Free Markets, Free People

New Pew Poll puts Romney in the lead. WaPo questions poll’s validity

Funny stuff.  All of us out here who have been questioning the accuracy of various presidential polls and being called “poll truthers” (lord help you if you question the establishment or authority) now see a poll that favors the GOP candidate being called into question by none other than the Washington Post.

The Pew Research Center for the Public and the Press released a poll that puts Mitt Romney in the lead for the first time in their polling (Rasmussen also released a poll with Romney in the lead).

The Pew poll keys off the first debate, Romney’s big win and says:

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.

“Likely voters”, as we’ve mentioned in the past, is the key demographic.  Forget registered voters.  Among likely voters, Pew is recording a 12 point swing.  That’s pretty significant.  You can hit the Pew link to go through all the particulars.

So what’s WaPo’s disagreement with the poll? Well they don’t really “disagree” so much as imply there might be a problem with the poll’s makeup (you know, the same thing we “poll truthers” have been talking about for months):

That pesky party ID question: The Pew sample for this poll was 36 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent.  That’s a major shift from the organization’s September poll which was 29 percent Republican, 39 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent.  In the 2010 election, the electorate was 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent, according to exit polling. In 2008, 39 percent of the electorate identified as Democrats while 32 percent said they were Republicans and 29 percent said they were independents.

So in this poll, Pew was R+5.  That’s different than the D+8 they ran in September.  There’s you 12 point shift.  Of course in 2010, they were completely wrong calling the D/R split even.  Republicans ran a historic blow out during that election taking 60 seats in the House.  In 2008, they were probably slightly undercounting self-identified Democrats.  But not this time as Pew points out in their survey.  Enthusiasm among GOP voters is up.  It isn’t up among Democrats.  And that, one supposes, is the Pew justification for plussing the GOP on this poll.

September polls are notoriously inaccurate.  Polling companies, at least those who want to continue to be taken seriously, refine their models as they approach an election.  This poll appears to be an example of that.  As should be obvious to anyone who pays attention, the excitement, support and enthusiasm Obama enjoyed in 2008 doesn’t exist in this election, at least not anywhere to the degree it did then.  That means the ratios have changed.  Whether or not R+5 is the correct weight polls should give the GOP vote remains to be seen, but it certainly makes a lot more sense than D+8, the number we “poll truthers” were questioning all along.

~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Facebook: QandO

Tweet about this on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on Google+Share on TumblrShare on StumbleUponShare on RedditPin on PinterestEmail this to someone

13 Responses to New Pew Poll puts Romney in the lead. WaPo questions poll’s validity

  • Poll dancing, by a bunch of pole cats.

  • I would also hazard a guess that people finally got to see Mitt Romney unfiltered.  That was a huge disappointment for the legacy media that is carrying Obama’s water for him.

    • Some of the media believe their own press about the President, like Andrew Sullivan & Tingles Matthews, for example.

    • I think that’s a big factor. That opportunity to see him unfiltered has all but destroyed the Romney strawman the media had built. So they just resort to doing the “lying and cheating” meme to try to recoup their strawman.

    • Speaking of filters. Listening to the radio yesterday which I rarely do, apparently Ryan has given over 190 interviews since he was picked.  How much have we seen?  How much that portrays Ryan in a good light?

  • The latest meme about Romney’s jump has finally just boiled down to the Obama administration plan for the last 3 years – massive lying, which has confused the public.
     
    Well, I guess they’d understand the concept, they’ve held the patent on it for a while.

  • Obama has talked about Big Bird (which could have a completely different meaning to the American people) and Elmo repeatedly since the debt drubbing.
    He has not mentioned Libya.
    Big Bird is richer than Romney.

  • Even if the poll is bunk, the headline reinforces the idea of Romney momentum. The wind is in his favor. If he didn’t make the sale by now with that debate, he never will.  But how funny is that – suddenly Dems are VERY interested in the partisan splits!

    • “suddenly Dems are VERY interested in the partisan splits!”
       
      Vaaaaast Right Wing Conspiracy three points off the larboard bow!!!!

    • Not only that, shark, they’re falling in love with the electoral college again. Lol …

      • They’re doing what they’ve done as long as I’ve been old enough to pay attention.  Like the rule about notifying employees of defense contractors that they’re going to be laid off 60 days prior to the layoffs.  Crafted by the Democrats, but now, well, it’s not really important we actually follow the letter of the law.
         
        And Hey!  what’s more, if they break the law as a result of government instruction NOT to send the notices, the government will make good on any fines, costs or litigation, out of the tax payers yearly contribution to the Treasury.   Ain’t that special?  Or how about the various congressional/senate nuclear options, the filibuster, etc…
        they are forever predictaly for, or against a rule when it is most convenient for them to be for, or against it.  Their behavior is as certain as sun rise.