Free Markets, Free People

Islamists tighten grip in Egypt with 2nd round of elections, violence flairs

Well “Arab spring” is going swimmingly in Egypt.  The second round of elections were just completed and guess who has taken even more control?

The Muslim Brotherhood party secured 39 percent of the vote, while the Salafi Al Nour party won 31 percent of the vote in the second stage of Egypt’s landmark post-Mubarak elections, according to unofficial results published on the website of Egypt’s Al-Ahram newspaper on Sunday.

The unofficial results for the second stage of elections for the lower house of the Egyptian parliament also showed that the secular, liberal Wafd party won 22 percent of the vote.

Islamist parties won some 70 percent of the total vote, a similar result to the first stage of elections, which took place on November 28.

Of course this wasn’t supposed to happen this way and apologists for it are left with trying to pretend that the Muslim Brotherhood is a “moderate” organization.  It’s history tells a completely different story.  The classic wolf in sheep’s clothing in this situation.  With over 70% control, the Islamists will easily control any legislative body with very little need to compromise with the secular side of the house.

Meanwhile what had begun as peaceful protests in Tahrir Square have turned violent:

Egyptian security forces fought opponents of army rule in Cairo for a fourth day on Monday and the United States, worried by the violence, urged the generals to respect human rights.

Medical sources said the death toll had risen to 13 since Friday. Hundreds have been wounded and scores detained.

Police and soldiers using batons and teargas drove stone-throwing protesters out of Cairo’s Tahrir Square, hub of the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak in February, overnight.

Hundreds had returned to the square by morning after security forces retreated behind barricades in streets leading to parliament, the cabinet office and the Interior Ministry.

The photos of the violence are shocking.  But they give good evidence of the fact that any “spring like” feeling is gone from this revolution.  It has, as expected, turned toward a military/Islamist takeover as expected and the Egyptian military is now showing its true colors as its powerbase is challenged.  This link from the UK’s Daily Mail contains photos and a video that show the results.   The photo I’ve included is just an example.

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Perhaps now, instead of apologizing for the outcome, those who’ve tried to blind themselves to its reality will face it square on.  Egypt is going to end up worse off than it was before Mubarak was deposed.  That doesn’t mean Mubarak was someone to support, it is simply a statement of fact.  Oppression is likely to be followed by even more oppression.  And, as the picture above demonstrates, one of the greatest losers in this particular mess is likely to be women.

~McQ

Twitter: @McQandO

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44 Responses to Islamists tighten grip in Egypt with 2nd round of elections, violence flairs

  • Oh, don’t be such an alarmist. This is a process of transition. Egypt is going to end up much better, the transition to that point requires involving Islamic parties, is certain to bring protests and the military is going to do what it must to assure as much stability as possible during the transition. It’s good that Mubarak’s gone, it’s good that a wave sweeping out the dictatorial thugs is going through the Arab world. It’s important that the US is on the right side of history this time. This is part of a transition in global politics reflecting the information revolution, weakening of sovereignty (again, expect the practical demise of the central bureaucratic sovereign state by 2050 – it’s already a long way there), and in the Arab world demographics. This is history being made, and if you know history, it doesn’t get made without some conflicts. But it is overall not only good, but inevitable.

    • @scotterb
      “by 2050″

      Way to go out on the limb there…

    • @scotterb Overall it’s just great ain’t it? Yep.
      Havin a nice Christmas are you? good good.

      How does it feel to be proved so wrong in such a short time, I mean, even for you, this has to be damned near a record.

      W R O N G

      • @looker Looker, it’s going exactly as I suspected it to go. I’ve been wrong on many things, but not this one. It’s a straw man to say anyone expected liberals to win elections and all to go smoothly — you don’t transition from a post-Ottoman political culture of authoritarianism to democracy smoothly overnight. The fact you think I’d expect such a thing shows you’ve not been reading what I wrote on the subject. Also, it’s GOOD that the Islamic parties did well, that should be welcomed — they have to be part of the transition with responsibility. You really don’t understand this, do you — to you it’s ‘Islam bad, pro-American good.’ The world doesn’t work that way. That lack of understanding is also why so many of you got Iraq wrong, you don’t transition a culture overnight, especially not via outside force.

        • @scotterb – but, but, it’s Arab Spring. You were optimistic! Now you’re mister don’t be silly, gotta break eggs to make an omelet how could we be so naive, it’s all working just as you foretold.

        • @scotterb Oh, and stick your subtext where the sun don’t shine. It’s fundamentalist Islam we have a problem with. Your straw man smells, change his straw.
          I’d have the same problem if they were implementing a 12th century fundamentalist Christian government too.

        • @scotterb @looker “Post-ottoman” chuckle. That was like 100 years ago dude.

          Let me guess, when the Shia/Sadrists do well in Iraqi elections, that’s bad, because Bush gave Iraq to Iran, right? No nuance there.

          But in Egypt when the radicals win, its good because, uhhhhh, Obama caused it?

        • @Harun @looker The political culture of Saddam, the Saudi Royal Family, Gaddafi, etc. all extends the political culture of the Ottoman era. They are finally breaking out of it. If the Iraqis vote for the Sadrists, then that’s their choice. It’s hubris to think the US is “causing” this or can shape the developments over there. That’s the point you’re missing: you’re acting like somehow the US could act as a colonial power and change things. We tried in Iraq, and showed that we can’t do it — we can overthrow a regime, but can’t remake the culture in our image. In Egypt the people are taking matters into their own hands. Perhaps we could have sided with Mubarak and Gaddafi, but that would have only extended their reign a bit, and assured that we’d be seen as the enemies who supported corrupt dictatorships. Have more faith in markets, globalization and what President Bush noted was the desire for freedom — those things may prove to be more powerful than you realize (even though a lot of you claim to believe in those things).

        • @Harun @looker The political culture of Saddam, the Saudi Royal Family, Gaddafi, etc. all extends the political culture of the Ottoman era. They are finally breaking out of it. If the Iraqis vote for the Sadrists, then that’s their choice. It’s hubris to think the US is “causing” this or can shape the developments over there. That’s the point you’re missing: you’re acting like somehow the US could act as a colonial power and change things. We tried in Iraq, and showed that we can’t do it — we can overthrow a regime, but can’t remake the culture in our image. In Egypt the people are taking matters into their own hands. Perhaps we could have sided with Mubarak and Gaddafi, but that would have only extended their reign a bit, and assured that we’d be seen as the enemies who supported corrupt dictatorships. Have more faith in markets, globalization and what President Bush noted was the desire for freedom — those things may prove to be more powerful than you realize (even though a lot of you claim to believe in those things).

        • @scotterb @looker Juan Cole told us that we lost Iraq to Iran. Now you say its hubris to think we can have any effect. You guys need to have a big meeting and decide what is right.

          p.s. I bet we changed the Iraqi culture far more than you imagine.

        • @scotterb @looker Having faith in markets and freedom does not mean that you assume the state won’t move in and crush them…see the USSR or Utah’s lax liquor laws…

        • Though, I will say, give the Islamists a round in power or two, IF THEY ALLOW ELECTIONS, and they will have less support. But the key is to avoid “one man, one vote, one time”

          I also am pretty optimistic about freedom, but if there is one place that can fumble the ball, it will be the Islamic world.

        • @Harun @looker I don’t think we lost Iraq to Iran, Iraq is Arab and Sistanism is very different than Khomeinism. I think Iraq will go its own way, though with close ties to Iran. We may have “changed” Iraqi culture, but we didn’t reshape it in our image. And I suspect the change is not fundamental — certainly the political squabbles and strength of Islamic parties is much like the rest of the Arab world.

        • @Harun Or at least the Arab world. I think Iran is moving towards real change, and the military in Egypt is not keen to allow Islamic control of the country — and they have the guns (if Iran had not been invaded by Iraq in 1980, I suspect the Khomeinists would not have been able to consolidate power – another one of Saddam’s legendary miscalculations).

        • @scotterb @Harun Yeah, things change when you give daily national policy speeches that mention eradicating other countries.

        • @scotterb @looker “Looker, it’s going exactly as I suspected it to go.”

          You are lying, Scott.

        • @martinmcphillips @scotterb @looker But he IS consistent…

        • @Ragspierre @scotterb @looker There’s that.

        • @martinmcphillips @Ragspierre @scotterb Yeah – a February 3rd sample of going exactly as he expected –
          “If the military understands this (and they probably do, thanks in part to their junior officers who tend to be more sympathetic with the demonstrators) it’s possible they’ll decide to craft a path of change that can shut out the Muslim Brotherhood (or strictly limit its role) and allow growing democratic competition. But the politics of the 20th century won’t work any more, this is a new era built on different demographic, technological and social dynamics.”

          Pretty clear right there even he understood the Bro-hood was something that might need to be shut out to allow democracy to catch hold.
          Today? it’s an expected, good, and necessary part of the process. Just as he suspected it would go, you know?

          A February 4th sample of going exactly as he suspected -
          “By you seem to be really focused on the Muslim Brotherhood. But they probably aren’t going to be the main force after the revolution. This is a revolt of the youth, and it’s driven as much by al jazeera and modernism than anything else. The Egyptian military won’t allow a theocratic state, and the youth would rise up again. This is a new kind of 21st century revolution, I think a lot of people are still caught up in 20th century thinking. The youth are increasingly rejecting Islamic extremism and groups like the Muslim Brotherhood. With half the population in the Arab world under 22, that’s a pretty important fact!”
          OR
          “The Islamic extremists are, like the authoritarians, relics of the 20th Century. Your thinking seems shaped by the state-centric “cold war” kind of thinking that is becoming obsolete. The news of the last decade is that despite terror attacks and even the Iraq war, the publics– again a majority under age 23 — are rejecting the extremist message in overwhelming numbers. With social networks, the internet, and the capacity to both get information and organize, politics is undergoing a fundamental shift.”

          So, what’s the walk away – early on, he thought the Islamists, personified through the Brotherhood were a liability, extremists, reclics doomed to failure by virtue of the many wise and technically savvy 23 year olds running loose in the Arab street; unfettered by the 20th century thinking of us old fuddy duddy conservative types (who called it using the benefit of years of practical observation and history rather than utilizing the wisdom imparted by virtue script scrawled sheepskin and copious amounts of moonpony philosophy).

          Today, WE are foolish to think anyone EVER thought it would go any differently than it went the other day and that the Islamists are a good and necessary part.
          That it will take years and years, and WE should watch and learn.

        • @martinmcphillips @Ragspierre @scotterb Wait wait wait wait wat -

          Did he really say “Have more faith in markets, “?

          Really?

        • @scotterb @looker “…it’s going exactly as I suspected it to go.”

          You’re still repeating this lie? Do you expect to fool anyone at Q&O?

          When people on this website predicted exactly what is happening today, you mocked them as being pessimistic, ignorant, and ideologues.

          Now, you pretend what you previously mocked is what you previously predicted.

        • @looker @martinmcphillips @Ragspierre @scotterb “Did he really say ‘Have more faith in markets, ‘?”

          He makes it up as he goes along, so this brazen contradiction should be no surprise to anyone who knows him.

        • @myweeklycrime @scotterb @looker There was a man once, back in the 90s, who would predict the sex of your planned baby based on various data on the parents and the planned conception date. He took a couple hundred bucks for the service. There were glowing testimonials from happy customers. He was even generous enough to offer a full refund if he got it wrong. I think it said more about the media that no one stopped the f***er and pointed out he was pulling such an obvious con. Prof Erb is the same except he apparently hasn’t worked out how to turn his “gift” into a license to print money.

    • @scotterb Oh, don’t be such an alarmist

      …..Is that your guess for what the soldiers are saying to that woman?

      • @The Shark What about the hundreds of thousands of innocents killed in Iraq, often by US military people? Come on, you gotta be smart enough to realize if Mubarak had tried to stay in power that kind of thing would happen too. It’s the way the planet works, Shark, it’s not all pansies and perfume, there’s a lot of crap that goes on as history unfolds. I am surprised you don’t understand that.

        • @scotterb – You show all the humanity of a mannequin, you know that?

        • @scotterb So now you’re saying what we did in Iraq probably had to be done, if not by us, than by Saddam, or Mubarak, or whatever.

          Nice.

      • @The Shark @scotterb “What about the hundreds of thousands of innocents killed in Iraq, often by US military people?”

        and

        “…there’s a lot of crap that goes on as history unfolds.”

        And Erp is sure doing his best to generate as much crap as humanly possible!

        See what I mean by ‘self-parody’. Nobody does it better…

  • Oh, McQ this prankish chick-stomping phase is just a “growing pain”…and really a good and necessary thing. Egypt is on its way to a new future of social media an’ stuff. This is just exactly what I predicted, and I predict that Egypt will be as modern as any other place in the 25th Century. Watch and see!

    • @Ragspierre It’s because I understand what’s happening and I’m consistent. Watch and learn.

      • @scotterb Oh, you bet! I will stand in awe! (ROTFLMAO…stand in awe).

        We have talked about how you are “consistent”, Erp. Remember? The Northern Star Of Sophists…???

      • @scotterb @Ragspierre I’m consistent.

        Yes, consistently wrong. Normally people don’t boast about that. If we watch will we learn that you have it in you to go ON being consistently wrong?

      • @scotterb @Ragspierre You think that woman thinks this is an “exciting and necessary” development?

        • @The Shark @scotterb @Ragspierre She’s just trying to swim against the current of Scott’s historical history.

          What you see there my lad, is a necessary part of the transition brought about by the information revolution, and a weakening of sovereignty. Why, she’s part of history! and (boys will be boys) you know that can’t happen without some people being hurt and things getting broken. The pain she’s suffering is not only good, but inevitable.
          Mere mortals cannot understand, it’s just not possible to go to a peaceful government. These dictatorships are PRE-PROGRAMMED to go the way of fundamentalist Islam. It will all resolve itself. Sometime. In the future, when things are different! You’ll see!

          Alas, YOU guys are just stupid asshat alarmists and nowhere near as wise and calm and far seeing as Professor Marvel, uh, Professor Scott Erb (acclaimed by the crowned heads of Europe and America).

  • Now, for my go out on a limb prediction – The Egyptian army will round up the Brotherhood, which was illegal under Mubarak anyway, and do unfortunate things to them.

    • “The most sustained crackdown yet is likely a sign that the generals who took power after the February ouster of Hosni Mubarak are confident that the Egyptian public is on its side after two rounds of widely acclaimed parliament elections, that Islamist parties winning the vote will stay out of the fight while pro-democracy protesters become more isolated.

      Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2075683/Egypt-violence-Female-protesters-brutally-beaten-metal-poles-vicious-soldiers.html#ixzz1h19sUjN3

      Unless of course the Brotherhood IS sort of the military, and vice versa…..and the pro democracy people being isolated are actually the pro-democracy forces that sometime in 2050, will rise to take over.

      Nah, I’ll just go back to fundamental Islamic government is necessary and good, it’s easier.

  • The ChiComs seem to be moving to assure “stability” in North Korea.

    Hey, maybe the Israelis need to consider something like that with Egypt…?

    Sauce for goose, etc.

    • @Ragspierre Actually I think at this point it’s safe to predict that the next North Korean government will be predominantly controlled by fundamental Islamiscs. After all, dictatorships are pre-programmed towards fundamental Islam, it’s not anything to be alarmed over, and only people who are like racists worry about such things. It will all work out, you’ll see. I’m optimistic.

  • Are we going to open our doors to the thousands, (maybe more) of Coptic Christians who will now be persecuted and perhaps cleansed?

  • “The Institut d’Egypte, a collection of 192,000 documents first opened in Egypt in the 18th century, burned for 12 hours this weekend. Tragically, protestors alleged that they were attacked by soldiers as they tried to rescue 200 year old manuscripts from the burning library.”

    Ah, more of that prankish Islamist growing pain stuff. Nothing to see here, move on…

    • @Ragspierre Ah, don’t be an alarmist, there were copies of that old crappy infidel cultural stuff laying around in other places. The modern protectors of culture are going to be much wiser about protecting the culture than the guys who created that culture, you’ll see. Watch and learn.

      • @looker Oh, right, looker. What was I thinking?

        Why, I have merely to look to our wise yoots in the Octopi Movement to be filled with an overwhelming sense that all is well, the future secure, and Gaia is in control.

  • As Bernard Lewis pointed out in his book “What Went Wrong?,” Islam’s solutions to the problems of Islam is always more Islam. That’s what you are seeing in Egypt. Seventy percent of the vote goes to the Brotherhood and to the even more extreme faction, which will push the Brotherhood in the direction of harder Islamism. All very predictable, and this will bring on an environment that will suppress the modernizers while directing the youth toward what? Why, more Islam. This is happening because Europe has fallen apart culturally and “modernity” has become thin postmodern gruel. The Egyptian Army maintaining socialism was as modern as it got in Egypt. But at least we had the spectacle of fools everywhere getting wet over the “Arab Spring.” Hight comedy.