The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.12 in June, from May’s 0.21.
That’s today’s big number. Exciting, huh?
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The China-US sorpasso is looming. I do not mean the much-exaggerated moment when China’s GDP will overtake America’s GDP — which may not happen in the lifetime of anybody reading this blog post — as China slows to more pedestrian growth rates (an objective of premier Li Keqiang.)
The sorpasso may instead be the ominous moment when China’s debt ratios overtake the arch-debtor itself.
I had presumed that this inflection point was still a very long way off, but a new report from Stephen Green at Standard Chartered argues that China’s aggregate debt level has reached 251 per cent of GDP, as of June.