Free Markets, Free People


Economic Statistics for 5 Oct 12

Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:

The Monster Employment Index fell three points in September to 153, indicating a slowdown in inline recruitment.

The Employment Situation report indicates that 114,000 net new jobs were created in September. The unemployment rate fell 0.3% to 7.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while the average workweek increased by 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours. The drop in the unemployment rate is statistically questionable, as it indicates that 873,000 people found jobs in a month when only 114,000 net new jobs were created. That just didn’t happen. We’d have noticed if a million people went back to work in a single month. Finally, payrolls for the last two months were revised upwards substantially, with last month’s payroll jobs revised from 96,000 to 141,000, and July revised up to 181,000 from 141,000. So, the last month before the election, we get a seemingly improved employment report, but expect a massive revision to today’s report next month, as this month’s household survey is clearly a statistical outlier. The U-6 unemployment rate—the broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment—stayed steady at 14.7%.

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Dale Franks
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4 Responses to Economic Statistics for 5 Oct 12

  • I’ve spent the morning poring over these numbers in commenting on what I find.
    My short version response to you, Dale, is that while I do not suspect the BLS of misreporting these numbers, the issue is how those numbers got reported to us , by both the white house and their minions in the supposed mainstream media.
    The timing is certainly questionable.  Why on earth would a administration which is well known for its lying want to spike numbers in last month’s before an election?  Particularly, after the dismal debate performance of the other night?

    An example; from the AP…

    Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million.

    Of course, that little tidbit is buried waaaaaay down on the very last line of the story.  What  they’re admitting here, is that underemployment of the individual is an issue. One Obama and company would rather you not know about.
    And one wonders what the numbers will look like once the layoffs start happening at defense plants around the country, hmmm? You remember… the pink slips Obama’s people didn’t want going out until after the election.
    You correctly point to the U6 numbers.  I don’t think that can be under stressed.
    The other point is that the majority of these new jobs which brought these numbers of our in fact part time jobs.  Clearly, these part time jobs are being taken in majority simply in an attempt to keep food on the table.  These are people that can’t find fulltime work in the Obama economy.
    And I see a little noticed codicil in the numbers which reports that Hispanic unemployment is in the neighborhood of 10% on average, and black unemployment is even worse in the neighborhood of 15%.  These are groups Obama has traditionally relied upon.  Yet, the numbers tell us that they are even worse off than they were four years ago.  I can’t help but think that that’s going to be something of a ramification come November .
    I’ve got the raw chart up at my place if you’re interested.
     

  • You’re not seeing it because the people who went back to work are in the other 7 of the 57 states.