Free Markets, Free People

Obama’s eroding base

A new CNN poll shows that one in four Democrats would prefer the party nominate someone other than Barack Obama for the presidency.   That’s not good territory for an incumbent seeking election to be in.   It also shows a negative trend to the question posed:

A new poll by CNN and ORC International finds that 27 percent of Democrats would like to see their party nominate a candidate other than Barack Obama for president in 2012.

In response to the question, "Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party’s candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?" — 72 percent said they wanted to see Obama renominated.  But 27 percent, slightly more than one in every four, said they wanted to see Democrats nominate a different candidate.  One percent had no opinion.

That’s down from July where slightly less (22%) but still a significant number want another nominee.

Don’t forget now, this is a poll of nothing but Democrats.  And this demonstrates a high level of discontent and disapproval with this president among his own base.  It means, for whatever reason, the bloom is off the rose when it comes to Obama, and while it is probable that if Obama remains the nominee for a second term, a good number of them will reluctantly pull the lever for him, given the alternative.  But, and in cases like this there is always a “but” that keeps campaigns awake at night, what this also demonstrates is a large and widening “enthusiasm gap”.

The new poll is another indication of Democratic unhappiness with the president, but it does not mean Obama will face a challenge in his party’s primaries.  Despite the complaints of a few liberals like Sen. Bernard Sanders, the odds of a Democrat opposing the president appear to be something less than zero.  But the new poll is still a matter of concern to Democrats, because it is yet another indication that there is significant disillusionment with the president within his own party.  Whether those disaffected Democrats will come around to supporting Obama next year is an open question — and perhaps the most worrying of the president’s re-election bid.

So you have any number of disaffected Democrats who have little enthusiasm for a repeat of the previous four years.  Obama no longer excites them (if he ever did – my guess is a significant number of these Dems were Hillary supporters) and they’re less likely than previously to take the time to go to the polls and vote.

When it was candidate Obama, the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort by the left was very effective because the Democratic electorate was wildly enthusiastic about the man.  Of course GOTV efforts cost massive amounts of money – something candidate Obama gathered to himself quite well.  As you might imagine, GOTV efforts with a less enthusiastic electorate cost even more.   And still many are going to choose not to participate. 

I think that the story quoted is likely correct.   Both parties have seen what primary challengers do when introduced in a presidential re-election campaign.  The result is rarely good for the incumbent.   I think Democrats will do everything in their power to avoid that.  However, keep in mind these polls.  They reflect a very disturbing trend for the Obama campaign.   He won on the wild enthusiasm he generated with a vague campaign about “hope and change”, an unpopular lame duck president and a poor choice for an opponent.

The “hope and change” express has derailed, he no longer has Bush to blame and he is stuck, for once, running on his own record – as dismal as it is.

Seeing polls indicating an unenthusiastic and eroding base has to keep him up at night.   Trying to restrike the spark that Obama rode to victory has to keep his campaign up at night.  Methinks both are going to suffer many sleepless nights before next November.


Twitter: @McQandO

14 Responses to Obama’s eroding base

  • On Bad Luck Barry’s selection of a radical labor economist to his econ advisers…

    Yes, because nobody knows more about job creation than Big Labor.
    And the message it sends to business is even worse. Hiring Krueger for the jobs says exactly one thing: Full speed ahead on Obamanomics. There will be no course corrections, there will only be more taxes, more spending, more regulation, more bullying.
    The good news is, if you can call it that, it that there’s no one left who cares enough to listen.
    –Steven Green

    Nobody is listening any more to Bad Luck Barry.
    We all know all he will do now is make it worse. Hubris is a terrible glue.  Obama IS stuck on stupid.

    • But, on the other hand, they are deeply worried that the rules of the game are changing for only the second time in American history and that they are unliked, targeted and to be punished for being successful. The result is not that the private sector is fleeing the US (where would one go?). Nor are entrepreneurs and go-getters shutting down their businesses that they have built from the ground up.

      Instead, what we are witnessing is a sort of shrug, a pause, best summarized millions of times over as something like “I’m hoarding cash, hunkering down, and am going to wait this bad bunch out.”

      Bad-Luck Barry has sowen his seeds. Next week’s speech is just another in a long line of unremarkable speeches that offer no new ideas, except possibly the “infrastructure bank” designed to replace the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “piggy-bank” that used to stuff Democratic coffers (and buy off opponents).

  • Breaking News: Racism Among Democratic Voters at All-Time High — 27% Want a Return to Jim Crow.

    • Lack of overt racism may derail Obama’s quest for re-election.

      • Yet overt, unabashed racism is the ONLY thing keeping Bad Luck Barry’s poll numbers from tanking more than they are.
        But it is APPROVED racism, as blacks continue to preponderantly approve, despite their high unemployment and that the Obami rule AGAINST their polled preferences on issues.

  • McQSeeing polls indicating an unenthusiastic and eroding base has to keep him up at night.   Trying to restrike the spark that Obama rode to victory has to keep his campaign up at night.  Methinks both are going to suffer many sleepless nights before next November.

    And not just them: how will MiniTru try to put lipstick on this pig?  If Jonathan Alter’s recent column is any indication, it will be a combination of “you can’t PROVE he’s that bad!” and “it could be worse!”

    I have to wonder about the cognitive dissonance that goes on with Bad Luck Barry’s supporters.  On the one hand, things are measurably worse than they were when the hated Bush was in office.  Yet, they sold Barry to us (and themselves) as Mr. Hope and Change, and they still cling to the idea that he’s the man for the job.  How can they honestly do this without their heads exploding?

  • Again, two takeaways (and neither one partucularly earth shatteringly clever)

    1) The base is eroding? Really?  We’ll see.  Look at this bunch – they’ll NEVER pull the lever for a Republican.  What he’ll lose will be what was never his base to begin with – those independents and guilt-ridden squish republicans who put him into office. After that, wheather his base stays with him or not becomes basically an irrelevant question.

    2) This is going to be the ugliest campaign in a long time.  Look to Wisconsin, where the entrenched power is kicking, screaming and rioting in any vain attempt to hold on.  This is the true face  of American “progressivism” and you’ll see it applied nationwide. “Nazi” and “racist” will probably be among the mildest charges leveled at Romney or Perry before it is all over. And god knows what violence they’ll try to incite against Bachmann.

  • The important question is what will this 27% do come election day.  There are basically three options:
    1) stay home.
    2) cast a protest vote for someone else (maybe even a Republican)
    3) hold their nose and vote for Obama.
    If a significant amount of these people do option 1 or 2 then Obama is done.  Then again, Obama has over a year to win these people back.

    Obama’s natural base (and race has nothing to do with it).
    This woman needs to be in Cuber for about a year.

    • Wow, just wow.
      I gather the people who provide her with food, water, an apartment, a vehicle, electric lights, internet access, (including whatever nifty device she used to record her rant) should be giving her that stuff for free because, well, she was born.  And by rights I suppose that stuff should be free so she can feel stress free and not a slave to her job.
      Back to thinking….wow.  Where do I sign up for her country, cause man, it sounds cool.  I’m looking forward to that whole not working, everything provided for me thing (I vaguely recall something like it, but I’m not sure, I was too young to really form coherent thought at the time).

    • It gets better, read the comments.
      Unspecified higher power preserve us.