Free Markets, Free People


Where are the independents?

There has been a lot written lately about putting too much credence in “early voting” percentages. The CW seems to be that while the numbers may indicate one thing there’s a possibility they mean something else that may, just may, favor Democrats. Seems to me they’re trying their best to make a horse race out of this coming wave election. For instance, POLITICO attempts to make the point with California:

California provides an illustrative example of the complexities of interpreting early returns. According to data gathered by the Atlas Project, a private Democratic consulting firm, 43 percent of California early voters have been Democrats, while 39 percent have been Republicans. Considering the Democrats’ current 44-31 registration advantage in the state, the GOP appears to be outpacing its share of the electorate, while Democrats appear to be staying home. Then again, in the 2006 early vote — a great year for Democratic candidates — each party drew 41 percent, a performance that was below Democratic registration and well above the Republican share.

And what about the indies? By my count that’s 82% of the electorate self-identifying as either Republican or Democrat. That means a huge 18% have identified themselves as neither and will decide the election. It was what made the difference in 2006 when independents on the whole supported Democrats.

Of course California isn’t the easiest state to analyze because of its proposition system and, well, the fact it is California. But the point holds. Many of those analyzing the early vote counts have to limit themselves to percentage turn outs from the 2 major parties because they are mostly assured that those voters voted for their party’s candidates.

So when you see these sorts of numbers, take them with a bit of grain of salt until you factor in this:

One of the most striking findings from The Hill’s polling is that voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks, particularly among independents. In the overwhelming majority of districts, independent voters are breaking for Republican challengers while expressing widespread disapproval of Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.

About all early voting numbers indicate is the level of enthusiasm among base voters. It is the indies who will decide the elections. ~McQ

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9 Responses to Where are the independents?

  • voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks, particularly among independents.

    Once you reach the level of “disgust”, no amount of commercials (featuring a politician and his dog, etc.) are going to change your mind.

  • In the close races, it’s the Dems “margin of cheating”, not the indies, who will decide….

    • “margin of cheating”
      Are you saying there’s something to the accusations that SEIU has jimmied the machines in Nevada?

    • People are more aware, more exercised, and MUCH LESS inclined to let this crap happen this cycle.  There WILL be hell to pay…

      • “People are more aware, more exercised, and MUCH LESS inclined to let this crap happen this cycle.  There WILL be hell to pay…”

        Me of little faith – the questionable vote machines in NC and Nevada have been news for about 24 hours.  Other than a Fox affiliate in Nevada – try finding a MAJOR broadcast media outlet covering these issues.  You’d think there might be some curiosity, ya now, especially in NEVADA, given who Harry Reid is….

        If you know of one I’ll stand corrected, but try and imagine that dead 24 hours of air time occurring sometime between, say 2000 and 2008, even if it was just to make the allegations, let alone PROVE.
        I agree with ya Rags, there ought to be hell to pay, but there won’t be if it’s buried.

      • It’s time to play “Guess the Party!” that media favorite game only played when a member of a certain party(nudge nudge, wink wink) is tied to crime.

        Like I said Rags, we have to know in order to be angry, and don’t count on getting much help by way of  MiniTru.

  • This time they are pulling out all the stops with voter fraud.  When the Republicans get into power the FIRST thing they ought to do is introduce legislation that tightens up the way votes are counted and that provides for a reasonable way to ensure that voters are actual citizens and are actually alive.  

    Then dare the administration to veto it.