Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, December 06, 2006 The Democrats won the Congress, and as Robert Reich notes, they won it primarily on two issues - Iraq and the economy and their claim they could "do it better". One problem - they have little or no control over either. Like the decisions of George Bush as commander-in-chief of the military, the decisions of Ben Bernanke and his Open Market Committee — the commanders-in-chief of the economy — are beyond democratic control.While the CIC is a bit over the top as a description of Bernanke, Reich's point is valid. The guys / institutions who have the most control or influence in those two areas don't work for them. Unfortunately for the Dems, and based on how they ran their Congressional campaign, the majority of the voting public now hold them responsible for both. Iraq reality: The president remains commander-in-chief until January 2009. And in that role, according to the Constitution, he has the authority to decide defense policy and military strategy. Unlike Lyndon Johnson, who felt the pressure in 1967 when public opinion turned against the Vietnam War, President Bush is not up for reelection, so public opinion won’t sway him. The president said recently he'll stay the course in Iraq — even though the administration's own intelligence review says our presence there is causing more terrorism, not less.Other than cut off funding (something Nancy Pelosi has said they won't do) and oodles and gobs of inquiries and hearings there's really not much Congress can do to influence Iraq if Bush digs his heels in. The Constitution gives him the final say. However, right or wrong, those that voted the Dems into office aren't going to accept their powerlessness as a legitimate excuse. They said they could do something about it and now it is expected. [As a side note, and speaking strictly politically, it seems that had Republicans kept control of Congress it was in their best interest to end the war prior to the '08 election. Now it may be in their best interest to keep it going through the '08 campaign and blame the Dems.] Economic reality: The economy is also out of the hands of Democrats or the American electorate, notwithstanding that most Americans say they don't like the way it's being handled. Because of the huge budget deficits, fiscal policy can't be used to fine tune the economy. The only lever that counts any more is monetary policy, which means Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee are the only game in town. Bernanke said last week that outside of the automobile and housing sectors, economic growth remains solid, and a tight labor market could spur inflation. Translated, this means the Fed won't lower interest rates. It may even raise them.Certainly Bernanke and the boys are a big economic influencer and that group is outside the control or influence of the Congress (by design). Again, right or wrong, if the economy goes south, the Dems are positioned perfectly to take the political fall. While all of this, unfortunately, speaks to the basic ignorance of a vast sea of voters on how all of this works, politically that's irrelevant. When you sell yourself on some nebulous slogan such as being able to do a "better job" in areas you have no real control and and you get the job, you'd better be able to deliver. Right or wrong if people buy into your sales pitch and you don't deliver, there will be political consequences. If we're still in Iraq in '08 with an economy going sour at the same time, Nancy Pelosi may find herself having enjoyed one of the shortest Speakerships in Congressional history. And I, for one, would have a tough time mustering much sympathy for the plight of her or the Democrats. |
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