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Iran: crazy is a strategy
Posted by: Jon Henke on Friday, January 06, 2006

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hopes "the news that the criminal of Sabra and Chatilla [Ariel Sharon] has joined his ancestors is final." It isn't news that the Iranian President thinks this — indeed, if he thought anything else, he'd surely be removed from office — but it is an unfortunate marker of the Iranian perception of their diplomatic position that he'd say it publicly.

The closer Iran appears to get to the nuclear bomb, the less rational they're trying to appear. Here's the thing: I don't think President Ahmadinejad is making these controversial comments because he's simply a loose gun. Careless calculators don't generally make it to the top of totalitarian autocracies.

I think Iran is doing one of two things:

  1. using the proximity of Iranian nuclear ascencion and apparent irrationality to angle for better concessions from the EU and the United States, or...


  2. ...trying to provoke an Israeli preemption, so Iran can respond.


Let's face it, if Israel strikes first, Iran will have an unimpeachable case of self-defense. "Mad mullahs with nukes" may be dangerous, but it is not an internationally recognized justification for preemptive war and it would be exceedingly difficult to organize anything but an ad hoc coalition of the willing to defend Israel.

If, indeed, there is even time for such a defense of Israel. Could it be that Iran will respond with a nuclear attack or a, assuming they still don't have nuclear weapons, a radiation attack? If anybody is anxious to end the Israel question once and for all, it's the Iranian auto-theocracy.

Or perhaps Iran is trying to provoke Israeli preemption in order to arouse Arab Nationalism, and rally the Muslim world to resist "Crusader" (i.e., US, Israeli) involvement in the region.
 
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Comments
Excellent cautionary words, especially with some rashly suggesting that Israel should act alone to control this problem for us.
 
Written By: sammler
URL: http://stonecity.blogspot.com
Good post, but realize this, the Middle East has a large number of cross-cutting currents. The MUSLIMS may be unhappy with an Israeli attack, but SUNNI’S and ARABS may not, the end result might be a lot of rhetoric, but not much action. After all, Saudi Arabia doesn’t want a nuclear Iran as a next door neighbor either. None of the GCC states do, nor do Arabs, nor would fundamentalist Sunni’s.

In fact, there are a whole lot of folks who might like an Israeli strike on Iran, the US, the EU, the GCC, Egypt, and the like... IF Israel does it they can complain, but secretly be thankful that they did not have to act.

Though in the case of the US, we will be implicated as any attack will pass, thru, over, or near US forces in the region.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
There’s a third possible reason for Malmood’s arrogance. He sees his raison d’etre to lead the muslim world back to its stated goals of reestablishing the Caliphate. Israel has no place there, it is not about diplomacy and getting better concessions. He intends to do what he says. Remove Israel from the face of the map. I don’t think he’s crazy, I think he means everything he says. The only check on him will come from the mad mullahs who won’t want to see the amageddon he is building.

Once he has his nukes, and he will have them, he’ll bet, like Osama that the West will cave. The West, as far as Europe is concerned, has just about capitulated, and the leftists and defeatists in the US Congress and media are doing their best to prepare this country to be offered up.
 
Written By: Abu Qa’Qa
URL: http://
This whole situation would be solved overnight if the feckless UN and its substituatnt countries would grow some balls and shut down this nonsense.

It beguiles me how Russia is allowed to sell ballistic missile technology AND a friggin nuclear reactor core to the wipe-Israel-off-the-map guy. why the hell do they want to do that in the first place? is it just for the money?

Tell Iran that all countries in the UN will blockade your ports, cut off your pipelines, and boycott all your products untill you do what the IAEA tells you to do. Too much marxist ideology penetrated the UN during the cold war (all "poor" countries must be given the benefit of the doubt), and too many western intelectual elites fearing that the pot is calling the kettle black.

Like dale’s post about his pessimism towards the future of western culture, I guess nobody wants to take a stand and flush out the moral relitivism; or the notion that avoiding conflict is the means to end it.

 
Written By: Ramen Noodles
URL: http://
3) Challenging the very irrational notion that Zionists can occupy Palestine for 57 years armed with their own nuclear weapons at the continuing expense of the American taxpayer.


Yeah CURSE them Zionist swine for hanging onto their territory, granted to them by the UN...Yes, yes, I know the ’47-48 Partition Plan didn’t encompass the Israel of 1967, musch less 1969.

But yes sirree Bob, Book, darn those pesky Zionists, after all they’ve even gone so far as to arm their weapons to prevent the DESTRUCTION of Israel, but never seem to have suggested that Iran had no right to exist.

And "Occupy Palestine" for 57 years... Dude they had an international grant to that section of Trans-Jordan since 1917, really Palestine is a recent creation, circa 1948. Prior to that it was a vilyet of the Ottoman Empire or a Mandate from the League of Nations, but in neither case was it PALESTINE. Palestine was to be the OTHER country formed to accomodate the ARABS in 1948.

So Eretz-Israel occupies SOME that was Palestine and a LOT that WAS ISRAEL, too. And unless you can convince a bunch of well-armed Jooos to go back to a moribund 1947 plan, the final boundary of Israel-Palestin is going to follow, vaguely, the Pre-June 1968 boundaries. I didn’t realize that fighting for your existence and then remaining on land granted to you was "Occupation." What a man can learn in a morning on the Intarwebs.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
I’m perfectly willing to believe that Ahmadinejad is genuinely bonkers; I just don’t attach much importance to this fact, because he isn’t where the real power is.
 
Written By: Matt McIntosh
URL: http://conjecturesandrefutations.net
He isn’t where the real power is, but he couldn’t get there without the real power approving of him being there.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
I don’t think Iran is looking to ’provoke’ Israel. Iran (or, at a minimum, its leadership) wants Israel to disappear. Iran will strike at Israel when it thinks it can win... which, since Iran hasn’t yet attacked, indicates that the Mad Mullahs don’t yet think they can win (defined as either being the last one standing or having the ability to deter Israel from striking back in response to whatever attack Iran employs).

So, the question for Israel is whether Iran will attack once they have nuclear weapons.... and I’m afraid the answer will be yes. If that’s their conclusion, then Israel has no option but to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons... because they would rather have Iran striking back with non-nuclear weapons now than using nukes later.

Unfortunately, as I posted earlier in McQ’s later post, Sharon’s stroke is going to keep Israel from acting. The new Prime Minister is going to want to show that he too is a "Man of Peace"... and acting pre-emptively to take out Iran’s nuclear capabilities ain’t going to win him any Nobel Peace Prizes.... although it might win his people a few more years of life.
 
Written By: steve sturm
URL: http://thoughtsonline.blogspot.com/
I think the main point is: Israel undeniably since 1992 has been trying to get Iran isolated. They pretty much have been very successful to pass the toughest sanctions on Iran by US in the 1990’s during a relative liberalization in Iran, and then now the nuclear issue is an excuse for them to build an international saction regime on Iran through the US and have Iran isolated. Maybe at a weak point have US attack it, pretty much like Iraq. They see Iran as a threat to their global domination. All Ahmadinejad is doing (he is a serogate for the whole regime... dont be fooled by the stories he is a loose cannon) is telling Israel "stop messing with us, we have no problem with hitting you in your core". Well can Isreal take a notice and slow down/reverse course or do they think they can overcome it. The rest is just noise.
 
Written By: Mahmood Agha
URL: http://
They see Iran as a threat to their global domination.
Agreed.
Book thinks Jews control the world, but he’s not anti-semitic. Riiiiiight.

Book, does the current nation of Israel have the right to exist: Yes or no?

It’s a simple question — answer it.

 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
Maybe now JWG can explain why Palestinian real-estate was stolen
I already explained how it never belonged to the Palestinians. As a response, you declined to explain your logic as to how the land belonged to the Palestinians in the first place.
the Gaza concentration camp
This must be the first "concentration camp" in the history of the world in which existed bomb factories, constant attacks against its "oppressors," an independent governing authority from which the leaders visit and negotiate with other world leaders, etc.
does the current nation of Israel have the right to exist: Yes or no?
Maybe in Westphalia but never in Palestine
So does Iran or any other nation have the right to destroy Israel as it currently exists?
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
I’ll take your refusal to answer a direct question with a direct answer as a "Yes."
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
ISRAEL’S HISTORY OF DECEPTION AND CUNNING AND ARROGANCE IN BUILDING THEIR OWN NUCLEAR ARSONEL PUTS THEM IN DIRECT CONFLICT WITH WHAT THEY SO PURPOUSFULLY ARE PURSUEING TODAY. IT SMACKS OF UTTER HYPOCRACY IRAN IS A SOVREIGN COUNTRY WITH AN ELECTED LEADER. IRAN IS SIGNITORY TO ALL THE RELIVENT WORLD BODIES THAT CONDUCT NUCLEAR ISSUES. ISRAEL IS NOT. IF ISRAEL, IN THE WORLD’S EYES, ARE ALLOWED TO HAVE NUCLEAR,CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS FOR SECURITY THEN SO SHOULD IRAN. ISRAEL’S BRUTAL AND UNDEMOCRATIC AND RASIST CONDUCT, ALONG WITH IT’S REFUSAL TO OBEY ANY OF THE UN RESOLUTIONS AGAINST THEM, WARRANT THEM BEING BROUGHT BEFORE THE SECURITY COUNCIL. LIKE ISRAEL, ALL COUNTRYS, INCLUDING IRAN, HAVE THE RIGHT TO PROTECT THEMSELVES WITH WHAT EVER THEY FEEL FIT. IF ISRAEL DID NOT HAVE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR) THEN THE MIDDLE EAST WOULD BE A SAFER PLACE.
ISRAEL, ALONG WITH THE US, ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT HATE THE UNITED NATIONS. UTTER HYPOCRACY.
 
Written By: Mick
URL: http://
Israel is wasting time by not hitting Iran with a knockout punch. Israel has attack subs in the Persian Gulf, that are ready to attack the city of Tehran and other Iranian cities with nukes. Israel should get it over with and exterminate these Moslem cockroaches and rats that live in Iran.
 
Written By: Mike Santos
URL: http://
is there a need for confrontaion and living with a preconceived notion of destruction of isreal if Iran goes nuclear?
 
Written By: Md
URL: http://

 
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