More debt pressure on Europe…and US business
Following yesterday’s announcement that Greek debt was downgraded to junk status, today Spain’s debt was downgraded as well. Spain is, in many ways the bellwether for Europe’s debt crisis. Spain has a much larger economy than Greece. So large, in fact, that it may be too big to bail out.
Fortunately, Spain’s debt is still less than 60% of GDP; however, the country is on a reckless fiscal path and the government shows no signs of doing anything about it.
As a result of the growing crisis, the Euro is getting hammered in the FOREX market, while the dollar is soaring. This is, in effect, an interest rate hike for US businesses that export to the Euro zone.
Naturally, this places downward pressure on US export sales at a time where the overall business climate is still weak. So, none of this is good news for the American economy, either.













The PIIGS are going to the slaughter. Meanwhile, yesterday’s dip in US T-bond yields has all but evaporated. So much for US debt being the refuge of last resort.
I know I have asked this before, but I thought the pigs were Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. Who is the other I?
Italy
The six hundred trillion dollar gorilla in the room:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/guest-post-are-interest-rate-derivatives-a-ticking-time-bomb.html
It’s a mixed bag for the US. Yes, our dollars appreciate and that hurts exports. But that also helps us with imports. And we import a huge amount of oil, about 70% of what we consume. A strong dollar is effectively a tax cut for most American consumers. I’m all in favor of exports but the idea that an appreciating dollar is all downside and no upside is wrong.
PIIGS = Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain
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