Handicapping the 2012 election
Two folks I respect and enjoy reading when it comes to election analysis are Nate Silver and Larry Sabato. Both have a lot of experience, seem to have their heads on pretty straight and explain their methodology and reasoning fairly well. Both are also a rare breed in that they don’t seem to let whatever political biases they have interfere with their analysis.
Recommended reading today from both of them.
Silver talks about how he has come to do his analysis of presidential races. It’s a very interesting read for the political junkie and even for those who are less involved but want some way to do their own analysis of the goings on. Probably the most controversial aspect of his analysis is what he calls the “the ideological positioning of the Republican candidate” (note: obviously, if it was a Republican in the White House, he would be talking about the ideological positioning of the Democratic candidate). As he notes, it’s a bit of an intangible, but I think he has a point. He also has “extreme” ratings for each of the current candidates and explains what that means in the big scheme of things.
Interesting stuff which I’m sure will make for a good discussion.
Sabato, on the other hand, talks about how it is way too early to draw the curtain down on the GOP nominating process, even though (and I’m as guilty as anyone) many of us want to call it “over”. Much of that is just wanting to get the process over with in what seems to be an eternal campaign. But, as he points out, history says “not yet”. The primaries are the crucible and surprises can and do happen.
Anyway, good stuff for political junkies. A couple of sources for some fun discussion. Don’t hesitate to weigh in.