Free Markets, Free People

Indicators: Enthusiasm among critical voters down for Obama

So the question of the week is can the DNC via Obama reignite the “magic” of 2008 in dispirited voters?

Charlie Cook, the dean of Democratic strategists, takes a look at three demographic groups critical to Obama’s 7 point margin of victory in in 2008. While he finds one of the groups, African-Americans, still with Obama in numbers similar to 2008, two other groups are not at all showing the same enthusiasm they had then. They are voters 18-29 and Latinos. Obama leads comfortably in both demographics. However, the question is, will they vote in the numbers necessary to push Obama over the edge.

Cook says it doesn’t appear so.

In each case, the percentage who say they will definitely vote is significantly lower than it is among other demographic groups who view Obama less charitably.

Groups among those who see Obama “less charitably”, as Cook puts it, includes seniors (65 and older):

Voters ages 65 and older favor Romney by a 15-point margin, 54 percent to 39 percent, and 86 percent of those in that oldest cohort say they definitely plan to vote, compared with just 61 percent of those ages 18-29. Romney has a statistically insignificant 1-point edge (46 percent to 45 percent) among those 30 to 49 years of age, but 80 percent of them say they will definitely vote. Among the 50-to-64 age group, Romney leads by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, with 86 percent of that cohort saying they will definitely vote.

Cook believes it is a matter of enthusiasm, or lack thereof:

But the study also found “consistent evidence that President Obama’s 2008 first-time voters are less supportive than other Obama voters, reflecting a decline in enthusiasm among a key voting bloc in the 2012 elections.”

Note, both polls are those of “registered voters”, however, the point is clear – enthusiasm for Obama isn’t at all near the fever pitch it was in 2008 and experts like Cook know that. As he says, there’s “consistent” evidence Obama’s support among those groups has eroded when it comes to enthusiasm. Cook also knows what has to happen for Obama to again grab the edge and win. How critical is the Democratic convention to that?

Very. It is there the spark needs to be lit again, where a message that resonates and energizes the same demographic groups that put him over the line last time.

Will it happen? Well that’s the “big question”.

And behind all these problems isn’t the “war on women”, “race” or “inequality”. It’s the economy. If, in fact, the Democrats concentrate on the diversion of the first three, the likelihood of them reenergizing their voters isn’t high. It may, however, even further energize the other side.

So you may see them tip-toe around mentions of the economy and attempt to push it off on Bush again. They’re already trying out “the Bush recession”, “the Bush economy”, etc. That’s unlikely to impress many (most polls have indicated that voters think, after 3 years, Obama owns the economy now), but it’s about all they have in that arena.

Of the two conventions, the DNC is likely to be the more interesting of the two by a long shot.

Twitter: McQandO
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16 Responses to Indicators: Enthusiasm among critical voters down for Obama

  • War on women – demonstrate you’re against the war on women by wearing your “Sluts Vote!” pin.  Get one now at a DNC headquarters near you.  Show that you respect and support sluts women against those evil Republican bastards by wearing a pin that calls women sluts! Remember your mom was probably a woman!

    And if you DON’T vote for Barack, you’re a racist…probably a RICH racist, who’s not paying their fair share. So don’t be a rich racist, vote for Obama, we may not know how he prays to God when he’s alone, but one thing we DO know about Barack, he’s not…uh… one of those weird Mormons!… he’s one of us!

  • Baracky is going to play base turnout instead of getting independents so expect quite the hate filled pander this week

    • I’m LOVING this progression…
      Compound liar…who lied to bootstrap herself via affirmative action…introduces…
      Compound liar…who lied to foil due process…keynotes the convention to re-nominate…
      Compound liar…who seems so delusional he cannot recount real people in his life.
      Hellava deal…!!!  What a parade.

  • Meanwhile we get “Chicago-style” politics creeping into foreign policy.  This has got to be scaring the shit out most Jewish voters.
    Israeli security officials on Saturday tried to downplay the Pentagon’s decision to significantly scale back its participation in a joint military exercise with Israel next month, but some government officials said the decision came as a response to the growing tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and the Obama administration.

    “This is the Obama administration’s response to the dinner party Netanyahu held in (Mitt) Romney’s honor,” a senior member of the political-security cabinet told Ynet, while another official said the Pentagon’s decision “isn’t boosting deterrence and is not making the Iranians sweat.

    • Israeli Ambassador ‘categorically’ denies DWS (Debbie Weaselwords Shultz) claim he said GOP was ‘dangerous for Israel’

      • Golly-bum…  You mean that cute lil’ thang LIED…?!?!
        See platform, Deemocrat on Israel.
        They are leaving Israel to their own devices.

        • I have to wonder now if Israel will hold off any action until November knowing that starting a war could secure Baracky the election.
          I don’t think we’re going to avoid a struggle with Iran.  I’d prefer it if Mr Useless was on his way to confirmed retirement before that happens.   Iran can talk a good game, but I’m pretty sure the IDF can kick the snot out of Iran’s surrogates on the ground long enough for us to swap out leaders and take the X-Box controllers away from the boy king and Sheriff Joe.  Since Iran couldn’t even get across the Mesopotamian Marshes into Iraq,  any attacks on Israel will come via air (and jackweeds from Gaza with missiles and walking explodidope delivery systems).    Syria can’t be counted on as a forward base now, or even an attacker.  That leaves Egypt, if they can be convinced, Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and whatever Iran has that can theoretically reach Israel.   And since they keep firing those off to demonstrate they have them….I’m thinking they are doing their best Baghdad Bob impressions with all the threats.
          Now Israel, on the other hand, I have every confidence in them being able to put the hurt on some Iranian real estate.

  • If Baracky is on the way out and hostilities break open I’d expect him to find ways to support Iran as best he could. He’s a nasty little Israel hater and I’d expect him to cause as much trouble on the way out as possible.

  • From those messaging mavens at the DNC…

    “Government is the Only Thing We All Belong To”
    —DNC video

    You can kiss my powerful pink ass.
    The new media back-lash has already begun.

  • How does one campaign against a whole slew of psychopaths many of whom educate indoctrinate our ‘yutes’?