Free Markets, Free People


Spinning the unspinable – jobs report weak

President Obama is out telling workers at a trucking company in Hyattsville, Md that the new job numbers, 431,000 hired last month, shows the economy is “getting stronger by the day”.

Is it? It tells you something about credibility when you immediately question declarations like that, but that’s been the mantra for quite some time and it really hasn’t borne itself out as time progresses.

In this case 431,000 looks like a “good” number and seeing the unemployment rate drop from 9.9% to 9.7% would certainly seem to confirm that.

But the numbers really don’t support the spin. Of the 431,000 new jobs, 411,000 were temporary census jobs with the government that will go away at the end of the summer.

“The U.S. employment data was disappointing,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, in a statement. Mr. Chandler noted that private-sector job creation, a crucial measure, reached only 41,000, compared with expectations for 180,000 and a three-month moving average of 155,600.

It only had a net gain of 20,000 private sector jobs, far below the 100,000 or so jobs necessary just to maintain the employment status quo.

As for the unemployment rate:

“The fact that the unemployment rate ticked down is not really good news,” he added, “as the decline in unemployment was not a function of more jobs but a reflection of people leaving the work force.”

The lack of private sector job growth is being hidden by massive hiring by government for the census.

“These new data do not present a picture of a healthy private-sector growth, and nothing closely resembling the job growth needed to dig us out of our very deep hole,” Lawrence Mishel, the president of the Economic Policy Institute, said in a statement.

He’s right – do the math. 8 million people have lost their private sector jobs since the recession began. As Mishel points out, these numbers don’t at all indicate an economy that is “getting stronger by the day”.

“You would need to be producing 150,000 to 200,000 jobs a month to be making a dent in this,” said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.

When you begin seeing numbers like that – on a sustained basis – then you have some basis for saying the economy is “getting stronger by the day”.

Until then, it’s just so much spin.

~McQ

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44 Responses to Spinning the unspinable – jobs report weak

  • I’d prefer they not come out and ‘oh my God the economy is awful’ all the time (as they DID when Bush was President…..), but by the same token, I don’t want them to fabricate the numbers.

    Reminds of cold war  news from Soviet Russia.
    Aeroflot plane crashes and kills 150 people and Izvestia would boast about recent improvements in scrap metal recycling and an upswing in jobs in the grave digging industry.

    • I remember tuning into CNN’s “Situation Room” with Wolf Blitzer where every bit of news was measured against “how it was bad for the President” …
      Pile up on I-95 … how is that bad for the President ?
      Sex scandal in Chicago City Hall … how is that bad for the President ?

  • The solution is clear,  we need to do the census every year, not every 10.    They’re working hard right now – I got 4 copies of the booklet in the mail,   probably a dozen other pieces of mail reminding me to do it,  some more asking me to do it,  and most recently I got a phone call.   Of course I filled out one copy of the damn thing and returned it months ago.  I’d help them milk this cow some more by sending the other 3 copies in, except I already tossed them.
    <p>
    Dayum,  I think I’m getting the hang of this bitch fest.  It’s addictive.   Give me another week or two and I’ll go all in and start blaming El Presidente for everything!   It’s going to rain tomorrow, dammit.   Damn you Barack Obama all to hell!


     

    • Actually, with current technology, there might be a case for doing away with the census entirely.

    • “Give me another week or two and I’ll go all in and start blaming El Presidente for everything!  ”

      Personally, I still blame JFK for this entire mess.

    • There you go pedro – but don’t play coy, this would just be a continuation of what you did for the 8 previous years. Go ahead, admit it – confession is good for the soul.

    • Oh please.  I’ve been through my census 3 times now.
      First, the one I filled out.  Then the phone call where they reviewed my form.  Then the census worker who filled it out again at my home yesterday, when she was sent to my home by Obama’s minions.
      Only the government can make excuses good enough to do this kind of wasteful operation and do it again.

    • Give me another week or two and I’ll go all in and start blaming El Presidente for everything!

      Well, the present administration has a similar strategy.  They just blame El Ex-Presidente for everything.  It’s as if they’re bringing us all together!

      • Dude, you keep forgetting to include the couple that you have chained in the basement. That will always get you audited.

    • That’s interesting.  I never received a form, nor got a call, nor had anyone from the Census Bureau stop by my apartment.  I’d fill out a form if someone sent me one.  It’s as if my apartment building doesn’t exist.  Granted, it is relatively new, but still, we do get mail.

  • I can’t say with certainty what makes the stock market do what it does…
    but it sure seems like investors are saying something about this news…

  • I think the solution is obvious, Congress must pass, and Obama must sign an immediate law that taxes all private workers. Then hire one million more census workers, but, here is the real kicker. Only hire illegal immigrants!

    Then you can really be progressive!

  • McQ8 million people have lost their private sector jobs since the recession began. As Mishel points out, these numbers don’t at all indicate an economy that is “getting stronger by the day”.

    I appreciate the need for politicians to put the best possible face on even the worst news, but it seems to me that Imeme and his lapdogs in MiniTru are taking it to extremes that would have Orwell taking notes.  About the only time Imeme admits that anything is bad is when he can blame it on somebody else (especially Bush, the GOP or Israel) or else when it’s so OBVIOUSLY bad that MiniTru essentially tells him that he MUST admit it lest he look totally out of touch.

    Anyway, I have a feeling that we’re going to be seeing “the light at the end of the tunnel” and “green shoots” for quite a long, long time before we actually reach the end of the tunnel or see a lush, fully-grown lawn.

    • “quite a long, long time before we actually reach the end of the tunnel or see a lush, fully-grown lawn.”
      Man….you’re going to be shoved forcefully out the other end of that tunnel on the cowcatcher long before you see a green lawn on the side where the “light” appears to be coming from, because that light Imeme is talking about is NOT daylight.

  • Following on the heels of the census hire success, the TAO administration should simply hire every unemployed person for minimum wage. $8/hr * 8 million people * 8 hr/day * 5 days = $2.5B/week or about $75B/year. Way less expensive than the stimulus porker and there would no longer be any unemployment!

    • They can be artists or musicians as per Pelosi’s idea.

      • Or they can clean up oil on the Gulf Coast.  Or have we got to hire contractors for 5x the pay to do that?

  • The Obami have designed an economy that CANNOT thrive.  I am EMPHATICALLY NOT a conspiracy guy, but when I see such studied ignorance of good economic policy…which really is a known quantity…I have to consider Cloward-Piven being at the root of it.  I am struck by the constant contradiction in Obamic statements…bringing the cost of tuition down, while subsidizing students, for instance.  You an take virtually every stanza of this State Of The Union speech, and find this trait.

    • …his State…  NOT “…this State…”

    • Obama has been in office for little over a year. This is not his (or anyone else’s) desgner economy*. In fact the President has rather little power over the economy–  if presidents did we’d always have good economies because politicians like to be reelected.
      This comment section has lots of people sitting around moaning and whining , but no one here is really interested in asking the tough questions or coming up with solutions, just in blaming Obama. You folk are a big part of the problem.

      * See, I am not playing partisan tie-for-tat and blaming everything on George Bush

      • “no one here is really interested in asking the tough questions or coming up with solutions’

        Alas, so true. Perhaps you, in your non-partisan wisdom, could help us by pointing us in the right direction. What are some of these ‘tough questions’ ?

  • One undeniable fact that we have all learned about Obama is; that he is better at stirring up shit than he is at straightening shit out. This clown is going to stir for the duration.

  • How Obama can look everyone in the eye and tell us that temporary census jobs are a good thing is beyond me.  His credibility is sinking faster than oil is pouring into the Gulf.  The Market certainly didn’t buy the supposed good news!

  • Ah, but it’s really great sh*t, Mrs. Kreski!

  • “The government also said 431,000 jobs overall were created last month, but most of those jobs, 411,000, came from the government’s hiring of temporary census workers.

    The Labor Department said private employers hired just 41,000 jobs in May,,,”

    I’m not sure if we can handle a lot more of this good news.

  • The only time Obama speaks truth is behind closed doors to other liberals.  Every time he speaks to the American people, he lies.

  • I think they are setting themselves up for a wack-in-the-head come the end of summer.  Yes, they can claim these 411,000 jobs are a sign of an improving economy, but what happens when those jobs are finished and the temporary workers are again unemployed?  We’ll have, in one month, the number of unemployed jump right back up.  Not only are they being dishonest now, but they’re have to be dishonest again in August by not applying the same standard.  They’ll claim that these lost jobs are a sign of a bad economy, just the loss of temporary contracts.  They’ll claim that it doesn’t reflect badly on the president at all.

    You know what a person is called when they don’t apply the same standards?  “Hypocrite”.

    • Do you know what a person is called when they continue to believe the incredible and contradictory claims of the regime?  “democrat voter” or “journalist”.

      Imeme has learned that there is a significant fraction of the American public and ESPECIALLY MiniTru that will simply not question anything that he claims.  There is another large fraction that doesn’t pay attention until right before an election and hence have no idea that the claims he makes then have no relation to the claims he made six months or six weeks or six days before.  He can also safely count on MiniTru not to enlighten them.

      • I did think about the length of time.  Three months is a long time in the news/blog/political world and I guess that part of their strategy is that the traditional news organizations and bloggers will have simply forgotten these claims by then.  But a strategy based upon your opponent’s stupidity/forgetfulness is pretty lousy.  I’m not a good chess player and whenever I hope for my opponent to be worse than I am, I get trashed.  My point is that I don’t think they’ve thought all the way to August when these jobs end.  They’re focused on the short term gains at the risk of longer term damage.

        • JustinI guess that part of their strategy is that the traditional news organizations and bloggers will have simply forgotten these claims by then.

          Yes.  I think that Americans have short memories about many things.  Politicians and advertizing execs count on this.  “New and improved” is a tried and true ad strategy because it works… even if the product is the same old thing that people have been buying and using for years.

          Justin[A] strategy based upon your opponent’s stupidity/forgetfulness is pretty lousy.  I’m not a good chess player and whenever I hope for my opponent to be worse than I am, I get trashed. 

          If I may expand on your chess analogy, what Imeme is counting on is this:

          “I’m a terrible chess player.  Hell I don’t even LIKE the game.  BUT… my opponent has a very short attention span AND the referee is pretty much in the tank for me.  Therefore, I can move pieces around and even take then on and off the board while my opponent is in the bathroom,  confident that, even if he remembers where the pieces are, the ref will back me up when I claim that I didn’t touch them.”

  • It took 70 years or so for the socialist/communist policies of the Soviet Union to totally fail.  We’re just getting started.  I think the public is totally buying the lies from Obama about the economy.  We’ll have plenty of time to pay for this error.  I just hope as many Leftist as possible are unemployed.  They wanted this hell more than anyone.

  • Eight million?
    Add to that all the folks that had their hours cut, all the folks that were laid off BEFORE the recession hit (the Unemployment rate  bottomed in June, 2007), etc.
    I notice that in many areas, the only job listings are for “Sales”….and there’s tons of those. Go figure!

  • Future global “stimulus” in doubt …

    Finance ministers of the world’s leading economies have been so spooked by the sovereign debt crisis that they have decided they can no longer wait until economies are growing strongly before they remove fiscal stimulus. The meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Busan, South Korea, at the weekend also dropped proposals for a global banking levy, giving countries leeway to do what they thought best for their domestic circumstances.

    …from here on Obama and Pelosi are on their own.
    And, so much for those “cuts” Erb …

    But there were concerns around the G20 that the rush to reduce budget deficits, necessary though officials now thought it was, would undermine the recovery in the near term.
    In a letter to the rest of the G20, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, argued: “Concerns about growth as Europe makes needed policy adjustments threaten to undercut the momentum of the recovery”.

     

  • “President Obama is out telling workers at a trucking company in Hyattsville, Md that the new job numbers, 431,000 hired last month, shows the economy is “getting stronger by the day”. ”

    =====================================================================

    He would have been more believable if he said “The economy is getting stronger by the second.”

  • let’s use round numbers but if there are 400,000+ new census “workers” and there are only ~ 300m people in the US that’s 1 census “worker” for every 750 peep. Assuming 90% of the people are all accounted for that leave about 75 people per census worker to count. At3 phone calls per hour that’s about 3 days work. This is just handout money.

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