If I’m not mistaken, not a single Obama budget (those few he’s submitted) over the years has gotten even one vote when it hit Congress. And that includes votes from Democrats.
This year is likely to be no exception.
Much of the president’s proposed budget’s rosy projections will require considerable tax financing and political restraint to come to fruition. If revenues are lower than anticipated or spending is not restricted as planned, the ten-year debt picture will look quite different. I have noted before that President Obama’s later mid-session review budget differed considerably from his early budget projections. Early revenue and outlay projections were higher than actual amounts, while deficit spending surged much higher than anticipated from 2010 to 2012. This budget will likely mis-project critical variables as well. The rosiest projections all too often turn out to be the most disappointing.
Talk about an understatement. And the rosy projection? Well here it is compared to the CBO projection:
You have to chuckle at a miss that bad. In the outlying years, look at the percent of GDP the CBO projects vs. Obama. Any guess as to which projection is most likely of the two?
Go back to a key line ins De Rugy’s analysis:
If revenues are lower than anticipated or spending is not restricted as planned, the ten-year debt picture will look quite different.
Point to a moment in recent history where our profligate politicians have actually followed a restrictive spending plan that would have the effect Obama says it will?
Yeah, I can’t point to it either.
Regardless, however, we’re supposed to believe that if the plan is followed as layed out in the Obama budget, we’ll see long term debt reduction.
Unfortunatly the next chart doesn’t at all support that claim:
In every year projected, spendin is greater than revenue. So what they’re assuming is massive growth in the eoncomy to make the debt they pile up in the later years a smaller percentage of the GDP.
Really? Taxes are going to go up, government spending will also go up and yet somehow the private economy is going to surge (10 more “recovery summers”, eh?)? Obama plans spending and taxation as a percentage of GDP that are at or near historic highs, but we’ll see huge economic growth to support that?
Wow, if you’re not flying the red BS flag, you need to take an Econ 101 class.
Yet this is what the President of the United States is presenting as a functional budget for this country 10 years into the future.
The Labor Department reports that 175,000 net new jobs were created in February. The unemployment rate rose a tick to 6.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, while the average work week fell from 34.4 to 34.2 hours. The labor force participation rate held steady at 63.0%. The real unemployment rate, using the historical average rate of labor force participation, rose slightly, from 11.14% to 11.19%.
The nation’s trade deficit was $-39.1 billion in January.
January consumer credit rose by $13.7 billion, though this hides a decline of $0.2 billion in revolving credit.
Those chain stores that still report monthly sales generally reported improved year-on-year sales results in February.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report fell to 41,835 layoffs in February from 45,107 in January and 55,356 a year ago.
Gallup’s U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate was 43.1% in February up from 42.0% in January.
Initial jobless claims fell 26,000 to 323,000. The 4-week average fell 1,750 to 336,500, while continuing claims fell 8,000 to 2.907 million.
Productivity in the 4th quarter of 2013 rose a revised1.8%, more than half a percent below expectations.Unit labor costs fell an annualized -0.1%.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.1 points to -28.5 in the latest week, a seven-month high.
Factory orders declined by -0.7% in February, following a January drop that was revised downwards to -2.0%.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $11.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4.172 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $6.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-8.1 billion in the latest week.
The Fed’s Beige Book says that unseasonably cold weather reduced economic activity in two districts, but the rest showed modest to moderate improvement.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose wildly, up 9.4% last week, with purchases up 9.0% and re-fis up 10.0%.
ADP employment report estimates that private payrolls will rise by 139,000 in February.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index rose to 21 in February from 19 the previous month.
Markit’s services PMI slowed from 56.7 in January to 53.3 in February.
ISM non-manufacturing data moved lower to 51.6 in February from 54 in January.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was unchanged at -16 for February.
In weekly retail sales, ICSC Goldman reports a 0.3% weekly sales increase, and a 1.5% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, Redbook says sales rose a weak 2.9% on a year-ago basis.
US auto sales remained relatively flat for the 3rd straight month, at a 15.3 million annual rate.
Gallup’s self-reported Consumer Spending measure rose to $87 per day in February, vice $78 in January.
Personal income rose 0.3% in February, while spending rose 0.4%. The PCE Price index rose 0.3% overall, but only 0.1% at the core level. On a year-over-year basis, income rose4.1%, while spending rose 3.5%. The PCE Price index rose 1.2% overall, and 1.1% at the core level.
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index for February rose to 57.1 from January’s 53.7.
The ISM manufacturing index for February rose to 53.2 from January’s 51.3.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was 53.3 for March, up from 53.0 in February.
Construction spending rose 0.1% in January. On a year-ago basis, spending is up 9.3%.
Real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2013 was revised down sharply to an annualized 2.4% from the initial estimate of 3.2%. That means that GDP growth was, in fact, as sub-par as it seemed. The GDP Price index was revised upwards to 1.6%.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index rose 3.2 points to 59.8 in February.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 0.4 points to 81.6 in February.
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.1% to 95.0 in January, the first increase since last May.
We’ve been told over the last few years that our economy is in a slump but not to worry. It’s temporary. The administration is on it. It’s going to be fixed.
What, we’ve had 5 recovery summers and are heading into our 6th?
Well, the CBO, that office the administration loves to cite when it suits them, has decided that this economy, the Obama economy, isn’t an outlier and we should get used to it:
The part of the past that you deem most relevant can be critical in determining your outlook for the future. And nowhere is that clearer than in the changing economic forecasts that come out of the Congressional Budget Office.
This year’s short-term and long-term economic forecasts are substantially worse than last year’s, even though the economy performed better than expected in 2013. What changed was that the C.B.O. economists essentially decided that they would no longer treat the recent years of poor economic performance as a sort of outlier. They have seen enough of a slow economy to begin to think that we should get used to sluggishness.
They think that Americans will earn less than they previously expected, that fewer of them will want jobs and that fewer will get them. They think companies will invest less and earn less. The economy, as measured by growth in real gross domestic product, will settle into a prolonged period in which it grows at an average rate of just 2.1 percent. From 2019 through 2024, job growth will average less than 70,000 a month.
So, how does it feel? You’ve lived through the “Golden age” and are now relegated to … this. Slow to non-existent job growth. Regulation out the wazoo. Rising health care costs. Taxes eating into earnings and no end in sight.
This is the economy this administration has helped fashion with an insensitivity to the economy and a policy cluelessness that is second to none. The fact that they’re still pushing a raise in the minimum wage in the face of half a million job losses (conservative estimate) says it all.
You reap what you sow, or don’t sow, in this case. What they didn’t sow was economic policies that would get the economy moving, create jobs and keep us in that Golden age. Instead we got ideology first, regardless of the economic consequences.
And this is the result.
As CBO says, get used to it.
Durable goods orders fell -1.0% in January on weak transportation orders. Ex-transportation orders rose 1.1%. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 4.6%, with ex-transportation orders up 1.2%.
Initial jobless claims rose 14,000 to 328,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 338,250, while continuing claims rose 8,000 to 2.964 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2.0 points to -28.6 in the latest week.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell 1 point to 4 in February.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $10.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.160 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $8.4 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $35.9 billion in the latest week.