Free Markets, Free People


Senate math

OK, let’s start getting into specifics of predicted outcomes this next Tuesday, this time for the Senate

I think for the most part you can comfortably say that it has come down to 6 toss up races which will decide the final tally in the Senate.  Without those 6, the split is 49/45 Democrats (Lieberman and Sanders are counted in the Dem total).

The six in question are NV, PA, IL, WA, CO and WV.  3 of them are open seats (PA, WV, IL).  I say the GOP takes 2 of 3.  Just as Ted Kennedy’s seat is now held by a Republican, so will Barack Obama’s old seat.  I think Toomey wins handily in PA, but Manchin takes WV for the Dems.   So we’re at 50/47.

In the three toss up races, all involving Democratic incumbents, I think the GOP takes 2 of 3 again, with Patty Murray winning in WA for the Dems in a close one.  Angle will just nudge Reid and Buck will edge Bennet. 

Final tally 51/49 Dems.  +8 for the GOP

Possible surprise for GOP – Murray goes down.  She’s within the margin of error in the polls and if there’s going to be a surge prior to Nov. 2nd this year, it most likely isn’t going to be for the Dems.  However, we’re talking Washington state here.

Possible surprise for Dems – Giannoulias pulls off the win in IL.  We are talking about IL, after all.

What wouldn’t be a particular surprise – Reid somehow coming out on top in NV, although I think Angle has done nothing to hurt herself lately and may have even sealed the deal with flowers to Joy Behar (the perfect foil at the perfect time).

Anyway, top end: GOP +8.  And that’s more than I would have predicted 2 or 3 months ago. 

~McQ

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13 Responses to Senate math

  • If the over/under is +8, I’ll take the over.

    West Virginia is indeed the wild card. That whole state has been extremely unpredictable in statewide races. You’re right that it could go either way, and Manchin has decent popularity. But established pols look like they’re consistently getting hammered this year, so I’ll use that to predict against Manchin and say the GOP picks up that seat.

  • I don’t think we will know the actual numbers in the Senate for some time. Anything close is going to recount and possibly to court.

  • Possible surprise for Dems – Giannoulias pulls off the win in IL.  We are talking about IL, after all.

    I don’t think a Giannoulias in IL could be chalked up to HIM pulling off the win…  As you said, this is Illinois.

  • We need WV and IL more than just sheer numbers, if I am correct (always a sketchy proposition!) those are special elections and get seated immediately- meaning they can derail lame-duck session shennanigans.

    I say GOP+ 10  but either way Obama’s agenda is derailed.

  • I’m from Illinois and this IS a special election, whoever wins will be seated for the remainder of Obama’s Senate term and will also  be the elected senator for the upcoming term.   The powers that be thought they could get away with letting Burriss fill out the remainder of Obama’s term, but the State Constitution and our courts didn’t let them get away with it.  So, we have a chance to elect a RINO and hope for the best.  Wish us well, for our country’s sake in the lame duck session.  Kirk will need to have his feet held to the fire, the other guy, ugh, more Obama hope and change.

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