Free Markets, Free People


Meanwhile in Egypt …

I hate to throw out the old “I told you so”, but it appears Egypt is trying to go according to my prediction.  That is, the Muslim Brotherhood – the best organized of the opposition forces – would take the lead in forming the “new” Egypt and the military – which has held power for 60 years – would find a way to retain its power.  The New York Times reports that’s exactly what seems to be happening:

In post-revolutionary Egypt, where hope and confusion collide in the daily struggle to build a new nation, religion has emerged as a powerful political force, following an uprising that was based on secular ideals. The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group once banned by the state, is at the forefront, transformed into a tacit partner with the military government that many fear will thwart fundamental changes.

Emphasis mine.  As I’ve mentioned previously, “secular” may not mean what you think it means in an Islamic country.  And I’ve all but worn out the David Warren quote, but again which group has the “simplest, most plausible, most easily communicated “vision?”  That means:

It is also clear that the young, educated secular activists who initially propelled the nonideological revolution are no longer the driving political force — at least not at the moment.

Indeed, my guess is that the moment is lost for them for good.  Why?  Because it isn’t in the best interest of either the MB or the military to let that particular “political force” reemerge.  So:

As the best organized and most extensive opposition movement in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was expected to have an edge in the contest for influence. But what surprises many is its link to a military that vilified it.

“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” said Elijah Zarwan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “It makes sense if you are the military — you want stability and people off the street. The Brotherhood is one address where you can go to get 100,000 people off the street.”

And there you have it.  Result?

“We are all worried,” said Amr Koura, 55, a television producer, reflecting the opinions of the secular minority. “The young people have no control of the revolution anymore. It was evident in the last few weeks when you saw a lot of bearded people taking charge. The youth are gone.”

So much for the “Twitter” revolution.

~McQ

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21 Responses to Meanwhile in Egypt …

  • The “Twitter” revolution was lost the day it began.  Why?  Because only one organization had the infrastructure and lifting power in the eyes of the military, the only true source of power in Egypt, and that was the Muslim Brotherhood.  The military took its time throwing its weight to the MB, waiting for them to break their cover from years of hiding in the Mubarrak background.

    The young secularist were the ones who took the risks; the ones who played the part of the bomb throwers and took the sting out of any series of reprisals, but when the rubber met the road, only one organization showed itself to actually be organized – the MB.  And the military was ultimatley not going to side with a bunch of anarchistic bomb throwers – no staying power.  Had they a lick of sense – read organization or even consistent methodology – they might have had a chance with the military.  Instead they have just highlighted themsleves to the MB as the first of those who will need re-education or elimination when power is solidified.

  • I guess old and determined beats young and passionate every time…

    “There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” said Elijah Zarwan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “It makes sense if you are the military — you want stability and people off the street. The Brotherhood is one address where you can go to get 100,000 people off the street.”

    I don’t want to draw too close a parallel, but somehow I’m thinking of the unholy alliance between the nazis and the German army against the “young blood” of the SA.  The army wanted order.  Hitler was willing to give it to them by green-lighting the Night of the Long Knives.  The army thought they could control Hitler.  They were wrong.

    My guess is that the army and the MB are both thinking, “We’ll partner up with these clowns temporarily, but WE will be in charge.” It remains to be seen who comes out on top.  The advantage that the Egyptian army has is that they have been running things for quite some time; they are (I suppose) politically savvy.  On the other hand, religion is a powerful motivator.

    Jeebus, I hope this ends well.

    • I think it was the SS that performed the purge, not the army. An internal party matter.

      • You are correct that actual dirty work was done by the SS, but the Reichswehr was certainly cool with the whole thing, and it was done in no small part to placate the generals who detested the SA.

        • The SA wanted to replace the army. The army tried to be apolitical, and didn’t want to deal with the SA directly, and Hitler turned the SS on them. The army eliminated a threat, Hitler got the support of the army, and the SS became the primary nazi paramilitary org. The SA got a knife in the back.

          As it happened, the SS eventually was intended to replace the army post war. Not quite the armies’ intent when the worry was the SA. Early in the war, the invasion of Poland, France, etc., the SS wasn’t much, but late in the war the SS became one of the best armed and trained German forces.

  • We’ve seen this movie before .. in Cuba, even more so in Iran.
    The revolution starts with the purest of ideals .. and then is hijacked by those folks with the guns.

    • Recall Russia in effect had two seperate revolutions. It is a bit different, but early on the Russian revolutions were looking somewhat positive, particularly if you don’t have our modern appreciation of leftist clusterf*cks.

  • Huh.  It is almost like understanding human nature, and what people have done historically, could give a person a window into the future…or something…

    Well, it helps to deal in reality, too.

    • … history repeats itself (?)

    • No no no, advanced degrees always give you more insight, even if you’ve ignored history and human nature all your life.

      You have to understand Rags, otherwise there’s no real value to that tin-press stamp degree!   Tthat’s just silly, we all know that college degrees always confer wisdom upon the holder.  It has been decreed!

      • Seems I came acrost something that talked about “forever learning and never understanding”.  But I’m just a dense Righty…
        I just can’t see how human nature changed a decade or so ago.  Must have been the Y2K thingy.

        • “I just can’t see how human nature changed a decade or so ago.  Must have been the Y2K thingy.”
          I have an old system’s flow diagram I can send you – if you follow it from the beginning, eventually you reach the box labeled “Miracle occurs here”.

          That’s pretty much what happened sometime after midnight on Jan 1, 2000.
          PFM man, PFM.  If you’re not familiar with that acronym, two of the words are Pure and Magic.

        • On other fronts, he appeared at the tail end of the Obama Doctrine post and mumbled about ‘success in Libya’, alluding to the idea that it would establish a new paradigm of international cooperation, my words, not his, but you could see the concept there.  No doubt that will lead to all kinds of world wide goodness, and democracy, and young people throwing away the old ways and, wow man, I’m getting an early 70′s rush here, hang on while I groove on it.

  • But what’s important is that the Egyptians went through their Hope and Change phase before catching the bus to the 14th Century.

  • “The young people have no control of the revolution anymore.”

    WHAT???
    But what about twitter, and all that other good stuff? And we were assured by edjicated xperts that the yoot would triumph!
    I am shocked and dismayed.

    On the other hand, we were assured by past experience that the best organized and most ruthless would triumph, even if they were a minority. Perhaps the experts need to actually study some history instead of talking about it.

  • The socialist solution to the problems of Socialism is more Socialism
    The islamic solution to the problems of Islam is more Islam
    They will be natural allies, till they recogize the danger the other poses to their own domination.
    The question is which will be the useful idiots. I’m betting the left continue to be the idiots
     

  • Look!  The blooming of democracy!   We just don’t understand here in the west, Islam is practically democracy incarnate -

    Egyptian enlightenment commences

    • Yeah, I remember the “woman’s rights march” to Tirir Square just a matter of days after the “big change”.

      Seems there were a lot of men there supporting a woman’s rights…to be groped, fondled, and sexually assaulted by a lot of men.

      Ah, modernity…!!!

  • I’m awaiting Erp’s pronouncement on this. There is no way this Egyopt thing is turning out bad; this is the age of Obama and all.

  • The Egyptian case for constitutional amendments making it an Islamic State ..

    “The problem is that our country will be without a religion,” read a flier distributed in Cairo by a group calling itself the Egyptian Revolution Society. “This means that the call to the prayer will not be heard anymore like in the case of Switzerland, women will be banned from wearing the hijab like in the case of France,” it said, referring to the Muslim head scarf. “And there will be laws that allow men to get married to men and women to get married to women like in the case of America.” …

    .. and they said it was victimless.

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