Free Markets, Free People

New Hampshire

While the polls may not have been exact as concerns the numbers for each winner, they certainly did predict the winners for each party … or losers if you prefer.

Found a few things interesting.  This for instance:

Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.

He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.

Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.

So what’s Clinton’s answer?  A staff shakeup.  And remember, it’s not the candidate, it’s that they’re just not doing a good enough job getting their message out there.  Oh, and not enough pandering.  So that’s about to change:

Staffing and strategy will be reassessed. The message, which so spectacularly failed in New Hampshire, where she was trailing by 21 points when she appeared before her supporters to concede to Bernie Sanders, is also going to be reworked – with race at the center of it.

Clinton is set to campaign with the mothers of Trayvon Martin and Eric Garner, unarmed African-Americans who died in incidents involving law enforcement officers and a neighborhood watch representative, respectively. And the campaign, sources said, is expected to push a new focus on systematic racism, criminal justice reform, voting rights and gun violence that will mitigate concerns about her lack of an inspirational message.

“The gun message went silent in New Hampshire,” remarked one ally close to the campaign. “Guns will come back in a strong way.” She is expected to highlight the problem of gun violence as the leading cause of death among African-American men as she campaigns in South Carolina on Friday.

Heh … so when in trouble, revert to racism and sexism.  Why now?  Two words “South Carolina” where 60 percent of Democratic voters are African American?

And guns!  Evil, nasty, terrible guns. Don’t forget guns. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

By the way, a quick read of Salon tends to solidify why the Queen is having problems among her own constituency (besides being a terrible candidate that is):

Only Bernie Sanders has harnessed the full power of an electorate disgusted with politicians yet to disclose the transcripts of million dollar speeches. Nothing defines establishment politics better than a Democrat who takes money from the same interest that harm core constituencies of the Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton has accepted campaign contributions from two major prison lobbyists, Wall Street, and the oil and gas industry, yet promises progressive stances against all these interests.

They’re not quite as stupid as Madam Clinton would like to believe.  And by that I mean they’re not buying the Clinton assertion that she’s not establishment and she is going to go after Wall Street.  Actions/words.  Guess which are highlighting the truth in the matter?  Just wait till Sanders names Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.

On the GOP side, the only surprise to me was Kasich.  As Real Clear Politics noted, it may have been his “back to the ’60s” message that resonated in New Hampshire:

In one sense, Kasich’s emergence from the pack was New Hampshire’s most interesting development. Objectively speaking, he may be the most qualified candidate on the Republican side. He’s in his second term as governor of Ohio, perhaps the GOP’s most crucial state, and is a former congressman who helped balance the federal books in Washington when he was chairman of the House Budget Committee.

At times, Kasich sounded like he was running for office as a 1960s Democrat — a Jack Kennedy Democrat — and he even quipped that maybe he should be running in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. But his message resonates with a significant slice of working-class Republicans and crossover independents. He also talks about the obligation of his party to the poor and working class, using arguments that are both practical and faith-based.

“If you think about the American home, which is the family, we know the family is only strong when the foundation is strong,” he said. “That’s why we will wake up every single day to make sure that every American has a job in the United States of America to help their families and their neighbors.”

Or it could be that those who voted for Kasich weren’t very enamored with Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Trump.  We’ll see if this 2nd place finish has any legs in SC.

And how out of touch is the Republican establishment?  This out of touch:

In late January, the New Hampshire Republican Party held a gathering that attracted GOP officials, volunteers, activists, and various other members of the party elite from across the state. At the time, Donald Trump led the Republican presidential race in New Hampshire by nearly 20 points, and had been on top of the polls since July.

What was extraordinary about the gathering was that I talked to a lot of people there, politically active Republicans, and most of them told me they personally didn’t know anyone who supported Trump. Asked about the Trump lead, one very well-connected New Hampshire Republican told me, “I don’t see it. I don’t feel it. I don’t hear it, and I spend part of every day with Republican voters.”

Yes, friends, they’re still in the denial stage.  What is it they don’t seem to realize?

This:

“But this phenomena is the result of 25+ years of failed promises and lackluster leadership over multiple administrations from both parties. People have had it, and those in power don’t want to accept the reality they can no longer maintain the status quo.”

Chickens.  Home.  Roost.

As for the rest of the field?  Well, many of them are in the denial stage as well.  Time for them to shuffle off the stage.  Of course they can remain in the denial stage for as long as their money holds out, but then reality gives them a good slap and they’re gone.  I expect to see Christie, Carson, Fiorina, and yes, Jeb Bush, finally fold their tents in the next week or so.

There is a sort of political revolution in motion right now on both sides.  That’s because party politics in the last few decades has taken priority over the good of the country.  The two parties still haven’t figured that out.  So the voters are very pointedly making it clear they’re completely dissatisfied with the status quo even if they have to elect someone so bad that they may do worse harm to the country than one of the establishment candidates.  Apparently the voting public is tired of the bait and switch game the establishment has been playing for years.

Time to pay the piper I guess.

~McQ

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19 Responses to New Hampshire

  • At 15:14EST 10Feb2016, Christie and Fiorina have suspended their campaigns. My phone is going bonkers with alerts coming through on this.

    That was quick. Who’s next?

    • Oops. You beat me to it.

      As to who is next, I don’t expect any more dropouts until South Carolina.

      Of course, this is the weirdest presidential campaign in my lifetime, so who the heck knows what’s going to happen. I never thought Cruz would be in a decent position at this point.

      • Carson’s next.

      • But you’re right I think, not till South Carolina is done.

        Not sure why he’d hang on that long though – he must see the writing by now.

        • Because Cruz pissed him off.

          I think he was already going to quit before NH.

        • He feels he may have a good showing in SC. He appealed to evangelicals before Cruz started saying Jesus ever other word in Iowa. And there’s the small detail he’s the only Black candidate. He wants to end on a high note which would help his chances for another run in 2020 / 2024.

          • Based on what I read this morning – that seems to be the thinking at least showing wise.

  • Looks like Carly and Christie are both out.

  • It is the voters fault we have a status quo. A lot of people need to look in the mirror. I didn’t vote for any of the status quo people, yet have lived under their representation. I didn’t vote for Dukakis, Clinton, (did vote for Bush, guilty on one I guess, but it was almost 20 years and magnitudes of government size difference), Obama, Levin, Peters, or Stupak or Kildee, or Stabbenow. I didn’t vote for Snyder or his dem opponent, but left that blank. Yet, I am not as mad at the republicans as it appears the average Trump supporter is. This is a weird election. My guys never win except for one term Senator Spencer Abraham. Party politics is what the country wanted, they got it good and hard, and now they are sorry. It is what it is. This will probably make some mad, but I can understand John Roberts not wanting to save people from themselves, and perhaps he also contributed to the rebellion of the parties. Vote for Vermin! Free ponies and no new taxes!

    • Dang, copyrighted – by a dude from Rockport Mass 🙂
      Practically a cousin, he won’t mind.

  • “Vote for Vermin! Free ponies and no new taxes!”

    Ima steal that.

    • I don’t know, I wonder if it’s a much a desire to have them ‘fix’ things, as people thinking they’ll punish the current Aristo-Ruling party class because somehow…these two aren’t aristos? uh……
      So….what….I guess it’s Good King Richard the Lionhearted vs Snively King John the scumbag?

      anyway –

      With Trump’s appeal I think they expect him to roust out the lace classes and ‘fix’ government, not necessarily by making it bigger.
      There seems to be some conviction in various circles that he is going to trim big government as if it’s a business and ‘make it more efficient’.
      That’s a contrast to the Bernie plan to make it bigger and give more stuff away for free after he’s taken it from the appropriate ‘haves’.

      I will agree that perhaps there is some hope that they’ll be an authority figure, even if I have a hard time seeing Sanders in that role.
      He strikes me more as a collectivist ‘let’s have a council meeting’ guy.
      I don’t have a bit of trouble imagining Trump galloping around issuing orders though.

      • There seems to be some conviction in various circles that he is going to trim big government as if it’s a business and ‘make it more efficient’.

        Yep. That’s what all Collectivists say: “We need better “Brights” to run your life”.

        There is NOTHING to find in any T-rump expression to indicate he will make government smaller. Indeed, if you read his immigration paper, it’s a BIG and BIGGER GOVERNMENT manifesto.

        Couple that with his fascist command economics, and you really have a horror show.

        • “There is NOTHING to find in any T-rump expression to indicate he will make government smaller”

          Not that I’ve seen so far – feels like another Barack Obama deal – people are projecting what he’ll do based on what they think they’d like him to do.
          He’ll be whatever you want, and he doesn’t even have to say so himself, people are thinking it all on their own.

          • Fair enough, but unlike Obama or Hillary or Bernie, I believe Trump would be on Americas side. And that’s no small thing today

          • And I’ll concede that point.
            I’ll have to sort out whether or not I feel like he’s doing it because he does has some patriotism in him. First search of my gut says yeah, I think he does.

            Obama seems intent on destroying it, but I’m at a loss as to where he thinks he’s going to go once his “…work here is done now”.
            The Clintons are only interested in keeping American running to milk it some more, but they’d like to have it hang around when they’re done so they can keep drinking the milk.
            Bernie – ah, the guy probably really believes in the magic “limitless supply of stuff” dust that we can grind the %1 down into.
            He talks a good game on, what should be for him, weird parts of the Constitution, like the 2nd Amendment.
            I’m betting though that if he thought it came down to using the government to enforce his Global Warming plans, he’d have the guns hauled away in ship loads if they seemed to pose a threat to his plan.

  • Nothing defines establishment politics better than a Democrat who takes money from the same interest that harm core constituencies of the Democratic Party.

    I have a real problem with that sentence.
    Do Wall Street or banks really harm Democratic constituencies ? … or do they just not bend the rules enough ? .. the “Chicago Way”