Free Markets, Free People

Gallup does some myth busting

What is spin and what is fact out there right now? Well, if I had to guess, we’re in the 80 to 90% factor when talking about spin. Both campaigns are heavily engaged in trying to convince the public that the election is as they say it is.

One of the more persistent bits of spin has been “early voting has heavily favored Obama”.

I’m not sure how those who were tossing that little nugget out there were so sure, but that’s been the story. And obviously, it’s intent was to calm the waters, make it appear that Obama was in control and that his base was enthusiastic and out supporting him at the voting booth.

Except it seems it may have been just that – spin.

Gallup weighs in today with this:

Hmmm.  That doesn’t at all track with the Obama spin does it?  In fact, it’s not even close.   The report says 15% of registered voters have voted.  And at this point, at least according to Gallup, Romney leads 52 to 46.  If true, that points to two problems for the Obama campaign (beside the fact that their claim seems to be hogwash) – 1) enthusiasm and 2) GOTV effort.  Not so hot in either category, huh?

Yes, I know, there are all kinds of things that can be said about this, with “whys” and “wherefores”, caveats and whatever.

However, given this, one thing should be clear – when the Obama campaign again claims they’re leading in early voting, they’ll have to come up with something to counter this, won’t they?

And, speaking of spin, one could argue that perhaps … perhaps … the early voting indicates the possible outcome and it’s percentage.

Heh …


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43 Responses to Gallup does some myth busting

  • You really have to hand it to Obama 2008.  It turned out the vote better than anything in the last 40 years.
    Exactly how a messageless campaign could repeat the same turnout, much less increase turnout even more, is beyond reason.
    Obama2012 met the same phenomenon that America-Online had … you can’t grow forever.  Much like Margaret Thatcher’s line about running out of other people’s money, you will eventually run out of other potential like-minded voters.

    • Messageless…!?!? Why, only yesterday, Obama came out with a NEW 5 point plan!  Improved, with extra stain-removing power!

      • I didn’t think Lightworkers needed five point plans. I thought their very aura solved all our problems.

        Could it be that O’s supporters in 2008 were a tad, uh, hyperbolic about his capabilities? Surely not.

        • I gotta say I am impressed by Romney’s campaign over the last few days.
          They stripped Obama of the “Sandy bounce” he could hope for by playing “disaster daddy”.
          They have also made the Obami play defense in erstwhile red states.
          Well played.

      • Ah, are you sure that wasn’t a five *year* plan?

      • OMG A cabinet level “Department of Business” … coming a week before the election, this looks like more tone deafness.

        • Yes.  In ObamaLand you solve a problem of too much bureaucracy with a WHOLE NEW bureaucracy…!!!
          Problem X: Solution BIGGER GOVERNMENT  Problem A: Solution BIGGER GOVERNMENT

        • Can someone tell me what the difference between commerce and business is? Does this mean the Dept. of Commerce is going out of business(heh)?

  • First of all, early voting is an abomination and needs to be eliminated. Second of all, Obama is toast as long as we show up to vote. And that will destroy the credibility of LOTS of people. CAN’T WAIT!!!

    • I like the invocation of (former?) Jets linebacker, Bart Scott, who made “CAN’T WAIT” famous in January of 2011 during an on-field interview with Sal Palantonio.  


    • Ditto to early voting.   Abomination is a good call.

    • I can imagine a Sunday thru Tuesday voting thing, but this voting that goes on for about a month is positively silly.

  • The Democrat claims of leads in early voting seem to come from looking at the early vote totals in various jurisdictions. As best as I can tell, they then assume they will get some percentage for those jurisdictions based on past percentages of early votes.

    That is, since their data does not include actual votes for each candidate, their model carries certain assumptions about how past voting will correlate with voting in this cycle. Those assumptions may not turn out to be true.  

  • This is going to be huge. In 1980 Reagan won by 9% with a position in the polls the week before much worse than Romney. It is significant that that year the Republicans picked up 12 Senate seats out of 22 possibilities. This year there are 23 Democratic Senators standing.

  • NPR:  “A new National Public Radio poll, which had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51 percent to 44 percent four weeks ago, now has Mitt Romney on top, 48 percent to 47 percent, with the Republican benefiting from his debate performances.”
    Then scroll down some:  ”
    The sample was 35 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican.”
    With D+4 Obama still loses.  If it should be R+1 or R+3 as Gallup has previously shown then there is blowout in the making.

    • I just saw a video from MSNBC, in which Mark Halperin says that no one knows what the result will be on election day because there are just too many variables. Coming from a partisan hack member of the Jurassic Media, it’s awfully close to an admission of expected defeat. Or some wiggle room positioning to maintain a fig leaf of quasi-objectivity. Or both.

      • I see that the curfew on no telling of Obama jokes has now been officially ended, so who knows where this could go.
        It is beginning to get ugly though.  Over on Twitter, there are rumours of Romney “ending Instagram” provoking death threats.

        • “ending Instagram”   I’m tired of the asinine things these people believe, they are almost too dumb to keep breathing on their own.
          No wonder Dems vote for people who seriously think Guam (or any island) could capsize.

        • Heaven forbid that they be without a service that turns their crappy photographs into even crappier photographs.

        • Twitter is stupid and Instagram is Twitter for people who can’t read” — 2 Broke Girls

    Oh!  The humanity…!!!
    I renew my call to create Operation: Get Over It as a humanitarian project.  Friends don’t let friends’ heads explode without containment…

    • Well, I’ll be a good conservative then.  Once their heads explode, we can confiscate their property and give it to the rich people.
      HOW DO THESE PEOPLE SURVIVE daily life?  I mean seriously.

    • I can see I truly AM going to enjoy the insane lamentations and weeping when the Messiah loses.
      It’s the same reason I rooted so hard for the Red Sox to win the World Series, all because I was deathly tired of hearing about the Babe Ruth Curse.   This is the same to me.

    • I just had an idea. Suppose one of those rich conservatives buys MSNBC, and, get this, has it put on fake coverage that Obama was re-elected. Probably have to buy the NYT as well, but that should be enough. Then, every day, they both put out coverage of the second Obama term, while the rest of us go about our business of being adults and getting things done.

      The coverage of Obama can be as fanciful as necessary to keep them calm. While we’re at it, might as well let them report that we’ve reached peace in the Middle East, that Social Security and Medicare are doing great and are in no danger of collapsing, and the Democrats also have a majority in Congress so there will be no threat to their ladyparts.

      Of course, this requires a fairly massive buy-in. If any of us have a relative or friend who is a Lightworker acolyte, we’ll have to smile every time they talk about how wonderful Obama is doing, and agree with them. We’ll have to tell them that we now understand that Romney losing was a good thing.

      The cable companies could help. They would need to automatically turn over to MSNBC whenever President Romney showed up on any other channel.

      It would be like those Star Trek episodes where people are on a holodeck, but they think it’s real life.

      • This is very dark, Billy…
        But it DOES have a lot of potential for helping the Collective over the hump (OK, that is a pun…).
        We could slowly and carefully ween them back to reality.  It would be the very height of compassion…real compassion.  Because I DO actually despair for their sanity (whatever is left) when Pres. Not Optimal is voted out of office.
        Just feed them a little bit of true material via their house organs, so as not to overcome them, every day.  Just bits.  Slowly and carefully, so as to prevent the psychotic break they are all primed for.
        Of course, there would be individuals who had gone to Thailand for a sex holiday or beach cleaning in Patagonia, and would come home without benefit of the previous several days careful conditioning…  Those could be lost to the inevitable.

      • I’d help pay for this, it has to be cheaper than another Obama term.

      • Sounds basically like the plot for the movie “Goodbye Lenin”.  Enjoyable flick.

      • You have an evil mind, Billy Hollis. Put me down for $20. (Hey, interest rates are killing me).

    • “said Edelman, a retired educational administrator.”
      Retired at age 60 from, I would guess, a state or local government job. My deepest sympathies to this former Public Servant. And I mean that sincerely, with all the sarcasm I can muster, from the top of my graying head to my little arthritic tippy toes.
      I am, by the way, proud of the fact that I have not used the language in this comment that I wanted to, which would get me banned  from this and most other civilized sites and set even my rain soaked house afire. Thank you so much, Mr. R., for making my ulcer flare up. I hope to return the favor someday.

      • Sorry for the ill effects, mah brother.  It is just valuable to know there are such people in the world…and they dominate the politics of whole regions of our nation.
        We may, someday, have to do something about that…

        • As I like to remind people, half of the population is below normal. And if you think they are all doing yard work and emptying trash cans you need to get out more.

          • No, you’re right, one is currently Vice President of the United States.

          • Hey, somebody had to pull the tail of the bell-curve.  The Delaware bar exam must be a walk-over.