Free Markets, Free People


Guess what unexpectedly rose again?

If you said jobless claims, you’d be right:

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 471,000 in the week ended May 15, the highest level since the week ended April 10, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 440,000 from the previously reported 444,000, which was revised marginally up to 446,000 in Thursday’s report.

The four-week moving average of new claims, which is considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, rose 3,000 to 453,500.

To give you an idea of what the nation is facing in unemployment, a little chart to make the point:

Remember, President Obama continues to claim that without his pork laden “stimulus” package (something the “party of ‘no’” voted against as a bloc), things would have been much, much worse. Really?

And also remember that when he touted that “stimulus” he promised it would halt the unemployment slide at 8%.  I assume the GOP sees his strategy, given the numbers and the promised results as an effective counter to his claim the “stimulus” worked.

On a non-political note, this week’s claims simply point out that we still have a long way to go before we begin to see a steady improvement in the unemployment rate.  And, with the European crisis festering, we may see it get worse again, before it gets better.

~McQ

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8 Responses to Guess what unexpectedly rose again?

  • As the saying goes, “Past performance is not indicator of future results”…
    ¬
    But seriously, wtf is wrong with these people that they can’t start to anticipate this?¬† Is tomorrow’s headline gonna be “Sun unexpectedly rises in the east”?¬† Maybe “Water unexpectedly wet”?

  • The continuing new unemployment claims of about 450k/week, really call into question the BLS¬† monthly employment situation numbers.¬†¬†¬† It is difficult to see how we can create 288k new jobs (66K temp census jobs and 188k from the birth/death model) and still have this level of new claims.¬† There is something rotten in Denmark.
    ¬
    I think the “unexpected” is because we keep getting these rosy, things are getting better, scenarios.¬† You may also have noted,¬† from yesterday’s CPI report, we are tending toward deflation.¬† That is not a sign of an impending recovery and is probably keeping¬† Bernancke awake at night.

  • At what point will people begin to ask for an analysis of why these figures are unexpected?¬† Because if the employment situation was expected to get better, then it must have been based on something.¬† And if the situation unexpectedly got worse, then that something failed, or failed to happen.¬† At what point do we start to associate those expectations with the current administration, and at what point do we associated those poor results with them as well?

  • Guess what unexpectedly rose again?
    Um… The chocolate ration?

    / sarc

    Tonus
    At what point will people begin to ask for an analysis of why these figures are unexpected?

    Depends on which “people” you mean.¬† For those of us on the right, the figures are seldom (if ever) “unexpected”.¬† The economy is in the dumper, we’re not doing anything right to change this, and hence it’s no surprise at all to see unemployment go up.¬† For the left, however, they will NEVER ask that question any more than a cultist would ask why his guru’s predictions never quite seem to come true.¬† This is a major problem: we can’t begin to fix our problems until the folks in power (i.e. the left) start admitting that we’ve really got one.¬† So long as they continue to believe the¬†fantasy that things are getting better, they have no¬†motive at all to change course.

    • I guess I’m thinking about the media, although it’s not about when they’ll wake up, as much as it is when they will finally throw Obama under the bus.¬† They’ve been helping the President sell us the whole package of excuses so far.¬† It’s Bush’s fault.¬† It’s an inherited mess.¬† Without the stimulus it’d be worse. They’ve also been helping to sell the whole package of empty promises.¬† We’re coming out of the recession.¬† Unemployment is going down.¬† Job recovery is right around the corner. Now they’re busy selling us the rationalizations.¬† Unexpectedly.¬† Unexpectedly.¬† Did we forget to mention that this was unexpected?
      ¬
      My reasoning at first was that at some point there will be an awakening among the public at large, where it suddenly dawns on them that if bad things keep happening unexpectedly, then it means that we’re falling short of expectations.¬† But now that I think about it, that has already happened.¬† And the media’s response to that outcry is to call people “teabaggers” and racists.¬† I don’t think the media can (or will even try) to save face after all of this.¬† The easiest thing will be to tread water until things get bad enough that they can then blame the electorate for putting Obama in the White House.¬† Maybe that’s what they’ll do, and they’ll wonder the whole time why they’re going extinct…

      • TonusMy reasoning at first was that at some point there will be an awakening among the public at large, where it suddenly dawns on them that if bad things keep happening unexpectedly, then it means that we‚Äôre falling short of expectations.¬† But now that I think about it, that has already happened.

        I’m not so sure.¬† Certainly there are people who have figured it out and know we’re on a fast-track to economic ruin, but there are other people who either haven’t bothered to think about it or, worse, believe that things are actually GOOD and getting better (especially compared to the Great Bush Depression of 2001 – 2009).¬† Taken together, I fear that these two groups of people are in the majority.

        Even among people who are starting to worry about our debt and unfunded obligations, there is not a solid consensus about what to do about it other than stop spending quite so much.¬† Who takes the hit?¬† Who do we tell, “No more money for you”?¬† DoD?¬† Retired union and government workers?¬† Granny on Social Security?¬† Sick Aunt Sally on Medicare?¬†¬†By the time we get it sorted out how we’re going to dig out of the hole, I fear that it will have collapsed on top of us.

        As for MiniTru and their credibility, they increasingly have none among right-wing Americans.¬† The problem is that they are the only game in town.¬† Even blogs rely on the major news outlets for their information.¬† We’re not far from being like people in the old USSR: they KNEW that Pravda and Investia were packed full of distortions, half-truths and outright lies, but read them anyway.

  • Unprecedented