me when your prediction comes true and I go non-linear.

      • Meanwhile, back at #1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Spanky and the gang have noticed a dramatic improvement in the economy!
         
        Vastly Improved

  • s/ObamaCare/ObamaPelosiCare/g

    • http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1
      In this chart you can see the parabola of job recovery take a little bump down and then become a much flatter slope trend. That little bump is what may be Obamacare’s effect (just a theory) according to Heritage.
      Now it could be the steep initial slope was never going to stay that steep, but that little hiccup followed by a much flatter slope is definitely interesting.
      “a slowdown in the rate of improvement was inevitable.”
      Yes, but how much it slows is very, very important.
      —–
      I’d also like to see another explanation for the sudden downturn in Spring 2010 and the weaker slope after that. That turn around in the graph looks a bit strange. I cannot make another graph with longer time period to see if that’s actually normal, i.e. it happens a lot in recoveries.

  • From reports I’ve read, companies are working personnel more overtime and ineffect have covered 3 million jobs that normally would be needed.  I pushed for a 12 hour day, 7 days week for 6 months once years ago because I was far from home and might as well work as sit in a motel room.  Management bought it since regardless of my hours, my benefits were the same and I received straight time for overtime as a supervisor.  It appears that many companies have now figured this out as well.

    • Well maybe, but even temp hire numbers are down, and when they’re down, it indicates that companies have adjusted to their headcount level and are producing at the level they are comfortable with.