Recession Over? Not Yet Says NBER
Some indicators are looking better, but others, not as good:
While the U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilizing from a recession that started in December 2007, it’s “way too early” to say the contraction is over, said the head of the group that officially makes the call.
Gross domestic product estimated on a monthly basis “had a trough earlier this year, but it is way too early to say that it is a true trough rather than a pause in a longer decline,” said Robert Hall, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
So while you continue to hear the happy talk about economic recovery, the experts aren’t yet ready to say whether we’ve bottomed out or are just taking a breather in the midst of a longer decline.