Fun With Numbers
There were a lot of numbers thrown around in the president’s health care speech the other night. Some of them, unsurprisingly, don’t add up or were at best confusing.
For instance, Obama said 30 million were uninsured. But in the past, he and Democrats have favored the 47 million figure (the figure the Census Bureau claims to be correct). If it is 30 million, I’d love to know where those 17 million got their health care insurance – it might be a good idea to send the other 30 million with them.
But that’s probably not possible because the president said 14,000 Americans are losing their health care insurance every day. So rough back of the envelope math says 2,520,000 (180 x 14,000) more Americans have lost their insurance since he’s been in office.
So is it really 32,520,000 or 49,520,000 uninsured? Or less? Or more?
And as David Freddoso points out, the future’s not so bright either – with 14,000 losing their insurance a day, that means 15,000,000 or so will lose theirs before his plan is enacted in 2013.
No wonder he’s in such a hurry.
Oh, wait – I did say 2013 didn’t I?
Huh … I did.
So why is he in such a hurry?
~McQ
And You Wonder What Fairyland Is Like?
Nancy Peolsi will be the first to tell you that the experts are wrong when they say the public option described by President Obama last night won’t work.
At a separate event, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters that half the bill “will be paid for by squeezing excesses out of the system” by finding $500 billion in reduced waste, fraud, abuse and redundancy. The rest will be paid for in pay-as-you-go funding and cuts in other spending.
“Squeeze it out of the system, and that means out of the providers and the rest as well,” she said.
She added that despite the price tag, there’s no limit on the help people will receive.
“There’s a cap on what you pay in in premiums. There’s no cap on what you receive back,” Pelosi added.
My guess, given the current state of the Nobel Prize, her prize for economics is in the bag. She’s discovered a condition where price controls work and are in perfect equilibrium with unlimited payouts thereby never leading to funding deficits.
It’s freakin’ magic!
~McQ
Obama’s healthcare joint session may have been a sign of desperation
In any contest, you have certain assets, and your strategy is to use the assets in the most efficient and effective way you can find. In war simulations, for example, you normally don’t use offensive units for defense or vice versa.
But there is a point at which that breaks down. Anyone who has played war simulation games, such as Empire or Civilization, is familiar with the “edge of defeat” problem.
When it looks like you are about to be defeated, you use whatever assets you have at hand because your choices start to go away. Some people call this the use-it-or-lose-it point. If you are defeated, your assets don’t matter anyway, so you might as well use them to try and stave off defeat, even if your odds are not very good and you are using them in normally inappropriate ways.
Addressing a joint session of Congress is one of Obama’s assets. Using it ineffectively degrades the ability to use it again. If he did one once a week, or even once a month, then those speeches would get no more attention than the weekly radio address.
Looking at last night, I couldn’t help but feel Obama used that asset ineffectively. He got some juice out of it, but not much, and even the Democrats concede that it was not a game changer.
That asset is now gone for the purposes of the healthcare debate. If he tries to pull it out before sometime next year, it will be mostly ignored. So I’ve been wondering why he decided to commit that asset, even with a speech that didn’t break any new ground or attempt to dramatically change the terms of the debate in any way I can see.
The most likely possibility is that is that Obama’s overconfidence led him to believe he could get more mileage out of the asset than he did. He may be pretty out of touch with the real source of opposition to his healthcare wishes. He may think it’s just a matter of misunderstanding, and that if we all understood what he wanted better, we would just go along with it. I hate to think he’s that out of touch, but I have to rate that the most likely explanation.
But what if he understands that the opposition has hardened? What if he knows that the bill is in trouble, and he’s caught between the liberal caucus insisting on a public option and the Blue Dogs insisting they won’t vote for it, and just doesn’t know what to do? What if he knows that he’s at the edge of defeat on this, and thinks it will be the defining contest of his presidency?
In that case, it would make complete sense to use any asset at his disposal to try and salvage a win. Using the joint session asset to make a routine speech would be scraping the bottom of the barrel, but what other assets does he have that he hasn’t already used? He used up his strong-arming on many House members over cap-and-trade. He used up his high-pressure sales option in the summer. He used up all his influence with the industry to get concession from them, both monetary and that they would not publicly fight him. (I am wondering where that $150 million pledge by PhRMA went, though.)
If Obama is half as smart as his supporters say, the joint session last night could be a sign of desperation, an indication that he knows he’s losing on this and just can’t think of any other asset to use.
The preferred metaphor for his speech is “doubling down”. But you normally double down when you think you’ve got a pretty good chance of winning. I think a “Hail Mary” metaphor might be more applicable.
If true, that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to lose. Sometimes the Hail Mary works. It just doesn’t work that often.
CNN Tries To Spin A “Win” For Obama’s Speech
The good old media waterboy comes through again. Immediately after the speech last night, CNN released the following:
Two out of three Americans who watched President Barack Obama’s health care reform speech Wednesday night favor his health care plans — a 14-point gain among speech-watchers, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national poll of people who tuned into Obama’s address Wednesday night to a joint session of Congress.
Wow … hot stuff huh? You’d think that the magic was back and the silver tongued orator had done it again wouldn’t you? Of course had you bothered to go to the third paragraph you might have become a little uneasy with the result:
The audience for the speech appears to be more Democratic than the U.S. population as a whole. Because of this, the results may favor Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tune into the speech.
And had you then made the “jump” and read the second half of the report, you’d have been downright suspicious of the poll’s results.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted just before and just after the president’s speech, with 427 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican. Our best estimate of the number of Democrats in the voting age population as a whole indicates that the sample is about 8-10 points more Democratic than the population as a whole.
A 427 sample, loaded with Democrats and a plus or minus 5% sampling error?
Does the word “disregard” say it all?
~McQ



