Daily Archives: August 10, 2012
The only economic statistic of note today is import/export prices.
Import prices fell for the fourth straight month , down -0.6% in July. Year-on-year, total import prices are at -3.2%. Total export prices rose 0.5%, though year-on-year export prices are down 1.2%. One note of interest is that agricultural export prices rose 6.4% for the month.
Rob Port brings attention to the Papa John’s story:
At Slate, Matthew Yglesias scoffs at Papa Johns’ founder John Schnatter saying the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare, will drive up costs for his company by roughly $0.20 per order, something his company will be passing along to customers.
“Stipulating for a moment that this is true, doesn’t it seem like a rather small price to pay?” asks Yglesias.
No, it’s not small at all.
Rob then covers just the Papa John’s part of this formulation:
Papa John’s operates 3,973 restaurants. I can’t figure out how many orders the company processes daily, but let’s assume a very conservative 100 orders per store. That’s 397,300 orders every day. Adding $0.20 to ever order in additional labor costs translates into just over $29 million in additional costs for Papa Johns customers annually.
But, of course, as you’ve already figured out, if that’s true for Papa John’s, it is probably true for most other companies in the US as well.
So as Rob says, “no, it’s not small at all”. In fact, it is potentially a huge increase in the price people will pay for all goods and services.
Papa John’s isn’t alone in seeing a price increase in their futures. As the magazine relates, in its most recent earnings call, McDonald’s said the health care plan will cost their stores an extra $10,000 to $30,000. While the vast expansion of government power involved in the bill will result in more federal expenditures, the pizza magnate’s comment highlights the fact that it will create an across-the-board surtax on virtually all expenditures by families and individuals. This will mean an increase in the cost of living that will hit the poor a lot harder than the rich the president claims to want to tax.
In fact, as pointed out, it has the same effect as a tax on the poor.
Yet the left simply seems unable to wrap their heads around that. Here’s a commenter to the article I took the paragraph above from:
It is shocking that the CEO of Papa John’s and this magazine commentator would begrudge the near-poor workers of that company health insurance — and better healthcare for a few cents per pie!! Our country is based on the premise that we all pay a little more to help those less fortunate — the key here is “a little more.” Does anyone really object to that??
Yes. Strenuously. And by the way, this country was not founded on the premise “that we all pay a little more to help those less fortunate” and claiming that to be so is an attempt to rewrite history. It was about providing everyone an equal opportunity under the law to succeed while protecting their basic rights to life, liberty and property.
So we have the probability that prices will increase in the future as companies charge more for their products to cover health care. And that brings us to a pretty basic point, here made by Bethany Mandel at Commentary Magazine:
What this person and other liberals have wrong is this: It’s not about the price of pizza. If it were actually possible to improve healthcare for millions of Americans and insure millions more, conservatives would be on board. The basis of conservative opposition to ObamaCare is this: We do not think it will help the majority of Americans. The bill is titled the “Affordable Care Act,” but does nothing to make healthcare more affordable, nor will it improve health care. In reality, it provides a worse standard of care at a higher cost.
Under ObamaCare, 17 million Americans will be added to Medicaid’s rolls in order to move some Americans from the uninsured to the insured column. Are they actually better off?
I, of course, wouldn’t be “on board” if it had to do with government intervention, however I understand the point she’s trying to make. What has been passed won’t a) reduce costs and make health care more affordable or b) improve health care.
It is the “big lie” writ large. The parameters defining health care delivery are finite, not infinite. You have 24 hours in a day and x number of providers. Is adding 17 million to the welfare portion of government health care (the one most providers refuse to take because of the supreme hassle and low reimbursement rate) really going to improve their lives?
As Avik Roy notes, even though we’ll be paying more across the board to make it possible, probably not:
In July 2010, at National Review Online’s Critical Condition blog, I wrote about a University of Virginia study, published in Annals of Surgery, finding that surgical patients on Medicaid endured a 97 percent higher likelihood of in-hospital death than patients with private insurance, and a 13 percent greater chance of death than those with no insurance at all. I noted several other clinical studies that showed similar results.
And that’s before the 17 million are added. This is the mess we find ourselves in when agenda driven politicians pass laws they haven’t even read over and above the objections of the majority of the people.
It’s hard to call that a “representative democracy” isn’t it?
And, no, this still isn’t about pizza.
UPDATE: Morning Bell (Heritage Foundation) weighs in:
At least 60 percent of firms are estimating Obamacare will raise their health care costs, according to a new study released Wednesday by Mercer, a human resources consulting firm. One-third of those expect a cost increase of 5 percent or more.
The study states:
The employers that will be hit hardest are those with large part-time populations—employers in retail and hospitality services. Nearly half of these employers (46%) expect PPACA will push up cost by at least 3% in 2014—and another third don’t yet know what the impact will be.
An example of the impact from the CEO of CKE Restaurants:
The money to comply with the [Affordable Care Act] must come from somewhere. We use our revenue to pay our bills and expenses, to pay down our debt, and we reinvest what’s left in our business. That’s how we create jobs. There’s no corporate pot of gold we can go to, to cover increased health care costs. New unit construction will cease if we have to allocate moneys for that construction to the ACA. And building new restaurants is how we create jobs.
As we’ve said many times before, this isn’t rocket science and they’re called “economic laws” for a reason. Unfortunately the left continues to ignore them (or pretend they don’t exist) with predictable results.
We’ve been told for some time that violent crime in America is actually at its lowest point since the 1970s.
But we’re also being told by a certain element that gun deaths are out of hand and we need to reconsider tightening our gun laws.
So lets take one of those “perspective” looks shall we?
First a chart that takes us through 2004 showing murders by firearms:
As an aside, the Assault Weapons ban was in effect from 1994 to 2004. Assault weapons would be found under “other guns”. You’ll note that “other methods” and knives, for the most part, were involved in more murders than “assault weapons” (further note that not all “other guns” were “Assault Weapons”, but may have been hunting rifles or shotguns). Rifles of any sort just aren’t the usual weapon of choice for murders.
Also note that murders of all types have been trending down over the years. If you hit the link in the first sentence, it will show you that in 2004 the number of violent crimes per 100,000 was 463.2 and in 2010 it had fallen to 403.6.
If you add handguns and “other guns” from the chart in 2004, you see approximately 10,500 to 11,000 murders by firearms.
The most recent FBI figures show just 358 of the 8,775 murders by firearm in 2010 involved rifles of any type.
By the way, the article that was pulled from noted that in 2010, more people were beaten to death by fists (758) than were killed by “other guns”, aka rifles of any sort.
Michael Wade does the math:
So, based on these two sites (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_households_are_in_the_US)(http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx) there were approximately 115 million households in 2010, and between 41% and 49% (depending on how you do the numbers) had firearms in them.
That’s a minimum of 57.5 million arms (if we assume one firearm per household, which we know isn’t even close to the right number).
If we then assume that each of the 8,775 murders was committed by a separate firearm from a different household each time (again, an assumption we know is wrong but increases the number of households involved), then approximately 0.015% of American households who owned guns were involved with murder by firearm in 2010.
Again, these assumptions make that percentage much higher than it actually is since (a) undoubtedly more households have firearms but don’t report them, (b) households with firearms will typically have more than just one, and may have several, (c) one firearm likely accounted for more than one of the 8,775 murders, and (d) the vast majority of the murders were likely committed with firearms that were illegally possessed!
Even so, slightly more than one one-thousandth of one percent of gun owners is the highest amount you are going to be able to implicate in murder by firearm, despite all the generous assumptions made in favor of the gun control side.
That does not speak to a winning argument IMHO.
No it sure doesn’t, not that they won’t try anyway. Additionally, when you do the math about chances of being a victim of firearm murder, the figure 312.8 million is what you need to divide into the 8,775 yielding a terrifying 0.000028% chance of being a victim of a firearm murder in 2010 (if you’re a gambler, though, move to Chicago and you can quickly reduce the odds).
In fact, you’re much more likely to die from one of these causes than a gunshot murder:
Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421
Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787
Life is perilous, but for the most part, not because of guns.
As someone recently said, we don’t need gun control, we need idiot control. Not sure how we control the idiots, but I’m sympathetic to the idea. Statistically though, the number of firearm murders per year simply doesn’t justify any renewed call for banning or restricting the sale or possession of firearms.