Free Markets, Free People


The Shape of Things to Come

It seems so hard to remember those halcyon days, long ago, when there was some optimism about the country’s economic future. Why, it seems like just last week, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was telling us to be cautiously optimistic about the near future.

In his twice-yearly testimony to Congress, Bernanke conceded the economy was undergoing a “severe contraction”, but held out hope of recovery if the White House’s latest bail-out helped to unblock lending to households and businesses.

“Only if that is the case, in my view there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery,” he told the Senate banking committee, adding that healthier global markets would also be essential if the US economy was to return to health.

Some were willing to go even farther, in those happier days of February, 2009.  Some chap named Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group who seems really to believe that happier days are just around the corner.

“We are not doomed to a lost decade of the sort experienced by Japan in the 1990s,” Mr. Baumohl says. “Nor are we in a depression. We view the drop in GDP in the last quarter, which we may see repeated in magnitude this quarter, [as] symptomatic of a recession in its final convulsive stages, to be followed by a recovery in the second half of the year.”

Oh, wait.  That was last week.

This week started off with the S&P 500 dropping another 4.66% today, closing at 700.82, and the Dow off by 4.24% to close at 6,763.29.  Well, you can’t slip something like that past the boys at the Dallas Morning News.

“The number 7,000 is not what is important,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Illington Advisors in Albany, N.Y. “What is important to everyone is the message that the market is sending us with these losses.”

And that message is that the current recession probably will be longer and more severe than most people expected. For months, the consensus on Wall Street was that the low of 7,500 that the Dow hit in November 2008 would mark the bear market bottom.

Many market analysts predicted that while the Dow would “retest” that low, it would not break through it. They were wrong. The scary thing now is where the Dow and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index will make their next stand.

As I’ve mentioned several times, both on the blog, and on the podcast, the historical long-term trend is for the average P/E ratio to drop back to 15.  Well, that implies that our equilibrium point is somewhere in the vicinity now of 6,000 on the Dow, and about 620 or so for the S&P.  So we’ve still got a ways to go if that historical trend holds true.

Of course, we also have a tendency to drop below an average P/E of 15 as we pull back off the highs, so a 5,000 Dow doesn ‘t seem like an overly pessimistic prediction.

I know I’ve been consistently downbeat on the economy for the last several months, and nothing I’ve seen since I started writing about this in 2007 has changed my mind.  I’m not counting on a recovery in 2009, or even in 2010.

 

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3 Responses to The Shape of Things to Come

  • I agree. There’s nothing – other than wishful thinking – to indicate the slide will not continue.

  • “The number 7,000 is not what is important,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Illington Advisors in Albany, N.Y. “What is important to everyone is the message that the market is sending us with these losses.”
    And that message is that the current recession probably will be longer and more severe than most people expected. For months, the consensus on Wall Street was that the low of 7,500 that the Dow hit in November 2008 would mark the bear market bottom.

    Carefully note the choice of language here: “the recession”.  Ah, yes, the recession, that impersonal force majeure that was created by Bush but, somehow, isn’t responsive to anybody else.  It continues on – nay, becomes worse! – all by itself.  The “markets”, those other impersonal, unemotional entities, will send us nice signals about what the recession is doing, but there is apparently no human involvement anywhere.

    BULLS**T.

    The recession isn’t getting worse because it just is: it is getting worse because of boneheaded policies in Washington.  The markets, which are made of millions of PEOPLE, are signalling that those people aren’t very happy about those policies and the effect they think they will have.

    Much of economics is about confidence in the future.  When people are confident, the markets go up.  When they are not confident, they come down.  When people are confident, they spend money and stimulate the economy.  When they are not confident, they pay off debt or simple squirrel their money away in savings accounts or under their mattresses.

    Perhaps MiniTru will figure out these simple truths.

    Nah… If they did, then they might start asking questions about WHY people aren’t feeling confident these days, and that might lead them right back to TAO.  Can’t have that.