Free Markets, Free People


So How Are The Special Elections Shaping Up?

Right now, if you believe the final Public Policy Polling surveys in New Jersey and New York’s 23rd Congressional district, it looks like wins for the right side of the ideological curve.

In NY-23, PPP has Hoffman at 51%, Owens at 34% and Scozzafava – the GOP’s favored nominee – at 11%. So the insurgent conservative candidate who the GOP is now quite happy to claim, is pulling a majority in the district. Head to head, PPP has Hoffman at 51% and Owens at 38%. The former GOP candidate has chosen to act as conservatives thought she would – she’s endorsed the candidate which most closely matches her politics – the Democrat. Joe Biden will be in the district today to try and push Owen’s numbers up.

PPP’s analysis:

“Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures… The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava’s actions over the course of the weekend.”

We’ll see.

In the NJ governor’s race, PPP has Christie at 47%, Corzine at 41% and Daggett at 11%.

PPP points out that in NJ, the difference is independents going over to Christie’s side in a big way:

“Christie’s advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett’s support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine’s 72% of Democrats.”

Of course this is NJ we’re talking about and 6% would seem to be a pretty significant lead, but there are factions at work which will most likely do whatever is necessary to overcome that.  But the defection of independents to the Republican candidate has to worry Democrats.

And I’d guess that what is happening in the VA Governor’s race is much the same as what is being seen in NJ – McDonald leads Deeds mostly because of a more unified Republican base and the defection of Independents.

Should all 3 go to the Republicans, it will be very interesting to see the spin – from both sides.  Democrats will most likely downplay the significance while privately being very concerned with 2010 right around the corner.  And Republicans will most likely misread the results as some sort of mandate for them and their “big tent” compromising ways.

Suffice it to say these are 3 specials that I’ll actually be interested in following tomorrow, if for no other reason than to hear the establishment party types on both sides explain what happened.

~McQ

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13 Responses to So How Are The Special Elections Shaping Up?

  • Should all 3 go to the Republicans, it will be very interesting to see the spin – from both sides. 

    I would bet very long odds that someone in the White House was assigned to develop that very spin over the weekend. I’ll be interested to see what they come up with too.

    But the more interesting question to me is whether the other two talking point generators for the Left (the New York Times and the Washington Post) have done any prep work in that area. You just know that given the polls, some reporters/columnists may be tempted to assume the hypothetical GOP victories and start writing some spin so they could be early out of the gate on it.

    For me, that’s a big difference from twenty years ago. Then, I assumed they came up with their justifications for the Left after fact. Now I assume they do it ahead of time. Maybe they always did, but I was just naive back then.

    • In fact, the AP has already started their pre-spin:

      GOP victory Tuesday won’t erase party’s problems

      It so happens I agree that Tuesday isn’t going to solve the GOP’s problems, but I’m afraid the AP’s take is all unsupported boilerplate gloom and doom:

      So even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party’s own fundamental problems — divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation.

      The emphasis is mine, and it’s the usual leftist cant: those conservatives are just dying off and being replaced by left-liberals of various demographic persuasions. I’ve been hearing that sort of pseudo-analysis since the 1970s.

  • In the case of NY-23 (a generally solid GOP seat) and NJ Gov (NJ is a cesspool and Corzine is seen as the lowest of bottom feeders even by his supporters) I honestly don’t believe there are any national implicatons vis a vis Obama and his agenda because of these mitigaiting factors (NY-23 is chock full of implications for the GOP but that’s been discussed before)

    It’s the VA Gov race that’s the one that’s gonna hurt- and the one that Rahm and Alexrod have been losing sleep over. If Baracky loses VA, he’s going to be in trouble

  • The GOP won because Congress hasn’t passed Obama’s healthcare plan yet. That’s the signal the voters are sending: we want action, and if you don’t act we will vote in the GOP in a few isolated areas as a signal to you. The voters will not stand for inaction by the Democrats!
    —damn that is pretty good.

    • I have to admit that’s better than anything I was going to come up with. I expected it to be a laundry list of “Here’s all the special circumstances that explain why these elections don’t mean a thing”. Plus a few generic one-size-fits-all excuses that never go out of style: the Rush Limbaugh mind-control rays, how the Democrats just were not tough and dirty enough to take on those Neanderthal Republicans, what’s wrong with Kansas Virginia, that sort of thing.

      • But that’s the first draft only. I think you can improve it – just skip the “in few isolated areas” and just say “Its a clarion call for action. The voters want results. etc.” Hmmmm, Clarion call – focus group that – too religious, or just enough to grab some confused evangelicals?
        p.s. This is how Journolist and Townhouse worked essentially. Let’s brainstorm the meme, critique, then refine it, then mass dump via media and blog.

  • Ah, tight races no doubt.  They’ll be calling in Al Franken before it’s over.

  • This is GREAT news…it means that the radical wingnutz are coming to power in the GOP and dooming it to a generation of irrelevance!  This certainly does NOT reflect on the Christ-like visage, wisdom and capacity of Obama, not in the slightest.  I’d say more, but I’m not hanging around this portal of wingnut crapaganda any longer than necessary.  Plus my pro-seminar “Christlike Visages as a Determinant Factor of US Foreign Policy Success” begins in 20 minutes.

  • McQ… Republicans will most likely misread the results as some sort of mandate for them and their “big tent” compromising ways.

    Not that I don’t believe for a moment that there are GOP politicos who are that delusional, it seems to me that, to the extent that these races DO have national significance, it indicates that conservatism is ascendent, NOT “big tent”.

    That being said, I think shark hits the nail pretty well.  I would only add that the NY-23 race may well indicate the sort of power that Palin has, at least among conservatives.  The GOP grandees should pay close attention to how a single message from her impacted that race.

    HarunThe GOP won because Congress hasn’t passed Obama’s healthcare plan yet. That’s the signal the voters are sending…

    Good heavens!  You’re getting press releases from the Speaker’s office even before the rest of MiniTru!

    ;-)

  • You all realize if enough of this stuff happens, President Imeme will want to pre-empt another episode of Survivor to remind us not to get all wee-wee’d up about this HealthCare thingie and his other awesome goodness wholesome plans for his dad’s funny “furriner” vision of America, right?

  • Should all 3 go to the Republicans, it will be very interesting to see the spin – from both sides.  Democrats will most likely downplay the significance while privately being very concerned with 2010 right around the corner.  And Republicans will most likely misread the results as some sort of mandate for them and their “big tent” compromising ways.

    I would suggest any outcome will be read as a mandate for their “big tent” ways.