Free Markets, Free People


Final thoughts on today’s vote

John Podhoretz mentions something we’ve been talking about for a while:

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, it’ll likely be because of something revealed by a little-noticed statistic released yesterday by the polling firm Rasmussen — following a similar statistic last week from Gallup.

Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic.

This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll.

This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican. Except that last week, Gallup — the oldest and most reputable national pollster — released its party ID survey of 9,424 likely voters. And it came out 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.

I’m not at all comfy with R+6 from Rasmussen. But what should be taken away from this is the fact that two major polling firms have surveyed likely voters extensively and come up with similar results about the mix of self-identified Republicans and Democrats.   And what they’ve found is a profound shift from 2008.

Why does this matter?  Check history:

Because never in the history of polling, dating back to 1936, have self-identified Republicans outnumbered Democrats on Election Day. Never. Ever.

Hmmm.  So indies are breaking for Romney by 7 points, 13% of those who voted for Obama last time say they’re not going to vote for him this time and for the first time since 1936 we’re pretty sure that it is R+something, but Obama is going to win?

Excuse us for being skeptical again, but sometimes the “numbers” just don’t add up.  And, then, as we’ve mentioned, there are the atmospherics, something polling companies really don’t plug into at all.  Sometimes, as in 2010, the gut comes through because the brain has assimilated a lot more than the numbers provided and ends up with a conclusion that is contrary to the conventional wisdom.

I still believe this is one of those times.

~McQ

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37 Responses to Final thoughts on today’s vote

  • Why I believe…
    1. I experienced the Reagan Landslide. The atmosphere was much the same from the talking heads and newsrooms. On the street, it was oddly out-of-sync with what we were being told.
    2. I believe in the American people. I believe they are capable of self-government, which necessarily translates to being able to tell sh!t from Shineola. The last four years have not been merely a failure, but an assault.
    3. ObamaCare is just ONE of many travesties foisted off on us, AND it remains very unpopular…maybe more so as we have learned its ruinous effects. But there are MANY other policies we could name that are unpopular.
    4. America is a center-right country, with Conservatives twice the number of Collectivists.
    5. 2010
    6. The Walker recall was supposed to be tight according to the Mushroom Media.
    7. I think the polling sometimes is disjointed from reality, and for several reasons this year is one of those times.

  • And don’t forget the Redskins lost Sunday - at home!

    • This is one of the most foolish prediction standard of them all.

      Here’s the deal.  The odds are in favor of the incumbent winning the election.  The odds are in favor of any NFL home team winning their game.  Thus, it is no surprise that the incumbent winning the election and the Redskins winning their home game match up more often than not.

      That said, when was the last time the Redskins lost their home game yet the incumbent won the election?  Well, to give you a hind… We didn’t know what “Twitter” meant; James Bond never had blonde hair; and “Kardashian” invoked images of Star Trek.  You know… Waaaaaaayyyy back in 2004.

      Keep the fantasy alive.

      Cheers.

  • Yeah, but how many dead people and pets responded to Gallup or Rasmussen party affiliation polls?  Because ‘they’ will show up to vote, if they haven’t already via absentee ballot. 

  • The polling seems to indicate a weak Romney advantage, and I’m hoping that translates into an electorial landslide. Still, I remain dissapointed in my fellow citizens. What kind of idiot would vote for Obama in 2012?

  • The real poll is today.

  • What, you don’t believe CNNs D+ 11 poll? If we show up like 2010 there’s nothing the Dems can do. To paraphrase Don Zimmer, I’m going with Romney and champagne.

  • I notice that defense stocks and some medical device stocks (both hurt by a second Obama term) are up a lot this morning.  Some coal stocks are up modestly.
    —PowerLine

    Bellwethers…?

  • 39+33=72, so I suppose the other 28% is Independent?
    If they’re going for Romney like we’ve heard,60+%, it’s be…what, Romney 57-43%?

  • Watch PA tonight. If it’s too close to call early, good night for Mitt. If we take it, off to the races

  • I have my martini (Gibson), my Rocky Patel Olde World Reserve, and I’m at peace with the world, knowing I’ve done all I can.

  • What you have consistently overlooked is the fact that the “self-identified indies” consists of a large portion of former republicans who are uncomfortable identifying themselves as republicans.  And that, of course, explains the sampling in ALL of the polls.
    Which is odd because you should know about this first hand.  After all, “neolibertarian” translates to “I’m too embarrassed to call myself a republican.”

    BTW, are you guys going to do a “live blog” during the results like you have done in the past?

    Cheers.

    • And that, of course, explains the sampling in ALL of the polls.

      Step away from the bar, and try…try…to explain WTF you meant by that, and how it makes any sense whatsoever.

    • You’re getting kinda boring dude.

      • Sorry to disappoint you, looker.  I think you just might be in a bad mood… the night is going the way you had hoped.

        Incidentally, FoxNews is continuing their conspiracy theories as to why Romney is losing – the hurricane, the press, imaginary voter fraud.  It’s pathetic really.

        • What’s pathetic, loser?  Vote fraud?  It isn’t “imaginary”.  You need to read more, idiot.

        • Well then, “good and hard” mode will be the order of the day I guess.

          So, this is what a Kerry voter feels like eh?

        • There’s no conspiracy needed here.  It’s just plain willful and encouraged ignorance on the part of half the electorate that is about to be corrected through generally inescapable monetary demonstration.

          If that’s how it has to be, so be it.

  • The upside for me is I’ll certainly be laughing plenty over the next 4 years.

  • Tipping point: reached.

  • After Obama won tonight:  I guess you people are just going to have to complain about Obama for another for years. And then, if Hillary Clinton decides to run in 2016—or if she decides not to run, and after the economy runs its course and improves—then the Democrats will run Andrew Cuomo (and if the conservatives can’t get their act together, and become less of a reactionary party), and he’ll win. And if Hillary runs in 2016, she’ll win—and Andrew Cuomo after her. This means we’ll have at least 8 to 16 more years of a Democratic presidency.

    • Ah sweet sweet Tad.  You ARE ever so entertaining.  There won’t be much left for them to run after the next 4 years.   So, what’ll it be?  war, economy, or squalid scandal that even you can’t ignore?

      Just a question of time now.

      • Now the real fun begins.  For sure.

        As obamacare keeps plowing forward there’s going to be a huge crowd of “what happened?” by people who find out that their 10 minute visit with the doctor is an all day affair in the waiting room.  I would invest in companies that sell furniture and magazines for doctor’s waiting rooms.

        The really special moments is when Obama signs treaties that circumvent state law and constitutional protections.  All Harry has to do is find a way to not allow them to come up for vote and they go into effect automatically.

  • And that’s why I’ll enjoy the next 4 disastrous years. You – America- has it coming. Remember that right now 50000+ blue staters go to sleep cold dark hungry in the big govt embrace. You own what’s coming- what’s already here. And I’ll not tire of pointing it out while laughing

  •  

    Not surprising that Obama won…thug party will make sure of that one way or another (same with the SCOTUS decision on Obamacare — not that SCOTUS was ever anything more than a joke anyway…). America’s fate is to become like Europe; like I always say:
    “Government is the price of human nature. Revolutions are how we bargain that price; the Constitution is just an attempt to set a price ceiling…”
    America is just the latest democracy that (part of which) still thinks it can enforce a price ceiling on government (but, when this artificial price ceiling on government/human nature we call the Constitution finally…… expires………..well, then you get the picture…)

     

  • Sorry for double-posting, just getting used to the formatting…

    Not surprising that Obama won…thug party will make sure of that one way or another (same with the SCOTUS decision on Obamacare — not that SCOTUS was ever anything more than a joke anyway…). America’s fate is to become like Europe; like I always say:

    “Government is the price of human nature. Revolutions are how we bargain that price; the Constitution is just an attempt to set a price ceiling…”

    America is just the latest democracy that (part of which) still thinks it can enforce a price ceiling on government (but, when this artificial price ceiling on government/human nature we call the Constitution finally…… expires………..well, then you get the picture…)