Free Markets, Free People

Your predictions

It’s that time of the year again when all prognosticators love to trot out their predictions for the coming year.

What about you?  Have some ideas of what is likely to happen in 2012?

Plenty of thinks to predict.  For instance:

The presidential election – close or landslide?  Which side takes it?  Oh, and who will the GOP nominee be?  Third Party?

What will the make up of Congress be when the electoral dust settles?

What shape the economy will be in?


GDP growth?

Will Fast and Furious finally be Eric Holder’s end?

Then there’s Iraq … what shape will it be in this next year?






How about the EU?

Solve the crisis?



Anything to throw out there on China?

North Korea?

As you can see, plenty to “prognosticate” upon.  Pick your topics from the list or something else altogether and give it a whirl.


Twitter: @McQandO

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119 Responses to Your predictions

  • Using my godlike powers of political science and the acumen granted by my advanced degree and hundreds of hours lecturing fresh-faced undergraduates, here are my predictions:

    The presidential election will be close, but Obama is almost certain to win. His christlike visage will definitely carry the day. Unless something happens to stop that. In which case the Republican candidate might win, maybe big. Have I covered all the bases on this yet?

    As to Congress, all those Tea Party people that I said couldn’t get elected will be unelected, replaced by wise pragmatic moderate leftist Democrats. Though I reserve the right to change that prediction the day after election day, the way I did in 2010.

    The economy will be going great guns under Obama by the end of the year. He’s going to cut spending, the way I predicted back in 2009. I just know it. Unless the nasty Republicans stop him, and make everything much worse and cause America to decline even more than they did under Reagan.

    Unemployment will go up. Or down. Or sideways. Or something, and whatever happens will either be to Obama’s credit or I’ll blame it on the GOP. Or both. Same for GDP growth.

    Fast and Furious? What’s that? Some kind of Nascar thing?

    (I have an opinion on everything, so I have to continue on another post.)

  • Iraq will spiral into violence, just the way I predicted it would back in 2007 when I said that the surge would not work. And it didn’t. If you define “not working” as “failing to meet my impossible standards for working.” Nope, the surge was a complete failure, and no fair bringing up anything I said back then (especially you, Looker), and I did not either just rearrange things in my head so I was right all along, so stop saying that.

    In fact, Iraq will probably become a province of Iran, because those Iraqi Arabs just can’t wait to give up control of their lives to the Persians in Iran, because they have the same religion. Iraq will continue to be the biggest foreign policy disaster in history, no matter what happens there. I decree it.

    Afghanistan will thrive under the enlightened strategy of Obama. Unless something goes wrong. In that case, I’ll dig out my old Iraq essays, and do a search and replace of “Afghanistan” for “Iraq” and come back to explain why I was right all along about it.

  • Egypt, Syria, and Libya are going to become peaceful, open, modernized nations because of Twitter. In fifty years. Oh, you said next year. In that case, umm, anti-Tea-Party, Islamic brotherhood, transition, a small bit of violence, whatever. But nothing I’ve ever said about the region can possibly be considered wrong. So just shut up about what I said when it all started. Just shut up about that.

    In the EU, the euro will definitely survive, and those enlightened Europeans will figure out a way to thrive and prosper. They will show us how a wise, enlightened, leftist state run by intelligent elites is supposed to work, and would work here too if you dense righties would stop opposing Obama. Yes, Merkel has it all together, and she and Sarcozy are so smart they will be presenting a plan any day now that will rescue the Euro and put Europe back on the past to glorious leftist utopia. At least the parts where workers will stil actually do some work. And the fact that many parts have workers that seem to be complete slackers has absolutely nothing to do with the failure of socialist leftism guided by wise elites like me. I decree it, so stop saying that. And stop laughing. Those slacker young people are the world’s future, and, guided by wise pragmatic leftists like me, are going to leave behind the way you dense righties things, with nonsense about honor and responsibility, and stuff, and break a few eggs to build a magnificent omelet paradise.

    • IF Obama is re-elected, there will be a growing movement to bi-bifurcate the United States. At the same time, there will be a growing movement of ex-migration by more independent Americans.

    • @Ott Scerb If Obama is re-elected, I expect gun sales to go up even higher

  • I predict that lefties will mope and complain (because they have no happiness in their hearts or they would not be lefties) but they will still go out in droves and vote for Obama,

    But it won’t be enough and he will be defeated by… by…. by…? I predict Romney will somehow pull it out even though most republicans despise him. He will beat Obama, and will have very few coat tails. Republicans will barely win the senate with a one vote margin. Will pick up only a few seats in the house.

    During this long and boring hellacious campaign year a lot of bad things will happen. I predict that after going up the stock market will have another huge crash about mid year. The Euros will muddle through for a while but, later in the year another major nation will not be able to pay their bills and another crises will ensue.

    Popular culture, on the other hand, has reached it’s lowest dip, and I predict that 2012 will see a revival in interesting popular music, and higher quality television and movies. Bad economics will lead to more dollars being spent on entertainment, but a more discerning public.

  • Presidential race: Obama/Hillary beat Romney/Rubio in one of the most fraud-ridden elections in history.

    Holder gets impeached over Fast and Furious, racial tensions ensue when Obama demogagues it as a racial issue. He’ll spend his 2nd term casting EVERYTHING in racial issues.

    China’s economy goes into the toilet. By years end they’re rolling the tanks out again to keep power, all to embarassed silence from everyone who sh*t their pants over China’s economic “miracle”

    Since Obama is ensconced in the White House, OWS goes the way of Cindy Sheehan and the Anti-War movement, and either goes dark, or more likely gets totally ignored by MSM (until they’re needed to hammer the GOP again)

    However the EU goes, they’ll find a way to blame the Jews.

    • @The Shark There’s no way on God Great Green Creation that Obama would pick Hillary as VP – as SoS she has virtually no access to the President, and the WH has been running most Foreign Policy without State.

      While it would be a smart political move (setting her up for a run after a 2nd Obama term), there’s no way Obama would ever allow someone who could politically overshadow him to be so close to his spotlight.

      • @Scott Jacobs “as SoS she has virtually no access to the President, and the WH has been running most Foreign Policy without State.”

        This is the kind of story that is not on page 1 that will come out after the election…but if Obama doesn’t choose Clinton, won’t she tell all? She can run against Romney in 2016 then.

      • @Scott Jacobs @The Shark There’s no way on God Great Green Creation that Obama would pick Hillary as VP – as SoS she has virtually no access to the President, and the WH has been running most Foreign Policy without State.

        While it would be a smart political move (setting her up for a run after a 2nd Obama term), there’s no way Obama would ever allow someone who could politically overshadow him to be so close to his spotlight

        >>>> If it meant a 2nd term, Baracky would tap W as his running mate. Since it will be his 2nd term and he can bask in the glow of his “legacy” he’d be more than happy to let Hillary take the spotlight while he golfs and vacations.

        • @The Shark See, I think that, while Obama would do almost anything to keep the WH, the one thing he wouldn’t do is risk having to share the spotlight.

          I really don’t think his Ego would allow it.

    • @The Shark I haven’t paid attention to China, but I’d give the other four more than a 90% chance. If Obama actually has any political beliefs, then Hillary has a decent chance of becoming VP because she would definitely to move the US more towards socialism and/or subservience to the UN.

  • Obama wins re-election vs. Romney with a 3rd party candidate hurting the GOP. Obama’s win with less than 50% of the electorate and a divided Congress, means the next 4 years will be very bitter grid-lock.

    The media will suddenly sprout with stories about Obama’s problems in Summer 2013, once the liberal glow of defeating the GOP wears off. Note, if Obama really barely gets in and Dems lose Congress, expect these stories to be pushed back to 2015.

    Iraq will have big, big problems. Obama not personally intervening in SOFA talks will be disastrous, but not noticed by most people, who will continue to blame Bush (and they would be partially correct, but that doesn’t help Iraq or our country.)

    Assad falls.

    Egypt goes Islamist for a time being. Expect fun with Israel.

    Iran keeps on keeping on, and nothing happens in 2012.

    EU keeps having problems, but eventually they print money and bail out the banks.

    China runs into seriousl economic problems, but they will not be as drastic as everyone thinks – still, they will be serious. Expect a devaluation of the RMB unless inflation keeps going crazy in China. (I think there will be a big shock, which cuts inflation, then the devaluation to pump exports back up again.)

    2012 will be Japan’s turn in the bond market’s sights…its insane what they are doing.

    North Korea has a quiet re-building year. Only news will be that it will be discovered that the regime has become the secret owners of the Astros causing Dale some heartbreak, until the vat-grown genetically modified players start appearing.

    Pakistan will have a coup.

    • @Harun Actually, I can’t wait for the “vat-grown genetically modified players”. Maybe then we’d win The Series. Of course, it’ll be as an AL team playing amateur ball, instead of NL real baseball.

  • China’s economic downturn becomes quite public.
    Obama loses. Riots in some of the cities suppressed with 20+ dead. Obama Administration pulls out ever regulatory trick in the final 2 1/2 months. Half dozen officials go to jail.

  • GDP will clock in at 3% growth.

    Unemployment will settle in around 8%, maybe get down to 7.9 or 7.8 via strenuous efforts at the BLS.

    The media will be playing Obama’s Song all year long, day in and day out, hour by hour, until no one can quite believe how successful he has been through all his struggles, even as American has let him down in so many ways.

    The election will be close. I can see a situation where Obama wins the popular vote and loses in the Electoral College. I see him losing Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio this time. Maybe Pennsylvania (but that place never quite comes to its senses). He’ll probably lose Indiana and New Hampshire as well. Could also lose Wisconsin and New Mexico. Most of those contests will be close, such that the Republican candidate won’t be running up the popular vote. But Obama will win big in California and New York and a few other sure thing states. If he loses in New Jersey that would be a very interesting change.

    • If Romney is the Republican nominee he’ll be to the left of Obama by election day, with Obama pretending to be a centrist just as Romney is pretending now to be a conservative. He’ll “repeal” Obamacare by keeping all the “good parts.” It will be classical Republican janitorial socialism.

      As night follows day, if it looks like Obama is going to lose in November there will be violence from one or more different directions. He’ll be quite happy to start a war if he thinks it will help him, and the Republicans will cheer him on.

    • @martinmcphillips Romney is the Bob Dole Redux. The Republican Party has this “stupid streak” when it comes to paying dues. The Republican Establishment has decided that Romney is next up, but he will fair only slightly better than Bob Dole. If he can eek out a win, the Tea party will abandon the Republican Party by the Fall following the inaugural.

  • The presidential election – Close election. If Romney, I predict a close win for Obama, if Perry, Paul or Gingrich, a close loss for Obama. No real Third Party runs, since even a moron remembers Ross giving us Clinton.

    What will the make up of Congress be when the electoral dust settles? R’s will have a net loss a few seats in the House (Adam Kinzinger will end up losing his seat due to utter bullsh*t redistricting in IL, for example [seriously, a guy who’s district use to include Normal, IL would have to now run against f*cking Jesse Jackson Jr? F*ck you, Illinois Democrats.]), but will retain control, and will pick up a bare majority in the Senate of no more than 2 seats.

    What shape the economy will be in – Poor. New Energy policies will hurt both families and employers, and other factors across the globe will bone American exporting. US dollar will have a value somewhere equivalent to toilet paper.

    Unemployment – as reported by the BLS: 9.2% As found in the U6 numbers: 16+%

    GDP growth – a very anemic 2.5%

    Will Fast and Furious finally be Eric Holder’s end? No. However, by June he will be ejected by the Obama administration in an attempt to keep the stain of Holder away from Obama. The velocity at which he is removed will cause his pants to ablate.

    Then there’s Iraq … what shape will it be in this next year? – Pooch Screw. Cluster F*ck. It will make Liberia look like a damned Paradise. Mexico will look safe and stable next to Iraq. Obama will claim it is all Bush’s fault, since he was only following Bush’s timeline for troop withdraw.

    Afghanistan? See Iraq, only without the really good excuse for blaming Bush. Obama might actually have to admit a hand in it, though it will likely fall to some poor General to take the blame and get sh*t-canned.

    Egypt? Can you say “Military Dictatorship” kids? No way the Military ACTUALLY gives up control. Sure, it might not be run by someone actively in the military, but their departure from the ranks will have been extremely recent.

    Syria? You know what we’ve been seeing for the last year? Yeah, more of that. People will still be saying “naughty naughty” while protestors get killed.

    Israel? Still bad-asses, only with a new “Yeah? Well f*ck you too, America” flavor after one too many snubbings and criticisms from the Obama Administration. They will bomb Iran’s reactors, possibly with nukes for that “nuke it from orbit, just to be sure” feel, and also to make sure everyone knows exactly what they would be up against should they decide to attack Israel in response. Someone will anyways, but after another nuke (possibly in a population center – like a capital – or in the middle of nowhere) will decide that on second though, maybe just leaving the Jews alone would be a good idea.

    Iran? See above.

    • How about the EU? Hosed.

      Solve the crisis? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Oh, wait, you were serious… Yeah, it won’t happen.

      Deepen? Warmer…

      Collapse? Bingo.

      Anything to throw out there on China? I, for one, would like to welcome our new Chinese Overlords…

      North Korea? Tubby McJunior will take over for a couple of days, but will then fall ill and die of an acute case of FMJ lead poisoning. Uncle ends up in control.

    • @Scott Jacobs There won’t be any “nukes.” There is now an implicit understanding in place that the first to use “nukes” will be destroyed by all other means.
      If Iran is stupid enough to try to “nuke” Israel, the only Shite imans remaining will be in Iraq.

  • I have a bleak view of the EU surviving as now constituted. I expect a few members to leave if it does not collapse. This is all to the good, IMNHO, as this was a nightmarish critter of bureaucracy from its conception.

    Regardless, the coming year will see several of the more effete states (i.e., France, Italy, etc.) continue galloping to cultural extinction as their hereditary populations simply die out. Russia is well on its way to the same fate, as is Iran.

    China will stumble into a much more free society, with bloody mileposts along the way. This could be very hard on the North Koreans, as the Chinese are one of the few stabilizing influences on their starving masses.

    If it appears Romney is getting the GOP nod, I expect something remarkable to happen, leading to an unexpected Obama challenger. I expect considerable violence in the American streets as Occupy becomes more dominated by less scrupled people and transforms.

    Either the US will make a rebound that will seem like magic to many, or it will continue the Obamic Decline under The One. Even an Obamic Recovery will be an apparent slide.

    The Mid-East will become a nuclear armed camp in the next few years. It will move more uniformly Islamist and become more dangerous across the board as poverty and fertility continue to be hallmarks of nations with huge natural wealth.

    Central and South America will continue the flirtation with socialism/fascism in various guises for the near term.

    Despite a growing body of evidence to the contrary, the Green Movement will continue to influence policy and law in much of the world, simply out of custom and cupidity (since it is a means of amassing wealth and power while contributing nothing).

    Science and technology will make breathtaking advances in human longevity, which could be off-set by a pandemic. But nobody gets out of her alive.

  • Safest prediction EVER: The Cubs will NOT win the World Series in 2012 🙂

    Your 4 sport champions will be:


    • @The Shark “The Cubs will NOT win the World Series in 2012”

      How can you say that, dude? This is their year!!!

    • @The Shark Yeah, the Angels will have untouchable pitching, but they’ll need a little more offense than just Albert Pujols.

      • @DaleFranks Hey Dale, if Morales comes back ok they can have him, Trumbo and Pujols – that’s probably 100 bombs between the three of them minimum

  • Obama wins using fraud and the Perot effect as predicted here almost 3 years ago. Q and O will be out of business thanks to SOPA. The struggle between Cavaliers and Puritans will break into open war for the 5th time in 370 years. We could be saved if an outsider were to try to take advantage of our internal strife since that has been the only thing that has united us throughout our history.

  • The presidential election – close or landslide? Which side takes it? Oh, and who will the GOP nominee be? Third Party?
    Close election, Romney the GOP nominee, potential for Third Party spoiler taking from Romney, Obama loses much of gains
    from 2008 but picks up Arizona as Dems concentrate on southwest. Ohio may go Obama but if it does the margin will be
    very small, perhaps around 15K if that.
    What will the make up of Congress be when the electoral dust settles?
    GOP/Dem 50/50.
    What shape the economy will be in?
    Generally crappy. Bright sectors and areas will be offset slow 1.9% GDP growth.
    8.7% in Nov 2012.
    GDP growth?
    Will Fast and Furious finally be Eric Holder’s end?
    Most likely.
    Then there’s Iraq … what shape will it be in this next year?
    Near civil war.
    See above.
    Military takes over.
    Keeps right on shooting people.
    Only country with cojones to go after Iran’s “peaceful” nuke program.
    See above.
    How about the EU?
    Poorer members leave it while a greater monetary union forged with France, Germany, and
    the remaining well off countries of Northern Europe.
    Solve the crisis?
    Are you kidding?
    Italy goes crash.
    Possible but not in American or Chinese interests.
    Anything to throw out there on China?
    Economic slowdown to something like 3-4% growth; still high but not enough with the population.
    North Korea?
    Gifted Comrade proves he has cojones with limited border incursions.

  • Obama re-elected vs. Mitt Romney (landslide victory for Obama against Gingrich or Paul). If Huntsman is the nominee, narrow victory for Huntsman.

    Republicans keep a very narrow majority in the House, Democrats hold on to the Senate. This will set up a productive bipartisan relationship for the 113th Congress.

    Unemployment down to 7.5%, the economy will appear better (though problems will re-emerge with inflation in 2013)

    Iraq divided between major groups (Kurds run the stable north, Sunni tribes dominate in Sunni triangle, Shi’ite groups in the rest). Divisions between Iraq and Iran become apparent. Afghanistan remains divided, negotiations between the Taliban and the government will yield stability….and corruption.

    Egypt’s army will assure government’s powers very limited, new constitution will eschew Islamic extremism while proclaiming an Islamic Republic.

    Syria’s government will fall, the situation will remain unstable through the year.

    Israel’s government will make a deal with the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, surprising many. Israel will be motivated by fear of what the Arab spring will mean if the Palestinian issue remains.

    Iran will be rocked by opposition protests; the US and EU will wisely watch on the sidelines but not get involved, recognizing that too much “support” for the opposition would give the Iranian government rationale to crackdown. Instead; behind the scenes work will try to create a face saving way for the Guardian Council to give ground but not give up all power.

    The Euro will stabilize as the crisis becomes one of on going adjustments rather than severe alarm. Ultimately a stronger EU will emerge with Franco-German cooperation at the core. Ultimately Britain’s business community will lead the UK into the Eurozone, but not in 2012.

    China will continue to focus on internal problems and inflation, as it adjusts to both the recession and competition within Asia. It will also increase investment in the EU and the US and have a greater stake in those economies. China will pursue an especially close relationship with the EU, which many in the US will see as tantamount to the EU ‘switching sides.’ However, this is just part of the global rebalancing.

    China will dominate North Korea’s new government through covert actions and overt influence/bribery. This will yield stability and North Korea will start a process of transition.

    Also: Maine will pass a referendum legalizing gay marriage; opposition to gay marriage will continue to deteriorate. The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl, with Tom Brady as MVP. In the summer oil prices will rise significantly. By the end of the year the “Arab Spring” will threaten the stability of Saudi Arabia, presenting the Obama Administration with a challenge surpassing the one posed by Egypt’s uprising in 2011.

    • @scotterb Huh…

      I thought you were supposed to know SOME damn thing about politics…being all scienc-ey an’ stuff.

      But…CONTRA all polling…you believe America is a LEFT of center nation.

      Or you entertain that delusion…

      • @Ragspierre Demography and cultural change is on the side of the Democrats. I forgot one other prediction: Occupy will become a force again in the summer, but will use social media and technology to organize and participate in the political process. This could be enough to allow the Democrats to regain the House.

        • @scotterb Yep. Delusional.

          Demography and cultural change are TWO things you won’t see manifest in a few months, idiot.

        • @Ragspierre Yes, they’ve been manifesting themselves for years — 2010 saw a GOP come back, but don’t forget 2006 and 2008. Also note how many fewer voters an off year election draws. Will it be enough for the Democrats in 2012? Ultimately the GOP has to shift its stance on immigration or it could fade. President Bush and John McCain were right in 2007 on the issue, and if the GOP had followed them they’d not be in such a difficult situation.

        • @scotterb Golly. Blinding insight on the “manifesting for years” thingy, Erp…!!!

          Do you even SEE polls? Or do you look at the data and go into “la-la-la” mode with your hands over your ears?

          The GOP is NOT in a difficult position WRT immigration, stupid. Americans AGREE …with say GERMANS…that we HAVE to control our borders. Whatda maroon.

        • @Ragspierre “Control our borders”? LOL! Yes, I see the polls, and I know you are on the losing side of history. That’s especially evident if you look at the opinion of young people — you’re becoming obsolete. Watch and learn.

        • @scotterb Oh, yah. I’m all prepared to be amazed by your brilliance. Happily for our Republic, you’ll prove as right as you were in 2010.

          BTW, lawyers CAN’T be obsolesced. We have it in the deal, see? Moose-college professors…??? About to see a bubble burst there, binky…!!!

        • @Ragspierre Your political views are becoming obsolete, silly. You’ll be the crank pontificating while those around nod politely and roll their eyes when they leave your presence. After all, you can hang on 2010 all you want (and somehow ignore 2008 and 2006 – or polls now that show the Democrats leading the GOP and Obama leading all Republican candidates and with his poll numbers rising). Because you all saw Obama winning back in early 2008, didn’t you?

        • @scotterb Well, yes. I certainly DID see Obama winning. Like watching a train-wreck.

          I’m also talking about polls that gauge attitudes toward government, spending, regulation, etc., etc., etc.

          This is NOT a LEFT leaning nation, regardless of your delusions and YOUR crank pontificating.

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre Occupy will become a force again in the summer

          >>>> As will the Tea Party. I’ll put your squatting hippies and anarchists vs middle Americans up against each other all day long. Those optics = huge win for the Tea Party

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre “You’ll be the crank pontificating while those around nod politely and roll their eyes ”

          man, you must know how that feels eh chuck? Cept I have to say, we’re not so polite to you since you’re obnoxious

        • @The Shark @Ragspierre The tea party is all but dead — they made their mark in 2010, but didn’t have staying power. Not sure if that will be the same with OWS.

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre OWS – all 10 thouand of em nationwide? Really?
          A massively underwhelming, over emphasized, narcissistic movement populated and supplemented by various elements of the homeless and paid to show up, sprinkled liberally (in every sense of the word) with whiny ‘youowemes’ and the opportunistic ‘movement’ leaders earning their street credit.

          Not sure if it has staying power. Wow, bold words, considering it’s already marginalized and dead to mainstream America.

        • @scotterb As much as anything else you’ve stupidly stated in recent weeks, this shows how out of touch you are, Erp.

          The TEA party movement was ACTUAL grass-roots in action, as opposed to the astro-turfing of the Collectivist OccupySTUPID movement.

          I can reconstitute in a matter of days, you boob. And it will.

        • @Ragspierre The tea party was a FOX media creation that dissipated as soon as Fox turned attention elsewhere. It’s hurting the GOP immensely at this point. OWS is a grass roots effort that surprised everyone with how it spread. GOP consultant Frank Luntz says it scares the hell out of him because it’s altered the conversation and made it a mainstream belief that the wealth distribution gap is unjust and wrong. OWS is a sign of the future, the tea party was nostalgia for a fading past.

        • @scotterb Self-parody, thy name is Erp….

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre
          Rags, remember Erb is the one who stated the Democrats would retain the House in 2010 – and then announced to the world, when he returned that he had stated just the opposite. With him he is always right, just ask him!!!

        • @sshiell @Ragspierre You’re fibbing, sshiell. In March 2010 I said I thought the Democrats would retain the House. They didn’t, I said I had been wrong. I just thought it amusing that a March prediction would get compared to McQ’s early November prediction. But I never claimed to have predicted the GOP would take the House, you’re making that up (which doesn’t surprise me).

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre
          As usual you don’t read very well Erb. Read it again – i stated that you said “the Democrats would retain the House in 2010.” I never stated anything about you predicting the GOP would take the house – you would never turn on your Democratic Lords & Masters so blatantly – but you did come back here and claim you had been right all along which is normal for you (Which doesn’t surprise me).

          So go Fuck Yourself!

        • @sshiell @Ragspierre Heh-heh, I caught you in a lie, Sshiell and you’re pathetic last line shows frustration dripping off you. Delightful. Read your post, you said I claimed the opposite, which would have to mean the GOP winning. Consider yourself slammed across the noggin kiddo.

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre
          “you said I claimed the opposite, which would have to mean the GOP winning”
          Which you did – go back and read your own postings there Erb.

          I’ll wait.

        • @scotterb “OWS is a grass roots effort that surprised everyone with how it spread.”

          No. Both those statements are outright lies.

          “… made it a mainstream belief that the wealth distribution gap is unjust and wrong.”

          Which is to trumpet a triumph of Collectivist propaganda. Which tells us all we need to know about you.

        • @sshiell @Ragspierre *chuckle* You know I didn’t say that, otherwise you’d cite it. You need to have the moral integrity to admit your error. But here’s what’s funny – you contradict yourself in your two posts. Above you say “which you did,” but in your post before you say I would never turn on my Democratic “lords and masters,” and that you didn’t say I said the GOP would win.

          Oh, what a tangled web you weave when you are afraid to admit you were wrong. C’mon, when you contradict yourself within two posts, you have to realize its time to simply admit a mistake.

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre

          Still waiting! But now that you have “taken a stand” you will now claim it never happened, just like you claimed you never called the Surge a failure, just like you cliamed . . . Oh well, Erb being Erb is enough!

        • @scotterb @sshiell @Ragspierre As of July last year you were still mumbling about the Republicans picking up 25 seats in the House. That was your “most likely” prediction. Then you went so silent even people like Rags and Sshiell noticed towards election time. You mumbled some stuff without numbers later in September but hadn’t backed off the wonders of what Obama was going to do for us and how the country was drifting away from the conservative style thinking towards positive Obama lead initiatives.
          You get very silent around important events or start paying a great deal of attention to important issues like the meaning of rock songs.

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre What are you, an idiot? Oh yes you are. Don’t confuse not being visible to being dead. While your precious OWS was taking dumps on police cars and squatting on public lands, the Tea Party has been busy organizing and moving to co-opt GOP apparatus from the local levels upward.

          If anything, they’re set to be more effective than before. And again, they’ll be back out in the spring. I welcome your anarchist feces throwers vs decent middle americans any day.

        • @looker @scotterb @sshiell @Ragspierre I take public stands on important events daily on my own blog – and I’m never afraid to admit I’m wrong in those numerous times I am (when you speculate on politics, that’s going to happen). You’re in fantasy land, looker.

        • @sshiell @scotterb @Ragspierre Waiting for what? For you to admit you either lied or made an error? Come on, show some integrity! It’s easy to sit here and say “you said that, you said this.” You can make stuff up. Show, don’t tell.

          Here’s what I said about the surge: “The ‘surge’ did not end the conflict in Iraq, or bring success. It did help stop a civil war, and it creates the possibility of a Nixonian “peace with honor.” We’re not cutting and running, when we leave, we can claim we helped stabilize things. But, of course, Nixon’s peace with honor lasted only two years. In 1975 the North took over South Vietnam completely, and in short order Cambodia fell to the Khmer Rouge.”

        • @scotterb @looker @sshiell Flagrent traffic whoring, right here…on our shew…

        • @scotterb @sshiell @Ragspierre Perhaps, but trying to not read your blog precludes my subjecting myself to your fantasy dissertations on important events daily. Given you can change history there, as has been noted by DocD, I wouldn’t use your blog to reference your opinions on the election in 2010 any more than I would tend to refer to Krugman for advice on running a country

        • @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre LOL! Well, my words on this blog can be edited and blog entries changed, so if you’re going to play that game than nobody has any proof of anything!

        • @scotterb @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre Erb, did you SERIOUSLY just say that your words here at this blog might have been changed in order to make you look like a liar?

          Holy God you are a dishonest pile of crap.

        • @Scott Jacobs @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre Read the thread — looker said I could change my blog, so he won’t believe it. By that logic, this blog could be changed too. For the record, I do not change my blog except to correct typos, and I do not believe anyone here changes my words, in fact I’m certain no one does — my point was how silly Looker was being. I could call you a ‘dishonest pile of crap’ for misreading the thread when it’s pretty clear, but I’ll assume you made an honest mistake of thinking I meant something else.

        • @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre By the way, looker, I know you didn’t mean it that way, but I appreciate being compared to a Nobel prize winner in economics!

        • @scotterb Oh shut your lying, weaselly pile hole, you dishonest jackass.

        • @Scott Jacobs Spoken like a true ninth grader on the playground, Scott. What you write says more about you than about me.

        • @scotterb @Scott
          “Jacobs Spoken like a true ninth grader on the playground, Scott. What you write says more about you than about me.”

          Translation: NeeNerNeeNerNeeeNer

        • @sshiell @Scott You’ve had a few beers tonight, right?

        • @scotterb @sshiell @Ragspierre yeah, they COULD be edited, but they aren’t, unless you’re now deleting and reentering. The old format didn’t support updating by passive commentators, and the hosts have a little more integrity and are more comfortable in their own skins than to run around changing things just to make you look wrong or even make themselves look right. You frequently do such a swell job all by yourself it’s really not necessary.

          And then you crank up the ‘why don’t you just admit it’ crap and ‘the caught you in a lie’ stuff. Seems to be real important to you Chuck, whereas, ya know, it’s all just our opinions. Not that I care if you change, you have at it.

        • @scotterb @sshiell @Scott As for you changing your place, hey, a couple people who played on your playground commented that happened. Now, since they’re stuck with their words here, I doubt they’d feel like they weren’t stuck with their words over on your terrain too. Gotta say, I’m not comfortable you’re much a man of your word when it comes to the net, can’t say about real life, but the two ought to be a close reflection. My opinion. That and $4.00 buys you a fascinating drink at Starbucks.

        • @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre The funny thing is, looker, I’m the one not taking this seriously or bothered by insults. I’m just amused by the frenzied reaction I cause offering an opinion that differs from the norm on this blog. You guys take me so seriously it’s funny. A few of you try to attack, insult and call names over and over, apparently not realizing that such things have no sting because I don’t take you near as seriously as you take me. The responses to me, often full of playground like insults when I’ve just posted a polite opinion, say far more about you than they say about me. You just don’t like opinions different than your own, especially if they seem from the left. It’s not just me, whether it’s Krugman or anyone on the ‘other side’ so many of you are quick with insults and ad hominem, as if you can’t comprehend that disagreement on political matters is OK – it’s what our country is based upon. And that’s the thing — I seem to bother you, but you can’t bother me. I think that’s what really irks you. Perhaps going into 2012 you might want to reflect on that. A lot of you can dish it out but seem hyper sensitive to anything slightly negative I might say. What does that say about you? I am polite and do not hold grudges, yet I can take anything you dish out with good humor. What does that say about me? Have a great 2012!

        • @scotterb @looker @sshiell @Ragspierre
          “The responses to me, often full of playground like insults when I’ve just posted a polite opinion, say far more about you than they say about me.”

          Let me see, not so many days ago some polite fellow called me a neo-Nazi for no good reason. Selective memory, much? Can’t make pie without picking cherries, perhaps?

        • @scotterb @sshiell @Ragspierre What your style says is you’re kinda pompous and fairly insufferable. You like to lecture, you’re smug and condescending, and you have this real underlying need to be ‘right’ all the time in an overbearing way that makes me suspect you have underlaying self esteem issues.

          I gave up being irked by you a long time ago, I only poke at you because you bring out the naughty dog chain jerking little boy in me, and I only jerk your chain because you’re an annoying barky little dog.

          You have a swell new year yourself.

  • Obama loses to Romney after a dirty campaign – voter fraud. Dems lose Senate.
    Holder resigns, Obama implicated in Fast and Furious.
    Media demands unemployment drop to horrible level of Bush era.
    DHS makes us ‘safer’ by getting larger, randomly annoying Americans in other than Airports to ‘keep the terrorists off balance’.
    Maj Nidal Malik Hasan suffers infection, meets Allah, (adios ratbag).
    Police state behavior grows, departments armed like infantry battalions.
    Economy sucks, unemployment at 8+ officially, 14+ in reality, Reporting of 8+ increases towards reality after Democrats lose Congress/White House. Suddenly the government sucks (again) and the Democrats begin campaigning for the mid-term.
    Tea Party radicals a danger to US (according to DHS). Obama loses without grace. rioting & race card playing

    • As Ott said, I also have an opinion on eveyting….
      The EU flounders till Julyish – Greece burns, Italian government collapses, Spanish seperatists in play, EU collapse by year end, central states in Union, current problems thrown to wolves.
      EU sees stronger backlash on Islam. Russia more democratic, late winter/spring violence against Putin’s machinations.
      Arab ‘Spring’ continues, Islamist government in Cairo, Libya, Tunisia year end. Bashar Al-Assad assassinated, country goes Libya II while Islamists secure control. Iraq falls apart, Iran helps it.
      Late year Iran gets gutsy as US indecisive on Middle East turmoil (mr Indecisive MORE indecisive due to election). Israel muddles through, strikes Iranian nuclear facilities just prior election. Arab governments too busy internally to threaten Isreal. Appearances of Islamist coalition forming towards end of the year. Muslim Brotherhood solidifies control. Saudi Arabia continues to try cash to stiffle them.
      Pakistan kicks US out, negotiations to be friends for right amount of cash run into election
      Afghanistan back to 12th century hell, Taliban (our friends) resurgent, no one cares, everybody having sucky time.

      • Chavez dies, Venezuela military takeover, people resist – struggles through US election potential democracy forming.
        Castro a year older, animatronics better, Cuba slide into US influence again.
        China economy on downslide, sabre rattling in South China sea, we find odd allies in old enemies.
        North Korea comes out, US provides another round of aid and negotiation before things detoriate in 2013.

    • @looker Wow, you’re really out of touch with America, aren’t you looker? That reads like a bad plot for a novel that would be rejected by publishers as being so unrealistic as to be silly. But I guess if you’ve got your head tied up in right wing blogs all day, you might fantasize about such things.

      • @scotterb @looker This from a guy who thinks a bunch of anarchists are going to form a winning voting block! TOOO flucking funny!

        I think our Erp has a “time” problem. He thinks “demographics” trump polling. He also just does not understand that “cultural change” just ticks his way. Which is caused by his BLAZING ignorance of history.

        Ah, well…always good for a laugh!

      • @scotterb Hey Professor Monkey boy – I let yours pass, as silly as I thought they were, give me the same courtesy.

        That’s why it’s called a prediction, time has to pass before we judge them, or is this yet another word in the Kings English that you don’t understand the meaning of.

      • @scotterb And yeah, ‘out of touch’ this from a guy who quotes Yoda and Rush songs as having meaning and lives in rural Moosescattset Maine (that was a play on regiional indian place names there Scott, did you get it?)

        • @looker @scotterb Hoy! Rush songs DO have meaning…!!! Neal Peart is the closest thing to an Objectivist you’ll find in popular music. The greatest rock drummer, too.

          (Melt down in 4…3…2…)

        • @Ragspierre @looker I don’t think Carl Palmer is an Objectivist, but he is a better rock drummer. Not to diss Neal, but…

        • @Billy Hollis @looker Naw. Lots of good technical players (i.e., Portnoy), but not nearly as tasty.

        • @Ragspierre @looker I think Peart has said he’s past his Objectivist phase, but Rand did inspire his work on 2112, a great album of that era. I’ve seen both Peart and Palmer live — I think Palmer was the best I’ve seen (that was back in the Asia era).

        • @looker @scotterb Erb likes to quote objectivists, but it is anarchocommunists who have his number,

          We’re so poor we can’t even pay attention
          So what do you want?
          You want to be famous and rich and happy
          But you’re terrified you have nothing to offer this world
          Nothing to say and no way to say it
          But you can say it in three languages
          Quit whining you haven’t done anything wrong because frankly
          You haven’t done much of anything
          Someone’s writing down your mistakes
          Someone’s documenting your downfall

  • My predictions:

    Obama loses the election.

    The economy continues to be depressing.

    Unemployment rises.

    Mergers and takeovers increase.

    The Religion of Peace continues to prove they are anything but.

    Fuel prices rise worldwide.

    Iran pushes unrest and revolution in Iraq.

  • Obama will barely win the election. It will be one of the worst mud slinging contests in history. The MSM, fully in the Obama camp, will make sure that mudslinging dominates over any substantive discussion of issues. The GOP will go with either Romney or Gingrich and Paul will run as a third party. Paul pulls enough independents and libertarians away from the GOP to hand Obama the victory.

    Anti-incumbent sentiment reigns in the congressional elections. GOP loses ground in the house but not enough to lose control. The DNC loses ground in the senate and therefore hands it over to the GOP.
    The result is gridlock as Obama, unable to run again, turns more extreme than he already is.

    The US economy takes on the appearance of Japan’s lost decade. GDP growth will be stagnate while the government runs up huge deficits. Unemployment will go down via a declining workforce participation rate. This will be part of the drag on the economy.

    The OWS turns violent making for a long hot summer. The Democrats will quietly distance themselves from the OWS as it has turned into a political liability.

    Fast and Furious will be forgotten. The election cycle will drown it out as an issue.

    Iraq will start to fall apart via ethnic factions fighting each other. Iran will use proxies to help destabilize Iraq.
    It will be confirmed that Iran has a nuke and the means to deliver it. Nothing will be done.

    The MB will control Egypt. It will pull a page from Iran and use proxies to violently push its anti-Israel agenda.

    There are two possible outcomes for Syria. Either Assad violently locks down the country or he is assassinated/pushed out. The latter would throw Syria into chaos with the result of it turning into a playground for terrorist training.

    The EU successfully kicks the can down the road but at the cost of internal violence. Not a war, just a large number of riots.

    The US declares victory in Afghanistan and leaves. The results make the Vietnam withdraw look orderly.

    NK’s Kim Jung-Un will be a puppet figure for his uncle, Taek. There will be minor clashes but nothing full scale.

    Dan Snyder finally comes to the realization that he is the problem behind the Redskins and sells the team.

  • I predict Ben Nelson will join the Deemocrat exodus.

    (See, anybody looks shiny using the Patented Erp Method…!!!)

  • Ah, Crap! I forgot to predict! Mayan civilzation completely collapses in December…

  • Election – Obama loses by a narrow popular vote margin and a big electoral
    margin. Widespread fraud (95% DEMOCRATIC) will appear.
    Politics. – Hillary will not be on Obama’s ticket as she sees him as a
    sinking ship. After the election (win or lose), Obama will pardon Holder,
    Blago, and anyone else in his administration that has broken the law (it
    will be a long list). No charges filed in Fast and Furious as the dems and
    their willing compatriots in the media will decry it as a racial witch hunt.
    Republicans win the Senate and keeps the House.
    Economy – Unemployment will be about 8.5% with real unemployment above 12%,
    Gas will hit $5 a gallon. Dow Jones will go down to about 11k sometime
    during the year.
    GDP growth will be an anemic 1.5% (give or take .5%)
    Iraq will fall apart and my split into 2 or even 3 regions.
    Afghanistan will get worse and Obama will be talking about moving the troops
    out but wont do it.
    Muslim extremists will solidify rule in Eqypt and Syria.
    Israel will conduct missile strikes (nonnuclear) against Iran to stop their
    production of nukes. The UN will howl and Israel will stand alone against
    EU will split up. Italy and Greece will cause a world wide depression. The
    Euro will become a think of the past.
    China’s economy will stall if not outright collapse.

  • Honor killings will ramp up in the U.S.

    Which, it appears, may have been behind the Christmas Day slaughter in Grapevine, Texas.

    America Islamists will continue pushing on our cultural and legal norms, aided by idiots in the academe.

    America will continue to Balkanize regardless of who wins the election, but it will happen faster under Obama.

    The Supremes will strike down the individual mandate. They will fashion a new doctrine on state immigration law.

    IF a Conservative majority exists, several major regulatory laws will be revisited and sharply scaled back, leaving the states to step up to their own vision of various issues, including environmental, voting integrity, labor relations, and financial/accounting regulation.

    Gov. Walker will not be recalled.

    Several more fascist Obama initiatives will fail very publicly, including a variety of “Green Jobs” boondoggles.

    If Obama is reelected, a growing chorus of Collectivists will warmly approve his assumption of dictatorial powers in the name of “breaking deadlock” during his second term.

    • @Ragspierre “Honor killings will ramp up in the U.S.

      Which, it appears, may have been behind the Christmas Day slaughter in Grapevine, Texas.

      No man, that was work place violenc! Has PC written all over it, they’re being so sensitive, no names, etc and all because announcing the name of the ‘suspect’, like they usually do when it’s “Joe Don James” would be a tip off.

  • Oh, and 2012’s “Person of the Year”: Angela Merkel.

    • @scotterb That’s a good choice, because if she saves the Euro, she gets it, but if she “saves” Germany by pulling out, then she can get it too. And, by the end of 2012 any action she takes may look okay and any bad effects not have happened yet.

  • Obama will lose in ’12 – not becasue of the overpowering stature of the Republican facing him but the lack of spirited followers on the Democratic side. Continued bleeding by scandals like Fast & Furious, Solyndra and assorted other cronyism-type scandals will assist this bleeding of support. Union/Occupy combined violence will spark a national uproar while Obama and the administration tries to distance itself from both after first embracing them, the Republicans will retain the House and gain control of the Senate.

    Unemployment may even reach 8.0% and there will be joy in Mudville when it appears GDP is up to 3.0+% but when the smoke clears the number will be revised down to 1.6% lower as unemployment tumbles once again to 9.0%.

    The closer to the date when ObamaCare takes over the medical helm of the nation, more of the negative aspects of the program will surface. “We’ll know what it says when we pass it” will be a constant reminder of the the reality of the debacle known as ObamaCare reaches new grounds of displeasure among the populace and over 70% will desire its repeal in the polls.

  • (Continued)

    Internationally, the world will be thrown into war and the conflict will again center around Israel. Instability in Iraq/Syria will provide Iran and their surrogates opportunity as their influence grows to almost hegemony status over both. This and Iran’s own Nuclear ambitions, with Egypt’s turn to Islamic fundamentalism,their abrogation of their treaty with israel give Hamas and Hezbollah all the justification they need to start lobbing into israel thousands of rockets. H&H will ramp up this violence to draw Egypt into the conflict. Obama’s “Leading from the Rear” strategy by this time will be shown to be the foreign policy nightmare it is and the US will be forced to watch powerlessly while other nations (FR GE, UK, RU, CH and SA) combine to garner a tentative cease fire, which is in place at the time of the US elections. The price of Gas will exceed $5.00 a gallon and $150 a barrel while the OPC Nations laugh at Obama’s efforts to shore up the problem by emptying the Strategic reserve prior to the elections. Laughing because he will only have to replace that oil – purchased at less than $60 a barrell but will have to be replace at $150 a barrel.

    Obama’s hands off policy will force China to emerge as the real power of the Pacific Rim and over the new Korean leader while at the same time Russia will be exercizing their muscles in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus by pressuring the states in those areas to defer to them.

  • A full list of my predictions is here:

    Some go out on a limb, so it should give you things to throw back at me next year since some of you so love it when I’m wrong about something. Note: I do switch my prediction about the House and say it’ll narrowly go Democratic (here I said the GOP would retain narrow control).

    • @scotterb Personally, I hate it when you are wrong.

      It means you’re posting

      • @Ragspierre @scotterb The good Prof has an awful abuse of the Queen’s English in his first sentence (Romney is a barrier perhaps, but a barrier to what one may ponder) so I predict after later editing his typos he will also edit his predictions for “historical clarity.”

        • @DocD @scotterb Geez, can you imagine being a student (who can actually read) and having to take an exam this boob wrote???

        • @DocD @Ragspierre Thanks for catching the typo – it’s nice to have a personal proofreader, I appreciate your service!

        • @scotterb @DocD @Ragspierre Well you should probably not accuse Romney of baring anything either…

          Bearer! Standard *bearer*!!!

        • @DocD @scotterb A Freudian slip, or a camisole….???

        • @DocD @Ragspierre Sheesh, I better go check out the spot where I discussed the 2nd amendment and the right to bare arms….or arm bears…or something….

        • @scotterb @Ragspierre or something.

        • @DocD @scotterb @Ragspierre

          You can’t make shit like Erp up, can you?!?!

    • @scotterb love it when you’re wrong? No, I love watching you deny you were wrong, that’s much more fun. Seems to matter to you tremendously.

  • ANDREW MALCOLM: What Ben Nelson’s Surrender Means For 2012. “The GOP would have to nominate a large number of Elmer Fudds to blow this one. Holding their own and grabbing four seats gives Republicans a majority in that body, which means the country could have a federal budget for the first time in nearly three years.”

    By that time, it will be closer to four years, right?

    • @Ragspierre

      “which means the country could have a federal budget for the first time in nearly three years.”

      That assumes Obambi has not been re-elected and, if so, his Veto pen has run out of ink!

  • Late-breaking prediction: If Rick Santorum can finish strong in Iowa, he becomes the GOP dark horse. Very attractive to values voters. Solid on economy and defense,. The three prongs of the Republican Party. If he gets momentum in Iowa and keeps things close in New Hampshire, then he has a chance.

  • “It appears that the Obama boomlet may have been overrated. In the Gallup Poll, Obama has dropped back to 44/48. In Rasmussen’s Approval Index, Obama, after a week or so of slightly less gloomy numbers, is back to an ice-cold -18.”

    Can you say “dead cat bounce”, Erp? I KNOW you can…!!!!!


    That pretty much says it all in Syria. Paying attention, Erp…???