Free Markets, Free People


Pool: guess the first use of “GOP peaked too early” in major media

We already know that the legacy left-leaning media is queasy about the Democrats getting hammered this fall. They would like to help prevent it as best they can, though there isn’t a lot they can do at this stage other than outright distortion.

But they can certainly engage in wishful thinking, hoping for a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Via Drudge, I just saw that the GOP is up to ten points on the generic congressional ballot. That’s ” the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.”

Now of course, these numbers are going to wander around a bit in the next few weeks. The article includes this:

One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

That led to a question in my mind. Pundits are fond of a conclusion that I find totally bogus – the idea of “peaking too early”. Certainly any candidate would like for their peak to be on election day, but I don’t believe that the peak is under any candidate or party’s control. I think there are just random fluctuations around bigger trends.

However, the idea of peaking too early is tailor-made for a lazy pundit to use in an attempt to restore hope that the Democrats won’t get thrashed. So, for entertainment purposes only, when do you think a pundit for major media will use that theme, and who do you think will be the first to do it?

(For the record, I’m not denying that the Republicans could still blow it and end up with only modest gains. The establishment Republicans are so out of touch that their wins will mostly be due to their opponents’ blunders instead of their own decision. But at this point they would have to screw up big time, or Obama would have to do something really impressive, to keep the Republicans from either gaining control of Congress back or coming close to it.)

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18 Responses to Pool: guess the first use of “GOP peaked too early” in major media

  • September 9

  • Considering, unfortunately, most Republicans really haven’t done anything, they are just standing still.¬† Its the Democrats that have ‘valley-ed’ if not bottomed.
    ¬
    And I will give them credit for getting the headlines from 6 months ago out of the fore.¬† The media doesn’t let healthcare be brought up anymore.¬† There was going to be a cap and trade push.¬† Even that is quiet.
    ¬
    They just hope that between ground zero mosques and trips to Europe we forget about all that other stuff.
    ¬
    I guess we’re going to find out just how short American’s memories really are.

    • According to Democrat sources, in Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates are running ahead of Obama in the favorability numbers, so they want Obama to stay away.
      The “talking heads” on CNN were lamenting that the Democrat numbers, while showing strength for Democrats in those states, shows the fall from heaven for “The Won”.

  • That “increase” in the Democrat’s favor on the generic ballot coincided with a switch in the method used by Gallup.¬† It did give many Democrats a “false hope” that the election was swinging their way, but the following weeks have proven that any hope it raise or discouragement it may have generated on the “non-Democratic” electorate has been driven into the ground.

  • I don’t think you’ll really hear it at all.

    It’s all about managing expectations, and if everyone thinks the GOP will take over both chambers, just ending up with a tiny House majority will be able to¬† be spun as a major defeat

  • Sept 17 (its a friday)

    Brian Williams

  • November 3rd.¬†

    The MSM will play the “Republicans only picked up 75 seats instead of the widely predicted 200.” card.¬† Given how well Democratics outperformed expectations set for them, you can only look at this as a Dem win and validation of Obama’s agenda.

  • August 28

  • We will not peak until 2014 midterms.
    In physics, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.  In politics, forget equal.  That opposite reaction is the tea party movement. 

    The tea party movement is challenging both parties, as Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen point out in their new book, Mad As Hell. 

    “The key difference is that the left populists are effectively represented by Barack Obama and congressional Democrats who are pursuing their agenda, while right populists are chiefly represented by Fox News and voices outside of Congress‚ÄĒan angrier and potentially more powerful political force.

    “The Tea Party movement is not a flash in the pan, as many have assumed. Nor is it a movement of racist rednecks and ignorant boobs, as its detractors have crudely suggested. To the contrary, it is an authentic grassroots movement of concerned American citizens demanding to be heard by an out-of-touch political establishment. Their concerns are real and their issues are legitimate. Moreover, the new populism is here to stay and it has already changed our politics for the better.”

  • Impressive poll, but I less worried about “peaking”¬† that I am bout taking the House.¬† The Dems needed two strong showings in two election cycless to build this majority. There is just no overestimating how difficult it is to flip the House. House incumbents (frequently aided by gerrymandered districts) enjoy extraordinarily high re-election rates. Even when voters tell pollsters they despise Congress in generic polls, they’ll still vote for¬† their specific representative who is often the conduit by which federal services are delivered or expedited to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in the district. House elections are almost always “local”¬† (in the Tip O’Neill sense).¬† In the almost 100 years since we have been been electing Senators directly (only since the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913) the House of Representatives has never¬† flipped majorities unless the Senate flipped first or at the same time. If conventional wisdom is correct and the Republicans take the House but not the Senate, it would be an historic first… Soooo either the GOP takes both, or they take the Senate and fall just short on the House.
    My complete analysis here: 10 in ’10

  • “Democrats moved ahead in Gallup‚Äôs generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer…”
    Interesting that the D move upward corresponded with favorable moves in terms of GDP, unemployment, the Dow Jones, etc.¬† Now that those markers are moving the other ways so do D fortunes.¬† The usual Correlation !=Causation rules apply but, still, I’m just sayin’…

  • The GOP peaked too early last year in the midst of the Townhall Summer. They peaked too early on 3/10/2010 according to Josh Marshall as quoted by Andrew Sullivan. James Carville and Stan Greenberg felt the GOP peaked too early on 3/31/2010 and would gain 25 house and 6 senate seats. Sam Youngman of “The Hill” wrote on 3/26/2010 that the GOP peaked too early with the election of Scott Brown being the high water mark. Daily Kos, always ahead of the pack, had a Kossack declare the GOP had peaked too early in October of 2009, with the special election loss in NY-23. Ryan Witt of the Examiner.com, weighed in August 6th with the shocking revelation that the Republicans may be peaking too early.

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