Free Markets, Free People


ICYMI: Global warming appears to have stopped 16 years ago

But, of course, it is one of the Obama administration’s priorities (could it be because a carbon tax would most likely kill even more jobs?).  Bottom line?

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported. This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year.

Of course the figures, as mentioned, were “quietly” released without an media fanfare.  None.  They were just plopped out there.

Die-hard warmists aren’t going to pay any attention to it though.  Just watch.  Those who claim “science” should trump and we should be doing something to curb our carbon footprints really don’t care about science.

Does it matter that campaigners and the media are actively peddling disinformation? For the most part, probably not, as the public is by now used to such nonsense on just about every subject from unemployment figures to Barack Obama’s birth certificate. But there is one group that should be very concerned about the spreading of rampant misinformation: the scientific community. It is, of course, thrilling to appear in the media and get caught up in highly politicized debates. But leading scientists and scientific organizations that contribute to a campaign of misinformation — even in pursuit of a worthy goal like responding effectively to climate change — may find that the credibility of science itself is put at risk by supporting scientifically unsupportable claims in pursuit of a political agenda.

Absolutely.  But back to Roger Pielke Jr’s question at the beginning.  Does it matter that politicians and the media are actively peddling disinformation?  Yes, in fact it does.  Because they are able, if they convince enough people, to force us to pay for one of their revenue schemes with the false science they peddle.  So yes, it does matter.   But his point about scientists is important as well.  It is the scientific community that should be up in arms about the fiasco that global warming, or as warmists now prefer, “climate change”, has been presented.  Pure, grant peddling, hogwash.

Dr. Judith Curry at Georgia Tech says:

The data confirms the existence of a ‘pause’ in the warming. The impact of this pause within the climate dynamic community has been to focus increased attention on the impact of natural variability, particularly the impact of internal multi-decadal oscillations in the ocean.  The new climate model calculations for the AR5 have focused on trying to assess what it would take to accurately simulate these multi-decadal ocean oscillations and how predictable they might be.  These new observations and climate modeling results will hopefully impact the the IPCC AR5 deliberations so that we do not see the same overly confident consensus statements that we saw in the AR4.

Got that?  They don’t even know what it will take to simulate the “multi-decadal ocean oscillations”.  That should tell you all you need to know about the efficacy of the previous models which so “over confidently” claimed both viability and consensus.  As we’ve since learned, they had neither.

Final nail?  Oh, no.  Zombie warmism will be with us until the newest man-made apocolypse is “discovered”.

~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Facebook: QandO

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44 Responses to ICYMI: Global warming appears to have stopped 16 years ago

  • The religion of AGW has a lot of utility…whether you are a true-believer or a cynical old cardinal like OwlGore.
    For the easily deluded Collectivist acolyte, it is a(nother) cheap source of sanctimony.
    For the power-hungry, it is a means to maintain a(nother) constant crisis.
    And for OwlGore, it has been a gold mine.
    Time to take it away from them all.

    • I seem to recall the warmists talking about taking our stuff as punishment at a later date.  That being the case, we ought to be able to do the same if this has proven to be a colossal panic fabrication.  This was akin to yelling FIRE in a crowded theater with the intent to cause panic.   I think we would all agree :) this sort of panic causing speech should be restricted in the future,  no?

  • If only someone who knows the science is settled would come and tell us why this study is wrong!   But I expect he’s busy planning to defeat us politically.  At last report, he intends to use democracy to force us to take him seriously (by that I mean, live the way he wants us to and do as we’re told by experts like him).

    • The liberals’ contempt is a companion to the tyrannical impulse that governs their politics. They want to run our lives. Indeed, they think they are fit to run our lives and they we are unfit to run them ourselves. William Buckley used to proclaim with a glint in his eye that a liberal is someone who wants to reach into your shower and adjust the temperature of the water. Man, oh, man, was he right.
      The tyrannical impulse underlying modern liberalism is inconsistent with the democratic temper founded on the proposition that all men are created equal. Manners are the relic of an ancient past. They are obsolete. They are dead as the dodo.

      That was from PowerLine on Biden.  But it certainly has a lot of application here, dunnit…???

    • “But I expect he’s busy planning to defeat us politically.”

      He has retreated to his secluded, secret laboratory in the Fortress of Moositude, where he labors day and night to defeat the forces of ignorance, evil, and (most diabolical of all) reality.

      • I admit to going over to scout – as you would expect, he’s a bigger ass hat on his own site than he is here (which is his right I guess).
        He really dislikes Western Civ (it appears post dark age Europeans were the first people to hit on the idea of slavery and/or conquest….who knew?) and he thinks Joe Biden is really a great leader, based on pleasant elevator conversation (a little name dropping never hurts).

        He’s an ‘educated’ piece of work.

        • I always love the oft repeated vignette of him on the floor of the GOP convention.
          What the name of the guy was who had him there is totally his business…

          • My favorite is still the justified pizza theft story.  It’s such a proud moment that exemplifies a good portion of everything he stands for.

          • “I always love the oft repeated vignette of him on the floor of the GOP convention.”

            How did I miss that? What was he doing, delivering pizza? Anyway, all the important people were up in the “hospitality suites”. I guess they ‘forgot’ to tell him about those. They must have had a good laugh when the camera panned the crowd and that puffed-up little blivet appeared.  He must have been easy to spot, what with the empty space around him.

        • “post dark age Europeans”

          post“??? Whatever gave you the impression that Western Civilization has emerged from the dark ages? Although all that EU stuff shows there is hope.

          Seriously, though, it is good to see that you had all your innoculations before you visited the fever swamps.

          “(a little name dropping never hurts).”

          That’s all that putz has going for him. He spends a couple of years as a Congressional gofer and thinks that makes him special and gives him some insight and inside knowledge. He was, and still is, a very small fish in any size pond.

          • I’ll pretend he understands the Roman’s, Greeks (all of the city states…and the cities in Asia Minor….), Arabs, Jews, Egyptians, Phoenicians, Persians, Syrians, Hittites, Macedonians, Scythian, Parthians, Carthaginians, Iberians, Gauls, Celts, Scandanavians, Aztecs, Mayans, Inca, Chinese, Japanese, native Americans, and so on, and so on, and so on, practiced slavery, but believes that isn’t the same as taking slaves from Africa.   And I’ll pretend that none of these peoples, world wide, WANTED empires, or expanded them via conquest.   I will pretend these two historically unique behaviors were confined to Northwestern Europe, and were only practiced by the ancestors of current white Europeans and Americans, after their emergence from the Dark Ages.

          • “I will pretend these two historically unique behaviors were confined to Northwestern Europe, and were only practiced by the ancestors of current white Europeans and Americans, after their emergence from the Dark Ages.”
            And we will conventiently not try to explain how the trafficking of people from Africa to the white man’s farms was ended mostly by… white Christians and the power of the (white man’s) Royal Navy.

  • What I want to point out is a common tactic used by media.  About halfway down they show a picture claiming “This image shows smoke billowing out of a power station”.  Ridiculous.  What the picture shows is cooling towers billowing … steam.

    • That’s not intent, that’s their actual ignorance in action.  They DO think that’s smoke.   They don’t notice it usually dissipates quickly, and even if they DO, they will presume that volume of smoke will do the same in the same time frame.

      For many of them their experience with smoke and steam extends to the output of their gas grills and tea kettles.

      • “For many of them their experience with smoke and steam extends to the output of their gas grills and tea kettles.”

        True. Many of them have no experience of actual pollution, since most of it has been cleaned up. Only us old folks seem to remember actual smog and such. The view from the top of the Empire State building is a lot better than it used to be, and a lot more beaches are open now.

        • “Only us old folks seem to remember actual smog and such”

          One of the reasons I guffaw whenever I hear about the EVIL REPUBLICANS (paste image here of Richard III, Dracula, Simon Lagree and Rasputin having lunch) who WANT the air and water to be polluted.  I presume that’s what they do when they’re not pushing granny of the cliff in her wheelchair and starving hungry children.

    • Long ago I worked for a local gov’t. pollution control agency. I can remember citing one small business for emitting steam, while ignoring a large international company actually emitting particulates visible miles away. Never stipulate to the expertise of an “expert witness”.

      • Never stipulate to the expertise of an “expert witness”.

        OR believe in the efficacy of “regulators”.

    • Burning hydrocarbons does produce CO2 and water vapor.  So although it is just steam, it does come directly from the burning by product too.

      But you’re correct, they let everyone assume that is smoke of one kind or another.

    • The UK has had many photos of these cooling towers and similar items before where they actually add in smoke in photoshop.

      http://tomnelson.blogspot.tw/2011/11/whos-got-time-to-investigate.html

  • Which brings us back to …

    Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

    The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

    Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific technological elite.

    It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system — ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.

    Military-Industrial Complex Speech, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961

  • I’ve seen the counter to this already this morning. 

    They take the data and do a 10-year average.  Then they change the scale.   They get a hockey stick, although less severe, for the ending 20 years of their 10-year moving average.  And they insist that 10 moving average is the correct way to look at the data.

    Problem is if you do a 10-year moving average only upto the point when they started screaming about the hockey stick just over 10 years ago, there is no hockey stick.  It looks like normal variation. 

  • C’mon guys.  Only those firmly in the denialist camp will not recognize that, though the 17 year period without warming matches closely to the 20 year period of warming from the late 70s to late 90s on which the real climate scientists base their projections of doom, we now know that 17 years is way too short a time period for use in determining what is going on with the global climate.  Similarly, the cooling of the Antarctic and the record (since 1979) expansion of the ice pack is now known by real climate scientists as due to warming globally, despite what our models projected previously.  Plus it’s those darn Chinese environmental renegades putting crap in the air from their industrialization that blocks incoming radiation.  Those of us who began a career in climatology 40 years ago (coming out of the closet here) when it was a quiet backwater in the atmospheric sciences, and before it was hi-jacked by the Goreacle and the grant seeking community of doom-proclaiming scientists, have stated for many years that  “It’s the oceans stupid”.

    • Sure, and I suppose the sun has something to do with it too.   The science is settled I tell you!

  • I know that I have far less respect and deference for scientists. And global hoohah is not the first such big scare, not by a long shot. There have been many. I found especially egregious the magazine Scientific American, A mag I used to subscribe to.  They became big AGW cheerleaders, they attacked sceptics, and they also, in general, interpret any and all data, about any subject, in a left wing political way.

    They have lost all credibility.
    Also, Al Gore is a dangerous charlatan and grifter.

    • Yep. I used to be a big fan of that magazine, back in the early 80s when I was young. I think that they were less overtly leftist then, but also I was more open to left wing arguments.

    • With a bucket of cash I can find someone from any profession to say what I want them to say.   Its not about Scientists.  Its about money talking.  And ruining dissenters doesn’t hurt, either.

  • I’ll just repeat what I said over at Daily Pundit in Bill’s post on the same article:

    Much of the code for the models was released as part of that document dump that exposed those emails and led to the CRU scandal. I took a look at it. FORTRAN was my first programming language, and I know there are fewer of us around than there used to be, so I wanted to get some first hand understanding of just how bad the scandal was.

    The answer: really bad. That code is atrocious. It has “magic numbers” – constants that have no obvious source and which manipulate the output – all over the place. Some of them are dependent on the age of the data.
    It’s such a mess that it’s hard to say definitively that the author of the code set out to cook the data, but certainly this code would not absolve anyone of that charge either.

    The one thing I’ll state categorically, based on a career in software development: anyone who proposes to force changes to laws and economies with effects that total trillions of dollars based on the output of that code is a <redacted> fool.

    That has nothing to do with my libertarian political philosophy. It’s just a professional evaluation of some of the shoddiest computer code that I’ve ever seen taken seriously.

    • Billy those were the special FORTRAN reserved ‘fix it’ constants. To fully understand them, and their use, you have to have the special “Inside secret FORTRAN” manual that has been out of print for 30 years and hasn’t been reproduced on the net (and, mysteriously, but conveniently, never will be).

      I remember those types of constants, I used to use them in Trig and Algebra classes and Physics labs when my equations didn’t get the expected results….It was very scientific, trust me.

      .

      • “I remember those types of constants, I used to use them”

        Wow! I wish I had thought of that. I could have been a real scientist! A perfesser!

        • My teachers never appreciated my genius!

          As a result I had to go out into the world and get a job in the private sector.

    • Kinda like the “special sauce” that really, really sciencey pollsters have to pour over their polls using strangely skewed samples and turn-out assumptions….

    • Obviously you are stuck in the days of FORTRAN IV and are unable to appreciate the innovations in later releases of FORTRAN.  They have made lots and lots of progress since then. Really. It works much better now. Honest Injun.

      Ooops! I think I just showed my racist wingtnuttery.

      • Holy crap!  Fortran 2008?  (and I see we don’t have to capitalize it now eh?)

        Next you’ll want to convert it to COBOL.

    • I looked at that code, too. It was the worse code I have ever seen. (That includes the cludges some engineers would script for themselves)

  • No, no, no. You have it wrong, as usual. Science is theories and formulas and stuff. Data is reality. They are different, you know. Try not to get confused.

  • Anthony Watts (Watts Up With That) shows that even the Met Office is highly inaccurate.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/15/the-met-office-responds-to-global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago/
    And his review of the Surface Stations is another nail in the AGW coffin.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/  (lot’s of stuff there)

  • The data confirms the existence of a ‘pause’ in the warming.

    Except NOAA stated in 2008 …

    “Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”

    • ruh-roh
      And every year it keeps on, then its even less and less likely.
      Also, I’m not sure a 95%CI is really good enough when we are talking trillions of spending based on the result.

  • This evidence, like all others, will go into the scientific pot, to be melded with the reminder and a possible new outcome resulting.  Conservatives would prefer that science would short-circuit the scientific method, more quickly to arrive at their conclusion.

    • No, moron.  What Conservatives would prefer is that Collectivists like you don’t “short-circuit” reason and liberty in a witch-craft induced rush to stupid regulations.

    • Really?  I know you won’t answer this, but for the benefit of others who might be mislead by your asshat comment – perhaps you would care to explain how the warmers, yelling 10 years ago about how we had to DO SOMETHING!!!!!!! NOW!!!!! were following a scientific method that would have resulted, 10 years later, in no wasted spending on a problem we weren’t causing, and could do nothing about.

      scientific method – that’s the point we’ve been trying to make – yelling the word “CONSENSUS” and branding everyone who disagreed with you as a destructive denier is NOT scientific. blackballing, discrediting, and participating in character attacks on people who disagreed with the ‘consensus’ is NOT scientific.

      So don’t waddle in here and pretend the warmists crowd were willing to be scientific.


       

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