Free Markets, Free People

Is the GOP better off than they think?

Andrew Kohut thinks so:

Tucked away in recent polls—which have documented the extraordinary anger directed at the Republican Party during the shutdown crisis—are measures of clear disappointment with the Democratic Party. The disappointment is substantial, and it raises big questions about the 2014 midterms.

The Republican Party’s favorable ratings fell substantially in most every national survey that uses this yard stick, declining to 28% in the Gallup poll at one point. Yet when the GOP was matched up against the Democrats on key political measures, it did not look so bad.

A mid-October Pew Research national poll found that a plurality regard the Republicans as “better able to deal with the economy” than the Democrats (44%-37%). Independents favored the GOP on the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin in that survey.

The Republicans took most of the blame for the shutdown, yet a growing number see the GOP as “better able to manage the government.” In December 2012, the Democratic Party held a 45%-36% advantage over the GOP as the party Americans viewed as better able to manage the government. By Oct. 15—in the midst of the shutdown and debt crisis—the Democratic lead on this measure disappeared: 42% said the Republican Party is better able to manage the federal government, compared with 39% who named the Democrats.

An early read of voter preferences for the House in 2014 by the Pew Research Center in mid-October had the Democrats with a six-point edge: 49% to 43% among registered voters. In historical terms, this is a relatively modest margin. Six points is the same lead the Democrats had in 2009, a lead that steadily eroded in 2010. The GOP picked up six Senate seats and 63 House seats in that year’s midterm.

The anger over the government shut-down is fading. But at the moment, ObamaCare is the gift that keeps on giving. And, of course, there’s the struggling economy. Neither the economy nor ObamaCare promise to fade into obscurity before the mid-term elections next year. One indicator of how deep the looming trouble is for Democrats can be found in the numbers associated with independent voters:
One clear troubling sign for the Democrats at this early stage is independent voters, who decide most elections. They are evenly divided, according to Pew’s mid-October survey: 43% say that “if the elections for Congress were being held today,” they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, 43% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

The reason there’s hope for good results in 2014 for Republicans rests with the two issues nagging Democrats. Healthcare and the economy. Both are very personal issues, i.e. they are issues that effect all voters. They’re not some issue which voters simply have an opinion about. Both effect their lives, sometimes in dramatic fashion. And those are the very issues Republicans, if they’re smart, will focus on:

The economy and ObamaCare’s inauspicious debut are likely the most powerful drags on the president and in turn on his party. In a September Pew survey, 63% of Americans say the nation’s economic system is no more secure today than it was before the 2008 market crash.

A majority of Americans say their household incomes and jobs still have not recovered from the great recession. But pluralities think that government’s policies have helped large banks, corporations and the rich more than the middle-class, the poor or small businesses.

So maybe it isn’t as bleak for Republicans as some pundits would like to believe. That said, we’ve all watched the GOP manage to screw up all sorts of issues in the past. 2014 is going to take a focused effort to lay out those 2 issues for the pubic in clear fashion and with clear and appealing alternatives.

I’ll be interested to see if they can actually do that.

~McQ

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44 Responses to Is the GOP better off than they think?

  • FAIL
    between the free sh-t coalition and the walking uteruses who will fall for the endless WAR ON WIMMEN line, it balances out.

  • At the moment I’m a little concerned my “Republican” representatives are going to decide that it’s a great time to grant amnesty to 11 million illegals.

    • And they wonder why that troublesome Tea Party won’t just go away and leave them alone….

      • It will be interesting to see what they have to say about pre-1967 borders for Israel AND Obamugabe rescinding the sanctions on Iran.
         
        Things sure are piling up.

      • Well, the Tea Party gives a few $$million to the Republican candidates, but Corporate America gives $$HUNDREDS of $$millions.

    • With almost a million added to the “not working, discouraged” ranks last month, why would anybody want to legalized undocumented/illegal/illegitimate immigrants now ?
      Likewise, the Congressional Black Caucus must be doing some real fancy dancing to hold any sort of amnesty position that isn’t directly couple to a “society of free sh*t.”

      • For the Democrats – voters.
        For Business – cheap labor (With the caveat they won’t be able to say there are jobs Americans won’t take for those wages…but that’s what they mean).
        For the Ruling Class Republicans – I’m guessing they plan on eating the table scraps the Dems throw them as rewards.
         
        Don’t be mislead, we’re likely to be betrayed, again.

      • The unemployed used to be a vote for the opposition party, but now that many find ways to survive without work, they prefer to vote for the party that will keep their bennies flowing.  This is how Obama won an election even though the economy sucked.

  • The country is more rational than some of the Eeyores would seem happy (!?) to think.
     
    Yes, yes, we DO have single wimmins voting with their lady parts, and we DO have people who vote for their hand-outs.
     
    But things…and people…DO also change, and people DO learn.

    • Child tax credit increase makes sense because it will also help single mothers.

    • I don’t really see that Rags.  Sure the stupid party is likely to pick up a little steam but there will be no big turnaround.  We are in
      for many decades of Euro style decline. I am looking for somewhere else to retire to.
      .
       

  • The GOP’s biggest problem is the reflexively negative opinion people have been trained to have.  Much of which is reinforced by media suck ups like McCain and Christy. 

    • I should add its nearly all emotion.  Hard to fight but even harder to fight when you look like you feel guilty about your positions which is enhanced by denunciations from the supposed inside. 

    • Yeah. A product of Dem control of the media and education.

  • After the 2014 elections, the GOP may look a hell of a lot better, when full scale civil war breaks out in the ranks of the Democrats.

    • Especially as the 2016 presidential nomination race heats up. The bench is thin, and if Hillary fails to gain much traction (which I think more likely than not), then there a couple of dozen dwarves who think they ought to be president. The resulting cat fight out to be fun to watch.
       
       
      Plus, most of them (Schumer, Cuomo, Biden, O’Malley, etc.) have less charm than cold, moldy pancakes with no syrup. Obama had the same problem, but everyone allowed themselves to be deceived because they craved “making history” so much. Is the entire media gullible enough to do it again for someone else? I doubt it. Sure, some of those media types are left of Bernie Sanders, but it only takes a minority to expose the Chauncey Gardiner effect.

      • Don’t forget Collectivist scold and current dah-ling Fauxahauntus Lyin’ Lizzie Warren.

      • “cold, moldy pancakes with no syrup”
         
        Wow….THAT much charm?  You sure?
         
        I was thinking poison mushrooms frosted with cow pie and garnished with buzzard guts.
         
        You think Joe B is one of the dwarves maybe?

        • Joe B thinks he’s the tallest dwarf. His rude introduction to reality will come when he finds out the Dem money people are not interested in supporting a 71-year-old plagiarist gaffe machine who also carries every piece of bad baggage left by Obama.

          • But…tell the truth…wouldn’t you LOVE to have the Polident and booze contracts for Biden’s keeping…???

      • I would be shocked if they ran anything but a female or minority candidate with a coddled but mostly non-existent career.  Since the current one is getting away with just about anything.

  • “The newly released poll shows that 41 percent view Obama in a positive light — down from 55 percent after his reelection win, in December. Meanwhile, a majority — 53 percent — now disapprove of him. Obama’s image is also underwater on a number of issues — most notably the economy (65 percent disapprove), health care (59 percent) and even immigration policy (60 percent). All three are new highs for Obama’s presidency.”
    —WaPo

    Naturally. People (those of us among the sane) really hate being lied to.
     

  • That means that, as the HealthCare.gov team ticks items off its “punch list,” its also adding new ones that need to be addressed.

    … I once worked on a medical device project, a blood analyzer. When we started keeping track of the bugs (categorized from 0 to 5), we had about 30 bugs.

    Before long, it had exploded to over 300. To get management off our backs, we cleared up about 130 of the 0 (cosmetic) and 1 (easy) level bugs. It at least made it look like we weren’t being swallowed.

    I project that this is where healthcare.gov is about now. The bad news is that there are 170+ level 1 (easy) to level 5 (user fatal) bugs still out there to fix.  Sure enough, today …

    In a conference call with reporters, Zeints said progress this week has been marred by roadblocks. He described HealthCare.gov as being “a long way from where it needs to be.”
     

    • That seems typical. You have a database of sorts of “difficulties” you track, and you resolve a bunch of easy to resolve ones to improve metrics and get managment to calm down. The reamining “difficulties” tend to be the difficult ones.

      I actually do that to myself with respect to home projects, writing a list and making myself feel good by knocking out a bunch of easy ones . . .

  • Doesn’t the employeer mandate kick in in 2014 before the election?

    The fundamental problem the Democrats face is that their ideology is shit, as is their policies. Unsustainable ideas like social security and medicare were at least able to hang on for multiple decades, but Obamacare has a short half life. It is hard to blame others when your program blows up at start up.

    • According to an Affordable Care Act timetable established by administration officials, early next October insurance companies will announce their new menu of health care plans for the ACA marketplaces — plans that may be more varied and numerous than those offered this year, but that almost certainly will come with higher prices.
      The likely price hikes will hit the individual and small-business insurance markets only weeks before Election Day on Nov. 4, 2014.
      “What genius came up with that timetable?” asked one key Democrat, who declined to be quoted by name because he is involved in private White House talks.

      This is going to be problematic

  • In about 10 months, the Dem’s will  throw out a couple hundred $$billions worth of taxpayer funded/printing press graft and the parasites and whores will jump on it.
    Supposedly, the Repubs got kicked out in 2006 for the Abramson deals and the weak economy. Is America so stupid as to miss the comparison? Well, yes.

  • The President has directed his team to consider some administrative solutions to fix the problem, to “address some of those gaps.”
    The problem with the President’s public statement is that he has now frozen the individual insurance market in place until he announces his new solutions. If you are one of the 8-10 million Americans with a canceled insurance policy, President Obama just created an enormous incentive for you to hold off on buying a new policy, to wait for the Administration to offer you a new solution.
    Had they announced a new solution today, they would not have created this problem. The disincentive to buy a new plan comes from offering hope of a better outcome with no specificity or timeframe.
    This new disincentive to buy insurance applies nationwide and is independent of the broken federal exchange website. I expect states running their own exchanges like California and Colorado, Minnesota and Maryland, DC, New York, and Connecticut, will see their new enrollments now drop as those with canceled policies wait for the President’s next move. States participating in the federal exchange won’t see any drop because the broken website is already preventing signups. Still, even in those states the President has created a new reason not to buy insurance on the exchange when it eventually does work, at least until he announces his new policy.
    http://keithhennessey.com/2013/11/08/individual-market-freeze/
     
    I am just LOVING this…!!!
     

    • Its my understanding that you cannot turn on a dime in the insurance market. So, politicians who want to make quick fixes will be in trouble…expect a bailout of insurers in late 2014.

      • The insurance companies will be little involved.
        Obama plans “administrative fixes”…which are further violations of law…because they are totally under his control.
        He is such a dummy when it comes to matters of actual human nature, he still believes people will be lining up for the CURRENT ObamaDoggle, after signaling there is a new and improved ObamaDoggle just over the horizon.

  • “We hold that the plaintiffs — the business owners and their companies — may challenge the mandate. We further hold that compelling them to cover those services substantially burdens their religious-exercise rights. Under RFRA the government must justify the burden under the standard of strict scrutiny. So far it has not done so, and we doubt that it can.”
    —Seventh Circuit

    Oh, dear. Sandra FLUCK and other Ivy League vaginas hardest hit.
    Ummm… Wait… “Most impacted…”?
    No, that’s no good, either…

     

  • By-the-by…
    A happy Veterans’ Day to all of you guys and gals who served.
    And happy anniversary to the Jar Heads from an old ground pounder.  (I was actually an air thrasher, but, hey…)