Free Markets, Free People

The “pause” that could last 20 more years

Even though the “consensus” described in the IPCC report says it won’t. Gee, who to believe – the IPCC who has been badly off the mark since it began reporting or other scientists who actually research the climate, like Prof. Judith Curry from Georgia Tech?

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

Yeah, I’ll go with Prof. Curry if you don’t mind.

My favorite line from the article is one of vast understatement:

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

You think!? They haven’t been close to correct for years. In fact, they can’t even recreate the past with any fidelity. Here’s the reality:

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.

Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave, in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience.

In similar fashion, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades. Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years.

According to Curry and Wyatt, the theory may explain both the warming pause and why the computer models did not forecast it.

It also means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave.

‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt. This is in sharp contrast with the IPCC’s report, which predicts warming of between 0.3 and 0.7C by 2035.

Wyatt added: ‘The stadium wave forecasts that sea ice will recover from its recent minimum.’ The record low seen in 2012, followed by the large increase in 2013, is consistent with the theory, she said.

So now we have a viable theory that doesn’t rely on forced and fudged numbers (or hiding the decline) and has a history of at least 300 years.

I imagine the “chicken little” crowd will ignore it as they ignore all studies that refute or at least question their insistence that man is the cause of any warming going on. After all, if they don’t, if they admit their wrong, how in the world can government use their power of taxation to literally create revenue out of thin air?

Of course they can’t. So they’ll ignore the new science and resort to calling those who are doing it and supporting it “deniers”, demonize them as ignorant neanderthals all the while conspiring to pass laws to relieve you of your money in the name of saving the world.  This isn’t about science.

Just watch.


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14 Responses to The “pause” that could last 20 more years

  • This new report is “noise”, these deniers will say.

  • I know a lot of people, both socially and through business. The range of opinion on climate change is all over the place.
    But I noticed an interesting correlation. The smartest people I know believe that our current client “science” isn’t science at all, and that the anthropogenic climate change claims are at best wildly exaggerated and at worse simply, totally wrong.

  • You two dopes, don’t you know the SCIENCE IS SETTLED!
    All the “experts” told you so!

  • When recorded data lies outside their 95% confidence range, you’ve got a seriously flawed theory – but that won’t stop ’em.  Their error was in predicting things within the time frame we could actually assess.  Had they said the earth was going to burn up by 2075, they’d have gotten away with this confiscation of wealth in the name of ‘science’ – as they may anyhow.  The true believers will never be swayed by such trivialities as empirical data, testing of theories, facts and observation.

    • “Had they said the earth was going to burn up by 2075, they’d have gotten away with this confiscation of wealth in the name of ‘science’”

      That far out would not have been enough to panic the masses into being scared of climate change. The main objective was power and influence, and only a crisis in the near future had a chance of delivering that.

      • And therein lies the strategic quandary for the Warmists.  This administrations line, like for so many other crises / scandals:  “Who you gonna believe – me or you lying eyes?”  Wanna guess who the LIV crowd will rally behind?  Gotta find a bogeyman to blame (or shiny distraction) when things like Fast&Furious, Benghazi, IRS, ACA website catastrophe, etc. begin to get noticed.  “Squirrel!”  So many disasters, so little time…

  • The pause could last another 100 yrs…an eye-wink in geophysical time.
    And it might easily be NOBODY would have ANY idea why.

  • You know what I love the most about these Global Warming posts on Q & O?
    They tend to make our wittle Scotty Erb particularly rabid. And that’s always some fun $h!/, I don’t care who you are…
    He says all sorts of vapid, craptacular nonsense. But the Global Warming stuff really hits a nerve…
    I am going to be glued to the iPad for the next couple of hours waiting for his post.
    Scott-y? Where are you Scotty?

    • He’s resisting posting for awhile since he just stomped his foot and said he was never coming back again, for the 30th time or so.
      No doubt he’s dressing up with his pom-poms to celebrate the victories in Virginia, NYC, and elsewhere.  He will certainly find data to show the “tea party” is irrelevant, reviled by most voters, and a danger to the Republican Party.
      Oh, sorry, Ott.  I’ll let you take it from here.

  • I’ve only commented a couple of times on QandO in close to a decade (though a big lurker and lover of the weekly podcast!).  The last time, I believe, I mentioned that the use of the scientific method had yet to illustrate any credibility in the models used predict even the past, let along to validate the consensus that warming is man-made and will accelerate it into the future.
    Erb put scare/sarcastic quotes around the phrase “scientific method” in a reply and I figured it was useless anymore.

    • Well, it is pretty useless to reply to Scottie. He’s just a troll who happens to be older than the usual teenagers who like trolling. Just like them, nothing gets through to him, and he does it for the attention.
      They are superior to him in one way, though. Most of them know they are trolling. He doesn’t seem to know that’s what he’s doing.

  • No doubt they’ll try to discredit Dr. Curry.  The problem is that she is a true believer, not a skeptic. 
    But the difference is that unlike Hansen, Mann, Jones,, she actually does real scientific investigation, and lets her work form her conclusions.  Not the other way around.  Maybe there’s a glimmer of hope REAL scientists will take back their place and evict the charlatans from their ranks. One can only hope.

  • Money, Power, Societal Control… any questions?