Free Markets, Free People

Democrat voters dispirited? Enthusiasm gap grows

That’s what the latest Gallup poll has concluded.

In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.

45% just won’t get you to the promised land.  And with Democrats you have to believe the numbers may be a bit softer than that.  It’s called whistling past the graveyard.  There may also be a little of the “I don’t want to be thought of as a racist” effect at work here, meaning a portion will claim enthusiasm for the president for fear of being thought to have deserted him because of his race.   And, of course, they’ll likely not show up at the polls.

Comparison?

Democrats’ muted response to voting in 2012 also contrasts with Republicans’ eagerness. Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans, 58%, describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting. That is nearly identical to Republicans’ average level of enthusiasm in 2004 (59%) and higher than it was at most points in 2008.

Result?

Democrats’ net enthusiasm (+1) now trails Republicans’ net enthusiasm (+28) by 27 percentage points. By contrast, Democrats held the advantage on net enthusiasm throughout 2008 — on several occasions, by better than 40-point margins. Democrats occasionally trailed Republicans in net enthusiasm in 2004, but never by as much as is seen today. The current balance of enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats is similar to what Gallup found in the first few months of 2000.

Uh oh.

Look I know it is early and I know the GOP can always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but every poll out there on just about every aspect of the current  electoral picture is exceedingly negative for Democrats and Barack Obama.   And while plenty out there will attempt to wave all this bad news off, the bottom line is while each of these polls is a snapshot, when you put them all together they make an album of trends.  Terms such as “lowest in history” have a  meaning, and while all these polls won’t guarantee an outcome, they sure have been pretty good in pointing toward outcomes in the past.

And right now, they’re looking pretty darn bad for the prez and his party.

~McQ

Twitter: @McQandO

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8 Responses to Democrat voters dispirited? Enthusiasm gap grows

  • The snapshots have been looking bad for a long time.

    If Obama and the Dems had the resources to turn things around, they would have done so 12-18 months ago. They haven’t and they won’t. Going all in for class warfare and racism accusations will shore up the base temporarily but in the longer run will only damage the Obama 2008 brand and alienate independents.

  • About now, the Democrats in Congress are asking, why didn’t we pass the DREAM Act which would supply thousands of new Democratic voters for as far as the eye can see ?  Instead, they went for ObamaCare, that merely institutionalizes the free care that poor Americans were already getting (under the force of law) at emergency rooms around the country.
    They forgot to ask themselves, what is more important .. more voters or healthy voters ?
    Given that so many dead continue to vote in many of our large cities, I would think that the choice would be obvious.

  • You think these numbers just happen to coincide with some Dem rumblings about how we have to be “less democratic” (or suspend elections)?

    What a ko-inky-dink!

    • Oh, Shark, I’m perfectly will to be less Democratic in many places!
       
      The White House, The Senate, The House, as many governorships as we can manage, and a plethora of appointed hack positions thoughout government today.

  • I am conducting an informal poll dealing with this same issue – “Voter Enthusiasm for Obama”
     
    Principle methodology? Obama stickers on cars. In 2007-2009, Obama stickers adorned cars throughout the land. It was common in a parking lot to see two out of every three cars wielding an Obama/Biden sticker on the car. Today, I view cars of the 2007-2009 vintage and try and calculate the stickers that remain. it is rare to see one anywhere but the analysis is incomplete at this time.
     
    Stay tuned for final results.

  • The media and Beltway Repubs have already begun the “Romney, because he’LL appeal to independents and moderate dems” chant. That’s how we ended up with McCain, isn’t it? (And the only reason I voted for that Rino is because he selected Sarah.
    No more Northeastern pols, please. And the lack of a degree in law is, in my opinion, also a plus this time.
    Is Cain a Juris Doc?
    I don’t think so.

    • Cain is looking good, but even Romney will be fine,….with a Tea Party Congress….that’s the key…you guys all out supporting your local Tea Party, right?