Free Markets, Free People

“Global Warming” – one of the biggest scientific scandals of our time? (update)

That’s what Christopher Booker contends:

Of much more serious significance, however, is the way this wholesale manipulation of the official temperature record – for reasons GHCN and Giss have never plausibly explained – has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known. This really does begin to look like one of the greatest scientific scandals of all time.

The manipulation of data (a nice way of saying changing the numbers to fit the premise) is the scandal.

Proof?

Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

This was only the latest of many examples of a practice long recognised by expert observers around the world – one that raises an ever larger question mark over the entire official surface-temperature record.

Yeah, yeah, say the alarmists.  Three whole weather stations.  Get real!

Okay:

Following my last article, Homewood checked a swathe of other South American weather stations around the original three. In each case he found the same suspicious one-way “adjustments”. First these were made by the US government’s Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). They were then amplified by two of the main official surface records, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Giss) and the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), which use the warming trends to estimate temperatures across the vast regions of the Earth where no measurements are taken. Yet these are the very records on which scientists and politicians rely for their belief in “global warming”.

Homewood has now turned his attention to the weather stations across much of the Arctic, between Canada (51 degrees W) and the heart of Siberia (87 degrees E). Again, in nearly every case, the same one-way adjustments have been made, to show warming up to 1 degree C or more higher than was indicated by the data that was actually recorded. This has surprised no one more than Traust Jonsson, who was long in charge of climate research for the Iceland met office (and with whom Homewood has been in touch). Jonsson was amazed to see how the new version completely “disappears” Iceland’s “sea ice years” around 1970, when a period of extreme cooling almost devastated his country’s economy.

And, of course, if one needs more proof, they need only look at the predictions gone horribly wrong on all the computer simulations which were based on these unscientific and fully fudged numbers.  But you have to admire the audacity of those who will fudge numbers to match a “theory” when reality (ie Iceland) wasn’t anything like they pretend.  Garbage in, garbage out.

This is something the scientific community needs to confront and confront now – if it hopes to retain a shred of credibility and integrity.  This sort of agenda driven political manipulation is both unacceptable and unscientific.

Here’s Dave Barton disputing someone who contends Booker is wrong.  He puts a number to the difference:

Christopher Booker thinks NOAA is distorting global land temperature data to inflate reported global warming, and fan the flames of climate alarmism.

Dr. Kevin Cowtan contends Booker is wrong. Dr. Cowtan trusts that NOAA’s adjustments are justified and correct, and he also says they are too minor to be questionable. “Why would they do that?” he asks at the end of his video, meaning why would anyone commit fraud for an inconsequential difference in the result?

I don’t know with certainty whether or not NOAA’s adjustments are all justified and correct, but I found Dr. Cowtan’s argument unpersuasive, for two reasons.

The first reason is that he’s assuming that fraudulent intent is the only possible explanation for biased results, but it isn’t. If the results are biased to exaggerate warming, it could also be due to confirmation bias or other error, by people with the best of intentions.

However, Dr. Cowtan’s argument also depends on the adjustments being inconsequential, and they are not. I digitized the endpoints of one of Dr. Cowtan’s graphs using WebPlotDigitizerand found that his own analysis proves NOAA’s adjustments are far from inconsequential. By comparing the adjusted and unadjusted versions of Dr. Cowtan’s graphs of globally averaged land surface temperatures, I found that NOAA’s adjustments increased the reported warming by 35%.

35% is not inconsequential.

No.  35% is not “inconsequential”.

 

~McQ

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22 Responses to “Global Warming” – one of the biggest scientific scandals of our time? (update)

  • “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”

    That was VERY charitable. I would have said, “How some scientific boobs are being made tools by FRAUDULENT data intended to foster a dangerous myth”.

    But I’m kinda hard.

  • When you look at the model predicted agw trends, there were literally dozens of model that cut a wide swath. Having previously cherried picked the ‘scariest’ scenarios or at best taking an average, when comparisons are called into question in hindsight, they now cherry pick the most conservative model predictions to minimize the discrepancy between model and actual (a qualified actual). So if the model predictions are being defended, you have to go back to the predictions that went into the memory hole to make your point.

  • The wholesale fraud in surface temp data reporting just makes the sat data all the more important.

  • “…the vast regions of the Earth where no measurements are taken.”

    It was, at best, Demi-Global warming.

    • Those measurements were taken, but many of the yurts storing the skins which they were written upon were destroyed by Mongol climate change deniers when Ariq Boke and Kublai Khan fought.
      And then there were the temperature measures taken by the Hussites, but alas, the wagon lagers were overrun by radical Christians climate change deniers and torched.
      Mayans had them, wiped out by the drought, and tidal waves brought about by the rich climate deniers introduction of cattle domestication in Europe, Africa and Western Asia.

      Same story over and over, the deniers destroyed the data in some devious fashion, forcing us to take the measures from a single tree on the Yamal peninsula in Siberia.

      I should note these actual measures were all done in Fahrenheit of course because Anders Celsius hadn’t been born yet.

  • This isn’t news to me. Watts Up With That has been documenting this for years. But if this is starting to get into the media, it’s going to be interesting. There’s no way this doesn’t look like data fudging to John Q. Public, no matter what scientific justification the warmists deploy to explain this. Which, frankly, I’ve always thought didn’t explain the statistical distributions of the “corrections” anyhow; those who have looked into this have found simply absurd levels of correction that favor warming. If the data is that bad in the first place it arguably isn’t useful for this purpose anyhow, which in fact may simply be the reality.

    • There’s a reason schools have been churning out cabbages devoid of initiative and critical thinking skills. They can tell them up is down and down is up and they’ll either embraces it or go silent with their deviant suspicions.

  • Yo! Erp!

    You feelin’ the “punked” about now…???

    • Erpie is a political “scientist”. Numbers are only there in the service of politics, scientists are there to ensure the service is what the customer (politician) demands. You know that Erpie can find positives for Democrats or Obama in polls that look bad to any rational person. Likewise he’ll have no problem in having temperature gradients being inverted if the narrative is maintained. Post-modern Erpie loves the post-normal sciency.

      • I do gots to wonder if…sometimes…the ground shifts a lil’ bit even under his feet, and he wonders.

        Or does it all come squirting out sideways in the form of magenta caterpillars with naughty librarian glasses, or some sort of screaming meme.

    • Erb is still practicing his hand-waving…by fapping to “School of Hard Knockers 2: School-A-Broad.”

      • Wicked funny. It does paint a picture…that with any luck I can expunge before lunch…

  • A few years back someone linked to a Michigan State University study where it all looked pretty kosher – until one particular recording of more than 600 degrees was highlighted. Kinda lifted the ‘average’ a bit. Certain that’s long gone down the memory hole now…

  • If this is true, it’s actionable………as in mob action.

  • Control— yes, of course, the statists want control. But they also NEEEED whatever “Disaster!” / “Emergency!!” / “Fix the Hyper-Warmenating!!!!” taxes they can get their paws on. It’s becoming clearer and clearer that the global economy is only one failed-state’s bank-run away from imploding.

    [See also the Breitbart article about the FCC Net Neutrality act easing the way for Our Benevolent Government “… to extract billions in new taxes from consumers…”]
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/02/09/republican-fcc-member-warns-net-neutrality-is-not-neutral/

    Everyone is desperate, truly DESPERATE, to vacuum up the last of the non-hypothecated / multiply-pledged money in the global system. Remember: the FDIC and other “deposit insurance” programs are able to (and are only meant to) cover losses due to the failure of just a few random mismanaged banks at any given time. They don’t have the funds to cover a system-wide wipeout. If your bank has “exposure” to those international mega-funds and the dominoes finally fall, your bank will be out that money. Gone. Period. And YOU will take the haircut. (The Bank of BeautyRest is looking better and better all the time…)

    • There are two republicans on the board, its a requirement. They are both Obama appointees.
      It’s a Trap!

      I would suspect some of that is not true or immediately obvious and they want people to froth in opposition and be shown wrong with some of their claims. Whether they will be shown wrong in the end will be a different story. But it seems things have gotten to the point something is good to do if it cause the right to get their panties in a bunch. And they’re working that angle.

  • Awwww come on guys, I can remember in high school physics we’d regularly fudge the results of tests when they didn’t meet the numbers we needed or expected on an experiment.

    It’s the same, we all do it, it’s like Brian Williams.
    My high school physics story here happens to be truth truth and not a misremembory, but we shouldn’t get all excited over some data manipulation!
    It’s done for a good cause you see and that’s what counts.
    If we were misremembering for evil right wing reasons it would be wrong and, well, evil,
    but if we fudge data or misremember for ‘left’ right reasons like government protecting us or redistributing our national ill gotten wealth then it’s all okay!

    • Wow. In my science labs, I just recorded what I did and what happened, and made conclusions based on what had happened.

      Whew! I was just blind, stupid lucky I made the grades I did.

      • See, now if I was going to misremember that class, I’d do it with wild stories of ending up in the sack with the teacher, Legs Harned

        Odd, seems to mean a lot less story wise when I think she’s probably about 67 now 🙂

  • Global warming looks like the gangster Left’s biggest shakedown racket ever.

    By comparison the Sharpton gang racial shakedowns look like small beer, along with the political shakedowns over homophobia, Islamaphobia, and rape culture.

    • Watermelons.

      If we accept, for the sake of argument, the alarmist premise that human industry has a significant influence on climate and that “climate change” poses catastrophic danger, symbolic measures like using canvas shopping bags do nothing to avert catastrophe. Even dramatic measures like banning coal, stymieing drilling, and other forms of economic suicide won’t matter, because only the West will be foolish enough to engage in such economic suicide. The rest of the world (most of the countries which opposed the West during the height of the cold war) will continue to do as they please, belching out emissions at greater levels. They’ll simply laugh as they move forward while the greens hobble the West, like good Marxist operatives.

      Few greens will follow their premise to its logical conclusion and admit that only worldwide rollback of the industrial/tech revolutions could possibly curb CO2 enough to matter, at which point famine takes out a good portion of the global population and the majority of the survivors live in squalor, without modern technology. The cure would be worse than the purported disease. And, while there are a few greens sociopath enough to want massive human death, I suspect most politicians expect to use the alarmist hype for less ambitious goals (short-term political/economic plunder, long-term undermining of capitalism), thinking they will be able to control the direction of the movement once it has served their purposes. They lack the capacity to learn from history. Their ilk will be the next wave to go to the guillotine.

      But I doubt it will ever go that far. I’m expecting the US to suffer enough economic calamity to make Americans fed up with the greens. Meanwhile, Europe’s Muslims will have other plans for Eurabia.