Poll: Majority feel Obama changed country for the worse
I continue to hear the left bravely or blindly asserting that Obama’s fine and will pull off re-election with relative ease. I even hear that on the right from some.
My political gut says no. It’ll be close. No one is really that enamored with Mitt Romney. However, in the end, it will be Romney.
Why do I speak with such apparent certainty? Well, as I’ve mentioned in the past, there are certain types of polls I keep an eye on. They could be characterized as “temperature” polls I guess as in taking the temperature of the nation. Direction of the country is one I like to watch. Here’s another for example:
Two-thirds of likely voters say President Obama has kept his 2008 campaign promise to change America — but it’s changed for the worse, according to a sizable majority.
A new poll for The Hill found 56 percent of likely voters believe Obama’s first term has transformed the nation in a negative way, compared to 35 percent who believe the country has changed for the better under his leadership.
The results signal broad voter unease with the direction the nation has taken under Obama’s leadership and present a major challenge for the incumbent Democrat as he seeks reelection this fall.
Two points. One the poll is of “likely voters” which is a much stronger and accurate demographic than “registered voters”. Secondly, the 35% of satisfied likely voters pretty much mirrors the percentage of Democrats in the US. What that says to me is independents are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the president.
That’s not good news for the Obama campaign.
Then there is enthusiasm, something we talk about because it is an intangible that is critical to any election. It is critical to any GOTV effort. Those that are more enthusiastic about the election for whatever reason (love their candidate, don’t like the other candidate, etc.) are more likely to make the effort to vote and be receptive to a GOTV effort.
That too seems to be running against Obama:
Independent of voter opinions about how the country has changed, The Hill Poll found an overwhelming majority of voters — 89 percent — view the choice between Obama and Romney as important in terms of the future impact on the country.
Almost half (47 percent) say they are paying more attention to this year’s election than the 2008 vote. Republicans are generally paying more attention than Democrats — 56 percent to 44 percent — to the 2012 campaign compared to 2008.
The Hill, which conducted the poll, wants you to believe that independents, which they also identify as “centrists”, are pretty evenly split over the two candidates. But their 56/35 finding doesn’t support that assertion.
People are not happy with the current situation in the country (with good reason) and for the most part think 4 years is enough time to change it if a president is capable of doing so. It hasn’t happened. In fact, for at least 14.9% of the working population it has gotten worse (as reflected in the U6 unemployment/underemployment number).
That’s a huge number.
What Obama doesn’t have going for him this time is a ground swell of naiveté that bought into the nebulous “hope and change” mantra. He most likely won’t have the youth turnout he had (enthusiasm down badly). He very likely won’t have the squishy Republican vote (the Peggy Noonan vote) he had last time. The “white guilt” vote has, for the most part, been assuaged. A black president was elected and got his chance. Add those in with his loss of the independent or swing voters, and the margins become very thin.
Obviously the swing states, as usual, will determine the outcome. But even in the swing states, the margins are razor thin (with Romney leading in many), and that, again, is not a good sign for an incumbent four months out.
This particular temperature check seems to bolster the political gut feeling (a collection of such temperature checks and other rumblings here and there) that this is an incumbent in deep trouble and probably doesn’t yet know the extent of it.
When emphasis is turned on to his record, my guess is the numbers get worse … for him.