Free Markets, Free People

Indicators: Obama wins the non-vote, while enthusiasm for re-election remains down

As Politico says, the poll among non-voters is a good news/bad news poll if you want to look at it that way:

Forty-three percent of nonvoters are Obama supporters, the survey found, while 20 percent of the nonvoters support Romney, 18 percent back a third-party candidate and 15 percent are undecided.

How is this good news? Well here’s the claim.  See if you don’t agree the bad news is likely to be the real news here:

“The good news is that there is a treasure chest of voters he doesn’t even have to persuade — they already like him and dislike Mitt Romney. He just needs to unlock the chest and get them out to vote. The bad news is that these people won’t vote because they feel beaten down by empty promises, a bad economy and the negativity of both parties. Obama has lost time — and the key — to open that treasure chest.”

Actually, his poor performance has put the key out of reach.  But no one wants to say that, I suppose.

What this indicates to me is the masses that were motivated to vote the last time aren’t at all motivated this time to turn out for Mr. Hope and Change. 

His real problem though isn’t with non-voters, it’s with real voters, real voters that have supported him and must turn out in similar numbers as last time for him to win.  It would appear many have returned to the non-voting roles.

Netroots Nation, the activist left convention held every year by the Daily Kos may be a reflection of another problem:

“I want to be happy with him,” said Democrat Kristine Vaughan, a 45-year-old school psychologist from Canton, Ohio. “But I am finding that he has succumbed to the corporate influence as much as everyone else. I think he has so much potential to break out of that, but overall he has been a disappointment.”

The sentiment is not unique among the 2,700 people gathered on the first day of this three-day convention. More than a dozen liberals interviewed here indicated some level of frustration with the president, despite widespread praise for his recent decision to support gay marriage and ongoing push to scale back military action in the Middle East.

Of course, Ms. Vaughan –an activist – will turn out and she will vote, but the question is, will she do it enthusiastically?  The answer is likely “no”.  It’s a duty this time.  So what does that say for the non-activist voter that previously voted for Obama?  See above.

Kate Hicks points out:

Those who do still plan to vote for Obama, however, report that they’re less willing to put in the same sort of get-out-the-vote effort that they displayed last time. Indeed, part of Obama’s victory in 2008 stemmed from increasing voter mobilization, and while the die-hards will trudge to the polls in November, they’re less likely to work quite so hard to encourage others to do so, too.

And we all know that Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts are key to winning elections.  Last time Obama had a massive and effective GOTV effort (and the money with which to do it).  This time, not as much money and certainly not as much enthusiasm surrounding the effort.

A final indicator:

A Gallup/USA Today survey released Monday found that 74 percent of Republicans were thinking of the election “quite a lot,” compared with 61 percent of Democrats.

The enthusiasm gap remains and is real.  And it’s not good news for the incumbent President (who yesterday visited Oiho, one of the 57 states).


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19 Responses to Indicators: Obama wins the non-vote, while enthusiasm for re-election remains down

  • A study by the University of Colorado, which has predicted correctly the winner of every presidential race over the last 32 years, is calling this one for Romney with 320 delegates to a paltry 218 delegates for Obama.

    A sea-change election.  Over to you, Erp…

    • You do realize that this model was created after the 2008 election and only retroactively predicts races back to 1980?

      It may be right, but then again, so may a coin toss. It’s not terribly difficult to keep changing variables and weights until every past election result lines up.

      On average, between the predictive market sites and sportsbook sites, the odds are 0ver 60% in favor of an Obama win.

      • Riiiiiiiiight.   No on you know is going to vote for Romney, how will he win, right?

        • “No on you know is going to vote for Romney”

          Actually, virtually everyone I know is going to vote for Romney. They are terribly enthusiastic about it, but I suspect they are more enthusiastic than most Obama voters.

          I live in Republican country.

  • But But!  The non-voters!  They will come for me!   They will rise up with majestic heavenly force and usher me into a second term and I shall reign in glory!

  • “I think he has so much potential to break out of that, but overall he has been a disappointment.”
    Oh please.  These voters have no idea how our government is supposed to work .. at least work legally.

  • I always find these sorts of admissions amusing:
    “I want to be happy with him,” said Democrat Kristine Vaughan, a 45-year-old school psychologist from Canton, Ohio. “But I am finding that he has succumbed to the corporate influence as much as everyone else. I think he has so much potential to break out of that, but overall he has been a disappointment.”
    Obama gave them the big, unlimited government that the left pines for it just turns out not to be all that it was cracked up to be.  Centralizing wealth and power in Washington will work if only you get the right people!  How could Obama not be ‘the right people’?  It is simple.  There are no such people.  No amount of ‘framing’ the issues will change this.  A big, unlimited government is far more likely to be corrupt than benevolent.

  • Yes, it does look grim for the Democrats—I hope it works out, and Obama is re-elected.  If not, then I fear Republicans are so involved social politics (abortion, contraception, and such), instead of economics, that they’ll turn this country into a theocracy.

    • “that they’ll turn this country into a theocracy.”
      oOOOOOOOOOO scarrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.   Yeah, you keep telling yourself that will happen, because there’s no prior history of evangelism in the US at ALL that would have already led to a theocracy if we were so inclined.
      While you’re mumbling that to yourself, be sure and oil up your Leprechaun traps so you can catch one and get his pot of gold.

    • “Interacting” again, I see.
      What a moron.

    • “…turn this country into a theocracy.” You mean like Reagan and GWB were supposed to have done? Oohh the big bad boogie man is coming! I don’t recall GWB being very involved in abortion, contraception, etc… during his eight years.

    • Really? That’s what you fear?

      Good grief …

    • “they’ll turn this country into a theocracy.”
      Just like they did under Reagan, Bush, Bush, etc.
      Don’t you folks ever get tired of the chicken little routine, or are you just too dumb?

  • The best indicator? The silence of the Erb.

    • LOVE THAT…!!!!

    • He’s still all breathless and quantumed out after his capitalist oppressor trip to Puerto Rico.  Probably one too many Mojitos snarffed away from hard laboring peons while he lectured them about the beauties of marxist economic theory.

      • First principles, Clarice. Simplicity. Read Marcus Aurelius. Of each particular thing ask: what is it in itself? What is its nature? What does he do, this man you seek?
        He steals pizza…
        No. That is incidental. What is the first and principal thing he does? What needs does he serve by stealing?
        Anger, social acceptance, and … sexual frustrations, sir…
        No! He covets. That is his nature. And how do we begin to covet, Clarice? Do we seek out things to covet? Make an effort to answer now.
        No. We just…
        No. We begin by coveting what we see every day. Don’t you feel eyes moving over your body, Clarice? And don’t your eyes seek out the things you want?

  • Sixty percent of Milwaukee’s black voters have disappeared.
    Democrats have feared for years that one of the particular challenges of running campaigns in 2012 would be simply locating their voters. The party’s constituencies (young people, immigrants, minorities) tend to be among the most mobile demographic groups. And as NPR speculated this week in an analysis of battleground-state foreclosure figures, the housing crisis will likely only have made things more difficult for Democrats looking for their supporters.
    New data from Milwaukee give an indication of how dire the Democrats’ disappearing-voter problem already is. This spring, the League of Young Voters, which was created to mobilize young minority communities, collaborated with the liberal Wisconsin Voices coalition to dispatch teams of young canvassers. Starting in April, they spent eight weeks knocking on 120,882 doors across 208 of Milwaukee’s 317 wards to raise awareness of the gubernatorial recall election scheduled for June. The doors had one thing in common: the voter file said they were all home to a registered voter whom a commercial data vendor had flagged as likely to be African-American.
    But the voter file represented a fiction, or at least a reality that had rapidly become out of date.